The Weather Outlook

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The Beast from the East
23 January 2019 14:35:42

 

Based on yesterday's events, you're silly to rule out snow in the south from a setup like this. 

The outlook is cold and fairly wintry - detail currently uncertain. 

Uppers btw http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_2.png

Cold enough for snow across the entire country. Showers would push a long way inland due to the westerly tilt.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes, but for the SE you really need an easterly. Very few showers will make it here 

You will be fine up there with that set up

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Chiltern Blizzard
23 January 2019 14:40:12

 

Yes, but for the SE you really need an easterly. Very few showers will make it here 

You will be fine up there with that set up

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

But didn’t yesterday’s snow from a NW’erly reach Dover?!?

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
sunnyramsgate
23 January 2019 14:41:06
And Ramsgate
BaryBazz
23 January 2019 14:41:20
Very short memory , we had a very nice dumping in the SE yesterday.

Totally unexpected and much appreciated With almost all sources forecasting rain.

LeedsLad123
23 January 2019 14:48:20

 

But didn’t yesterday’s snow from a NW’erly reach Dover?!?

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Wasn’t that from a trough?

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
23 January 2019 14:56:15

 

But didn’t yesterday’s snow from a NW’erly reach Dover?!?

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

I mean settling snow. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
23 January 2019 14:57:45

Very short memory , we had a very nice dumping in the SE yesterday.
Totally unexpected and much appreciated With almost all sources forecasting rain.

Originally Posted by: BaryBazz 

The showers barely got past London. We had a little which didn't settle

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

picturesareme
23 January 2019 15:01:38

Very short memory , we had a very nice dumping in the SE yesterday.
Totally unexpected and much appreciated With almost all sources forecasting rain.

Originally Posted by: BaryBazz 

What showers exactly? 

Heavy Weather 2013
23 January 2019 15:02:37

 

The showers barely got past London. We had a little which didn't settle

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I had snow for about 1.5hrs yesterday evening in Stratford and it settled on favoured surfaces.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
23 January 2019 15:03:26

 

Wasn’t that from a trough?

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

It was from a weak occluded front. 

Occluded fronts have a region of warm air aloft, surface troughs don't.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
23 January 2019 15:03:27

 

Based on yesterday's events, you're silly to rule out snow in the south from a setup like this. 

The outlook is cold and fairly wintry - detail currently uncertain. 

Uppers btw http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_2.png

Cold enough for snow across the entire country. Showers would push a long way inland due to the westerly tilt.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I'll hopefullt be up north east at that point and this looks crap for snow.. Just cold, breezy and sunny.

Heavy Weather 2013
23 January 2019 15:03:38

 

Based on yesterday's events, you're silly to rule out snow in the south from a setup like this. 

The outlook is cold and fairly wintry - detail currently uncertain. 

Uppers btw http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_2.png

Cold enough for snow across the entire country. Showers would push a long way inland due to the westerly tilt.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I agree Joe.

IMO I was dubious. But I am very optimistic now for the next few weeks.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Polar Low
23 January 2019 15:15:39

Really? Think you have that wrong

 

 

I mean settling snow. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2019 15:16:49

 

 These would suggest snow will be more than possible for London over the next couple of weeks. Genuinely surprised some are still whining 

 

 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chiltern Blizzard
23 January 2019 15:32:33

 

 These would suggest snow will be more than possible for London over the next couple of weeks. Genuinely surprised some are still whining 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

Some would whine if it were showing -2c maxes and 6 inches of snow persisting for a fortnight, as it wouldn’t be showing -10c maxes and 2 foot of snow persisting until April!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2019 15:33:49

ICON starting the 12s off well . Easterly winds back on the menu perhaps 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
BaryBazz
23 January 2019 15:33:49

 

 These would suggest snow will be more than possible for London over the next couple of weeks. Genuinely surprised some are still whining 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

Totally agree we had a good couple of hours in North London yesterday and it was great to see after all the false starts.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2019 15:36:23

Some sensible and grounded posts today!  I think some people have been too fixated on the LRF’s recently, chasing rainbows.  I don’t know why some throw their toys out, when we all accept that anything beyond five days is not reliable.  Yes, it’s disappointing when your preferred weather doesn’t materialise but that’s how it goes!  This is the MO discussion thread, so discuss what you see and the possible scenarios, but remember they are only possibilities, not prescriptive forecasts.  

Just for the records, my part of the country hasn’t got snow, so it’s not just parts of the South.  But it is much colder so I’m hopeful and will be grateful if I get some, whichever direction it comes from!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gooner
23 January 2019 15:41:30

 

Yes, but for the SE you really need an easterly. Very few showers will make it here 

You will be fine up there with that set up

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The far SE you are referring to, Oxford and surrounding areas got a good covering yesterday evening 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Russwirral
23 January 2019 15:50:46

Icon making a little bit more of tonights events for the east of England, most notably the North york moors down to the Humber and the surrounding areas. West of the pennines seems seems to be more rain.... but that could always change last minute if conditions turn marginal.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Lionel Hutz
23 January 2019 15:54:14

Some sensible and grounded posts today!  I think some people have been too fixated on the LRF’s recently, chasing rainbows.  I don’t know why some throw their toys out, when we all accept that anything beyond five days is not reliable.  Yes, it’s disappointing when your preferred weather doesn’t materialise but that’s how it goes!  This is the MO discussion thread, so discuss what you see and the possible scenarios, but remember they are only possibilities, not prescriptive forecasts.  

Just for the records, my part of the country hasn’t got snow, so it’s not just parts of the South.  But it is much colder so I’m hopeful and will be grateful if I get some, whichever direction it comes from!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 Pretty much sums up my thoughts too. Our current conditions are so much better than what we had over Christmas and the first half of January. We are now experiencing below average temperatures, frosts and a good chance of some snow for most of us. Even if it could it be better, it could certainly be a lot worse too.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Rob K
23 January 2019 15:57:54
Big change at just 90 hours on the GFS, with the cold air held further west. -2 to -4C 850s down the spine of the country rather than -8C on the 6Z.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Shropshire
23 January 2019 16:18:11

Looks like it's going wrong again at day 6 , both the UKMO and GFS picking up a developing system off the Seaboard that it is going to run NE and break any link in the Atlantic/Greenland heights.

 

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doctormog
23 January 2019 16:18:27

Big change at just 90 hours on the GFS, with the cold air held further west. -2 to -4C 850s down the spine of the country rather than -8C on the 6Z.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Synoptically it is a pretty small change which would mean the difference between the risk of snow or rain and maybe wintry showers. For what it’s worth the t850s on the UKMO are more similiar to the 06z GFS op run than the 12z one and ICON is in between but a little closer to the 06z option.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gooner
23 January 2019 16:18:37

Deep low to the NW on this run

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



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