BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Chilly and unsettled with snow at times

Wednesday 23 January—Sunday 27 January

A generally cold end to the week

In our last update, we thought that this week would be colder than normal for the time of year and that there would be a chance of some wintry showers. Whilst the first half of this week has lived up to our expectations, with many areas of the UK already having had frosty nights and some snow, the end of the week now looks just a little different to our expectations.
Wednesday is expected to be a cold day across the country temperatures only reach low-to-mid single figures Celsius in many areas. There will be the chance of showers, mainly in the north and west but feeding further south and east at times.

The showers will be wintry on high ground and there could be a little sleet or snow to lower levels at times. Wednesday night looks to be cold and largely dry, and Thursday should also be mainly dry, although rain and hill snow will edge into the north-west of the UK later. The outlook for Friday and Saturday has changed. A warm front is expected to move in from the Atlantic on Thursday night, so Friday will be cloudier than previous days, but it will also be a little milder. Frost is unlikely on Friday night. The mild spell will be short-lived, because although Saturday will start relatively mild, a front will move southwards across the country re-introducing cold air to most areas by the evening.

Sunday looks likely to be cool and showery, with winds coming from the north-west, and with a chance of wintry showers in some parts of the UK.

Monday 28 January—Sunday 3 February

Staying cold with further snow risks

Low pressure will continue to be a significant factor in the weather for the UK, so we expect the weather for the end of January and start of February to remain rather chilly and unsettled. There are some signs that the low pressure systems will be a little further south though, which would expose the UK to occasional spells of cold north or north-easterly winds. We don't see any signs of any sustained easterly or north-easterly winds though, so there are only limited chances of us seeing another 'Beast from the East' similar to the one we saw last winter.

Apart from the increased chance of north-easterly or northerly winds, the weather is expected to be rather similar to what we are expecting for the coming few days i.e. unsettled and chilly with showers, some of which will be wintry, and perhaps some more persistent rain at times. The north of the UK is most likely to see any significant snow, although we can't rule snow out in southern areas. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for Atlantic low pressure systems to track further north across the UK. This would mean it will be wetter, windier and milder.

Monday 4 February—Sunday 17 February

A little less cold, but still a chance of snow

There continues to be the likelihood of some cold and perhaps wintry weather through mid-February, but if anything, it looks likely to become a little less cold by the middle of the month. Temperatures are still expected to be a little below normal, but there will be some less cold interludes as low pressure systems move eastwards across the UK. The track of these low pressure systems will still be a little further south than normal, so central and southern England will be a little wetter and windier than normal, but northern areas will be a little drier and less windy.

There will be a chance of some wintry weather, with snow possible in all areas but most likely on high ground in the north. Again, the main alternative to our favoured forecast is for low pressure systems to track further north than expected. This would mean that the UK would be a little milder with temperatures near normal, but it would likely be wetter and windier in all areas.

Next Update

Next update: Will the threat of very cold weather re-emerge, or are we set for a more 'normal' end to winter?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Very unusual there to see a snapshot of the ECM ensembles (for "the middle part of the country"), along with a discussion of "error bars" - the bits I knew as the 10th and 90th percentiles.

Saw this earlier, good update that. 

Next week

Rather cold
Often windy
Rain and snow at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46981658

Tonight's forecast made a big point of a NW cold flow with rain  and some snow but emphasised not that cold and no big freeze. Of course he can only see a week ahead the same as us atm.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Jan 2019 to Thursday 7 Feb 2019:

Cold with blustery wintry showers on Tuesday, these will be most frequent across western parts, although some central and eastern parts staying predominately dry with sunny spells. Wednesday will see a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers, although less frequent and mainly confined to eastern parts. Beyond midweek, the unsettled weather looks set to continue, with further bands of rain and hill snow moving east or southeast across the UK, interspersed with brighter showery interludes. Snow remains a risk, mostly in the north, but perhaps further south too, and frosts could be quite widespread. There is still a chance that even colder conditions may develop during early February with winds swinging round to the east or northeast, bringing an increased possibility of snow.

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Feb 2019 to Friday 22 Feb 2019:

This period will most likely start changeable and cold, with spells of rain and hill snow, occasional stronger winds, and brighter showery interludes. As we head further through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northeasterly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of widespread, perhaps severe frosts as well as snow, especially in eastern areas. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the west and northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder spells, bringing the risk of some significant snow, but only if very cold air becomes established across much of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The latter is same as yesterday's  word by word - all that's different is the date:

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2019 to Thursday 21 Feb 2019:

This period will most likely start changeable and cold, with spells of rain and hill snow, occasional stronger winds, and brighter showery interludes. As we head further through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northeasterly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of widespread, perhaps severe frosts as well as snow, especially in eastern areas. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the west and northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder spells, bringing the risk of some significant snow, but only if very cold air becomes established across much of the UK.

Next week

Colder than average
Some sunshine
Wintry showers
Frosty nights

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46995796

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

• Cold weather dominates
• Snow and ice hazards
• Milder interludes

Full forecast for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/25/john-hammond-month-ahead-icy-february/