I think FI starts well before day 7 though. It might all go wrong but the only consistency at the moment is inconsistency 

I am a big model watcher myself, but interesting charts are not half as interesting as actual interesting weather, but neither have been forthcoming this winter. I speak only for my locality though but never before have I witnessed a winter quite like this for sheer, unrelenting humdrumness.

Don't worry, I'm sure it'll scoot off once pressure decides to build to our northeast.

One step forward two steps back from this evenings runs. Models are very volatile at the moment. It seems to me as if they can see the east winds hitting the trop but do not know how to model them although they all seem to have one thing in common and that is to much energy breaking off from the Canadian vortex and spilling into the Atlantic.
Whether this is just a blip or something new the models have picked up on will probably need a couple of days runs to verify. If this is the case then any chance of deep cold reaching our shores would be put back at least another week.
Very glad ecm t240 charts rarely verify fingers crossed.

ECM Ops have indeed been poor  accuracy wise192h + this winter truly shockingly bad on occasions . And once again the ECM Mean is much better for cold 192 + in fact a cold set all the way.

Are you talking about operational runs in FI, or trends within the ensembles?

You’ve been round the block enough times now to realise that you cannot make sweeping judgements based on operational output, especially beyond Day 7, and especially given the volatility of the output at present. 

Also, for the love of GOD, please give it a rest about the MetO long ranger. :D 

In an interconnected system it's difficult to accurately ascertain cause and effect, but I believe the deep cold plunges into the Canadian/US North-East and the resulting temperature gradients are the major cause of our difficulties in establishing any HLB. Until this situation ameliorates we are chasing shadows.

Well said, Steve.

Ian has been predicting since circa Boxing Day that pressure will eventually rise over Europe, that the polar vortex will intensify and that the MetO will eventually drop their forecast for cold in their long range forecasts. So far, none of those have happened and I see no indication of pressure rising to any great extent over Europe in the op runs.

Ian must be looking at different runs to many of us, I reckon.

Definitely wouldn’t describe these as poor.

Generally cold with snow opportunities on a NW’ly. 

At a glance the ECM 12z ensemble data look quite encouraging.

Yes, no great change really - a much milder than average Op obviously in the latter stages.

That is always the case for all the models. Models simply are not good enough to accurately predict anything past 168hours.  They are pretty much  meaningless at that range and  should be used with the ensembles for broad trends only.

Yes, we know who the greatest offenders are and they’re best ignored. It would help if they backed up their comments so others could debate their points but that’s a tall order too!  We know who the level headed and objective posters are and we do have quite a few, thankfully!  

This may be unpopular, but I quite enjoy all but the personal attack posts here on two.

I don't mind if someone's view is different, opposed, challenging to mine, as I just love the weather, discussing it, the pros and cons, ideas, notions, events...it's really great to be in a chat room with fellow weather geeks or anoraks (or whatever we are).

I have learned so much from this forum, prompted to learn so much more after reading posts. It's impossible as humans to completely separate science from aspirations, hopes, dreams and desires, because it's the mystery, the uncertainties, and the beauty of the weather, from eye-candy charts to the silent, dazzling, transformational beauty of a snow fall, that made us weather enthusiasts, or whatever phenomenon it was...so bring it on you captains of meteorological oceanography and mayhem, and I'll muse with everlasting delight at the multiple views and thoughts about my passion and guilty pleasure - nothing more innocent than the weather, and model gazing. 

Sorry - I'm done now - promise

Hi hum.

Um bingo....

It seems in last double set of 00z and 12z runs that we seem to be stuck in a rut ahem.

The Stock NW’ly flows, back off, then 2 or 3 days the UK get’s wet or dries up regularly, if they can show some accuracy then I bless them. 

I feel distressed and fed up with seeing the ECMWF, UKMO and the GFS try to pin down accurate enough forecasts with Caveat’s thrown in for good measure, the mild sector, High ridges and cold sectors affecting the UK weather.

Bigger effects upstream keep spoiling our chances for sustaining any lengthy cold and wintry conditions in it.

Agree with Arcus, not much has changed really.  Still an established euro trough on all models on the distant horizon of 168 hours.  Its difficult to predict the atmosphere even before this when the atmosphere hardly knows what its doing following the SSW, so I think I would refrain from commenting on the quality of the models at this particular time even if my knowledge warranted it.

I have been following the MJO prediction phase charts in the last week.  After wandering around the less favourable phases 4 and 5 it has shown signs of staying slightly amplified and moving across phases 6 and 7 as we get towards the end of the month and into February. (More favourable for -NAO)  The latest ECM demonstrates this.  (See link).  The GFS only moves it across Phase 6 and then it loses amplification.  Something to hang onto with the decent ECM trop ensembly tonight.  Still learning the basics on background signals but for anyone else who is the bare bones of the MJO are on an excelent met office article (link 2). 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/atmosphere/madden-julian-oscillation

Let's hope the 18z Op and Control run follow in line with ensembles (around 1st Feb) when they come out shortly!?

Caz, Thanks for your note. I have cleaned things up a little by using the little known function “hide users posts”. Its a gift  , and its retrospective..

Just check the 18z GFS and no wonder?! 

This would be a snowfest of news worthy proportions.

Very interesting.

Well it blows the low up to far west again not what we want but might be ok later. 

From the 00z to the 18z :

1st Feb:

00z (easterly)

06z - North easterly).

12z: - Hello pest from the west? Long time no see!?

18z - (downgrade continues!). At this rate we won't get an easterly in early Feb now...!?

After the failed easterly this week it now looks like that LP will not sink southwards next week to give us a north easterly then? Ok! that's cool!

The ECM 12Z was the give away really! 

End of Jan ending on a mild and wet note so it seems!?

18z GFS not very inspiring in the short term if you want snow.

However the 18z ICON has more interest

Significant snow possible for the Border regions on Saturday is being shown

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019012318/iconeu_uk1-42-68-0.png?23-22

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019012318/iconeu_uk1-42-71-0.png?23-22

Then we have a stalling front coming in from the west early on Monday which could give significant snow across many western and central parts away from the far SW.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019012318/iconeu_uk1-42-105-0.png?23-22

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019012318/iconeu_uk1-42-108-0.png?23-22

Further out the GFS is showing possible widespread snow on 3 Feb but that is well into FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019012318/gfs-2-252.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019012318/gfs-2-264.png?18

There will undoubtedly be snow at times for many areas over the next couple of weeks. As it will often be marginal the details will change right up to the last minute.