The S and SE are by some distance the most represented regions on TWO and it's only natural that they'd look for set-ups that are most favourable to them. 

It does get frustrating, though, when you enter the MO thread and are greeted with so much wailing and gnashing of teeth that you think we'll all be in double-digit temps in a couple of days, but when you check the charts you realise it's not really particularly worse overall for much of the UK, despite the disappearance of the suggested easterly. 

If there was a chart that summarised the situation at day 5 it would have to be this, the ECM mean. Take your pick http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

Yes, the ECM mean charts suggest that there's now pretty good agreement for the next week or so, and even out at day 10 it looks as though the operational solution is pretty highly favoured. One encouraging feature is that that High to our SW is moving further to the west on the last few days of the mean charts.

Yesterdays gfs 12z showed the strongest ridging in the Atlantic of the last few days only to do an about face hours later along with the other models. This could very easily change in a day or two so I would be reluctant to rule out the easterlies making a comeback or stronger high latitude blocking re-surfacing again in the 4 to 10 day range.

hmm. A cold col, after all. 

So basically it looks like serious cold is off the menu for now -  but was it ever actually going to be served up???

We all know the further out you look the less reliable. Model watching is like.... going into a cinema to watch a dramatic soap opera about your town only to come out and re-engage  with reality and then feel disappointed.

It could all change again - we really don’t know what’s actually around the corner. 

Whether it is boring or not, depends on what actual weather we get on the ground.

Earlier, Doctor Mog was stating how verification stats for the models have improved over the years - however, I would like to see the verification stats for the current period, since the models have been ridiculous over the past week or two. Brian demonstrated the point a couple of days ago by posting an upside down ECM chart which resembled the ECM chart from a couple of days previously for the same date.

To my mind, the models are hopelessly inaccurate at the moment beyond t+96 and all we have been doing by looking beyond that is to chase rainbows and unicorns. It could be the SSW not playing out as anticipated, it could be the early solar minimum, it could be climate change, but whatever it is, the main models are full of grit at the moment and they are grinding it down and throwing sand in our eyes. I am no longer interested in eye candy at 10 days, since it always stays at 10 days and I am no longer interested in the mean charts at t+144 unless they show grey gunk, since that will always verify.

Here! Agree more although Easterlies are good for the south for snow as they last longer and the cold is more potent! Last year's beast from the east (Storm Emma) gave us 6 to 7" of powdery dry snow which we will rarely if ever get from a northerly or north westerly!- but in a way, you're right! I want snow more than an easterly - if this weather front on late monday into Tuesday morning brings a good covering of snow then i'll take that!

In summary, I think us SE' sters crave an Easterly, (the beast early the better), because it brings the wrong kind of snow for Abellio Greater (should be lesser - 'cos they're piss-poor) Anglia, but the right kind for us weather lovers, it is a tad disappointing to be teased by, not just any Easterly, but the holy grail of easterlies, akin to the days of old - 47, 63 & 79 etc, but it is true to say that the last GFS control keeps the easterly in place, and all is not lost, but whether it is a downgrade or not, it is certainly true to say that this is the most exciting Synoptics for a long time, beast from the east apart, and that was a roller coaster just like this one. So far all models show an eventual blocked NEster developing and at least the threat of -10 uppers spreading down, so the game of chicken - earlier or late, will keep me glued to the charts. 

As for Tuesday, I remember in the late 80s (not the '87 special but the following winter), it had been poor, and then a benign cool spell, with a hard overnight frost in Bury St Edmunds, was followed by gathering cloud as a front moved in rather slowly. The forts just lasted all day in the odd patch, but at about 1-2 degrees C by PM, that night, the from arrived, and had occluded unannounced, and deposited a hefty 4 inches of snow from Bury St Eds to Epping Forest, lasting all the next day and night before finally milder Atlantic air arrived, after this time forecast of more snow: ironically. 

So in conclusion it's still all to play for a and amazing fun, though I cannot help being a little disappointed we won't get a historic event next week. It may well, however, be full of surprise snow events.

Keep enjoying it as it unfolds...it's free fun... 

Global models are not really designed for pin point accuracy though. They are just one tool for the forecaster to use to make an educated decision about how short to medium based trends would translate into reasonably accurate forecast for a particular region. 

ECM post day 10 still looking very chilly if not cold, but nothing big in terms of weather as the eternal slack high that has dominated this winter is replaced by a slack, slovenly trough feature. Cold lovers will no doubt get their reward in the end, but no such rewards in the offing for storm lovers like me. Ah well, maybe next winter, or maybe the winter after that. 

Even during periods of 'normality' the charts are only reliable out to around five days; even then the specifics change.  Beyond five days has always been progressively less reliable even in normal times: the SSW almost certainly has added a layer of further uncertainty.

I don't agree with your comment about solar activity (minimum) because that should, based on data and research, enhance the probability of northern hemisphere high latitude blocking.

As for the SSW, a reversal of stratospheric winds doesn't guarantee any particular outcome; it just shifts the odds somewhat.

Anyway, I've been through the ECM 12z ensemble mean charts and noted the thickness (500-1,000 hPa) and 850 hPa temperatures for London.  Starting with T+0

Thickness: 530, 530, 531, 522, 522, 527, 534, 536, 530, 528, 526

850s: -2, -2, -5, -6, -6, -5, -3, -2, -4, -5, -6

So, Monday-Thursday are cold; Friday-Sunday are less cold; Monday week begins a descent back to cold.  

Funnily enough, the ICON 18z run has just moved towards JMA - not heard anybody mention Shannon Entropy but the models are clearly struggling at the moment.

As for solar minimum, I only mentioned it because the reduction in solar activity in the current cycles is a new factor for the models to deal with and yes, historical analysis suggests it should enhance northern blocking for our region.

Off topic I know (blame the beer) but these recurring comments always make me laugh.

If there ever was a classic case of wrongly framing something. Back in the late 80’s, what that naive BR spokesman should have said was. ‘The snow is bad. All airports are closed, most roads and motorways are not open. However with the staff that have been able to get to work we are running a service, albeit hauled by diesels as this light powdery snow has caused a problem with our new electric locomotives...’

To my knowledge it’s never been used since although Eurostar I think succumbed to a similar problem a few years ago in the tunnel. 

Gandalf, the 'descent' is a the progged North Westerly, of course once in the westerly pattern from Friday onwards, that may not actually happen or at the very least the uppers downgraded. 

We are back to chasing rainbows tonight with the Euro trough the saving grace for now.

I can see that you're back to your favourite pastime of chasing mild rainbows.

In the reliable timeframe, which we have agreed is no more than five days, we have cold conditions.  Calling it a 'north-westerly' is fine but you have only to look at the temperatures I posted for London to realise it is a fairly potent one.  The values will be lower further north.

I wonder if the unseen advice that MetO responded with on the Media thread in response to Brian's question is actually the NAVGEM and JMA runs?

yes the presence of a decent Euro trough in my mind is the most galling thing about this episode. So many things have clicked into place only to be scuppered at the last hurdle. Any decent action appears in FI again, it’s just so frustrating. 

Not sure I could go as far as calling this up coming mP sourced westerly as 'potent'. Looks pretty bog standard to me.. for April 

😄 You must be joking!

Or blind or still being educated on the charts …………………………….Shirley 

Not joking or blind, but perhaps I am missing something?

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2019/01/19/12/ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2019011912_078.jpg

And ?

I was hoping you would educate me...

What am I missing? 

Anyway, back to current output.

I'm in a jovial mood, so tell me why I think that's an interesting chart (regardless of the evolution thereafter).