Geographically Oxford is south Midlands not southeast or south.

Anyone want to hazard a guess what the 12z MetO would bring?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Cold, but cold enough for snow?

I think it is, but hard to decipher without the 850's/dewpoints.

They vary but are generally around -5°C (and are available on Meteociel). Cold but perhaps not cold enough for low ground.

SE Britain Southern Britain  not England , 

Milder air heading North next Thursday on this run - this is going to look nothing like the 06z in FI.

So turning milder in the south from midweek next week not colder then? - If 12z run verifies! 

I am sure the 18z GFS op will look nothing like this one, mainly because it shows loads of snow up here next Thursday.

Sean, one system ploughing through the country in a generally uncertain outlook next week does not mean turning milder. Having said that, as this run shows, any feature like this brings with it an enhanced risk of significant snow. 

The pattern/trend is much more important than specifics and that remains cold.

Not really for the South. If we can't get a break between Atlantic systems then we will be back in a conventional zonal pattern before long.

Yes it is a generally cold pattern as has been been shown for weeks, that does not and has not precluded milder interludes like the one shown in this single GFS operational run. 

A single op run does not negate two or more weeks of the developing and then actual conditions/outlook similiar to this no matter how many times you say the word zonal 

I would be surprised if the 12z GEFS set abruptly changed this long term trend.

I'd agree, -5C is not cold enough in a westerly setup. Although the very high instability will create some really heavy showers which will have the intensity to fall as snow to lower levels in the NW.

Last night's snow was a welcome and a surprise in the S.E. Nevertheless some people think that was a "dumping" of snow. And what causes some of the different perceptions is an age thing I think. The older members would have expected to see what happened last night several times in most ordinary winters pre 80's and think of a dumping as a level foot of snow and 15 foot drifts, although of course less common. But six inches of snow would occur in winters not on the records as a "special" winter. So their expectations are higher. 

That system on the 31st GFS 12Z is an absolute beast of a snowmaker. Very well defined warm occlusion moving into cold air. Its about as good as it gets.

No. Snow to begin with for some areas but  much milder air is moving very quickly NE. 

I was going to say...?

I can almost feel the spring-like warmth of the mid-February sunshine amongst "April"-like showers under slack winds at the tail end of the 12z run.

I'm done with this winter in terms of "snow hoping", time to start looking forward to the first real bit of spring-like warmth and the latest run gave me a slight glow to my heart. I've already started browsing around for this year's summer gear . . .

After a disappointing GFS Op the Para looks much more like it decent easterly by 168h.

I’m sure I am not the only member here irritated by comments made on a single model’s run with unremitting and somewhat tiresome bias, either cold or mild. I know its been suggested before but perhaps its now time to split this discussion between thoughtful commentary on longer term, perhaps week-long threads on “Model Output Trends” and also have a seperate thread, 4 times a day, for each (GFS) model run for those whom wish to make “oh yes it is” or “oh no it isn’t” or “isn’t it a disaster/terrible/I’m never going to trust the models again” comments?

I really enjoy reading the thoughtful, balanced and informed commentary. And we all know whom those people are. We also know whom posts every 2 minutes, sparring with each other. Over the years we have lost a number of the former group, politely departing, perhaps because of the latter.

I’ve been on this Forum 11 years but have posted infrequently having neither the interest in sparring nor the deep knowledge to genuinely inform. So please see these comments as trying to be positive and constructive. With split threads, everyone can then have their say, and say what they wish to within the governance rules, and perhaps have a happier and more popular Forum.

Jeff

12z GFS ensembles for London:

Op run is swinging rapidly from run to run and from very cold to very mild to cold etc!!

There does seem to be less high pressure over Greenland across all the 12s than earlier runs in the day. Still decent for marginal events though 

Thats a great succinct summary of the current situation. It is also highlighted by the differences between the GFS op run and GFSP at around a week out. Looking at specifics, which change with each run and often each ensemble member can be entertaining, but it is really not very helpful as a forecasting tool (despite occasional model eye candy!)

The ensemble data seem largely unchanged (perhaps very marginally cooler) on the 12z GEFS suite, with quite a few “wilder” options.

If you haven't done so have a look at the 12z Para it really is a lovely snowy for all run, easterlies,  north westerlies ,  northerlies the lot. Pete Tong by 300h but job done.

 Remember the Para is a better model statistically than the old Op so we should pay more attention. 

Agreed.

As it stands, next Tuesday is one to watch. 

Could be similar to yesterday. 

Well it's hope this comes about for 'Pete's Sake!' 

Had one failure for the end of this week (no easterly) and this weekend's northerly is looking less potent looking at the 12z GFS Op!

But you're right maybe less attention towards the Op run and more attention towards the Para run?

What I have notice and is very noticable is how the HP struggles to build over Greenland or rise northwards etc or when it does start to build it get's pushed back same for the HP over Iceland or Scandi etc any HLB and this could be down to the sheer fact that there are a number of nor easter winter storms that are starting to develop off the eastern seaboard of the USA, the Azores HP and perhaps the fact that we are transitioning into a westerly based QBO? What would you say is the main reason we have struggle to get any sustained HLB!? We have had the SSW, split in PV and reversal of zonal winds at both 10 and 30hpa - What more do we need!?