BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Chilly and unsettled with snow at times
Wednesday 23 January—Sunday 27 January
A generally cold end to the week
In our last update, we thought that this week would be colder than normal for the time of year and that there would be a chance of some wintry showers. Whilst the first half of this week has lived up to our expectations, with many areas of the UK already having had frosty nights and some snow, the end of the week now looks just a little different to our expectations.
Wednesday is expected to be a cold day across the country temperatures only reach low-to-mid single figures Celsius in many areas. There will be the chance of showers, mainly in the north and west but feeding further south and east at times.
The showers will be wintry on high ground and there could be a little sleet or snow to lower levels at times. Wednesday night looks to be cold and largely dry, and Thursday should also be mainly dry, although rain and hill snow will edge into the north-west of the UK later. The outlook for Friday and Saturday has changed. A warm front is expected to move in from the Atlantic on Thursday night, so Friday will be cloudier than previous days, but it will also be a little milder. Frost is unlikely on Friday night. The mild spell will be short-lived, because although Saturday will start relatively mild, a front will move southwards across the country re-introducing cold air to most areas by the evening.
Sunday looks likely to be cool and showery, with winds coming from the north-west, and with a chance of wintry showers in some parts of the UK.
Monday 28 January—Sunday 3 February
Staying cold with further snow risks
Low pressure will continue to be a significant factor in the weather for the UK, so we expect the weather for the end of January and start of February to remain rather chilly and unsettled. There are some signs that the low pressure systems will be a little further south though, which would expose the UK to occasional spells of cold north or north-easterly winds. We don't see any signs of any sustained easterly or north-easterly winds though, so there are only limited chances of us seeing another 'Beast from the East' similar to the one we saw last winter.
Apart from the increased chance of north-easterly or northerly winds, the weather is expected to be rather similar to what we are expecting for the coming few days i.e. unsettled and chilly with showers, some of which will be wintry, and perhaps some more persistent rain at times. The north of the UK is most likely to see any significant snow, although we can't rule snow out in southern areas. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for Atlantic low pressure systems to track further north across the UK. This would mean it will be wetter, windier and milder.
Monday 4 February—Sunday 17 February
A little less cold, but still a chance of snow
There continues to be the likelihood of some cold and perhaps wintry weather through mid-February, but if anything, it looks likely to become a little less cold by the middle of the month. Temperatures are still expected to be a little below normal, but there will be some less cold interludes as low pressure systems move eastwards across the UK. The track of these low pressure systems will still be a little further south than normal, so central and southern England will be a little wetter and windier than normal, but northern areas will be a little drier and less windy.
There will be a chance of some wintry weather, with snow possible in all areas but most likely on high ground in the north. Again, the main alternative to our favoured forecast is for low pressure systems to track further north than expected. This would mean that the UK would be a little milder with temperatures near normal, but it would likely be wetter and windier in all areas.
Next Update
Next update: Will the threat of very cold weather re-emerge, or are we set for a more 'normal' end to winter?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook