Pub's crowded tonight..that's a good sign - last orders, my round! Here's to a Stella 00z 

I hate to say it but i have notice a trend and that's the 00z runs always seem to be milder GFS especially and then they improve and upgrade to cold throughout the day and then go back to square one when the 00z come out!

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Strength of the wind= blizzards in places where snow falls

Looks quite bone dry? One would have thought there would be heavy and drifting snow and yes blizzards to the south and north sea or English channel effect snow' but looks dry! Maybe snowflakes in the wind with (as it stands) 80 - 90% cloud cover in the south??

 

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Right. Looking pretty good. GFS ensembles now consistent and tight for next 8 days with mean generally in range -3C to -7C and ending up at about -6C before the big uncertainty arrives but even from then on the op was a massive mild outlier and the majority are still cold. It would be good to see tomorrow morning's 0z ensembles be similar or better as we don't want a repeat of today's.

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Great start to the day from GFS 

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Looks quite bone dry? One would have thought there would be heavy and drifting snow and yes blizzards to the south and north sea or English channel effect snow' but looks dry! Maybe snowflakes in the wind with (as it stands) 80 - 90% cloud cover in the south??

 

Wont be picked up at his range Tally ( ppn ) 

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Nice start to the day with GFS.

Also, does anyone know why Jiries has stopped posting. I know he moved recently, but he would be excited about now.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=96&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

Stunning FI by the hitherto reluctant GFS, and even the build-up isn't bad! What a contrast to yesterday's 00z, it's chalk vs cheese - and not unsupported. Dust down those sledges!

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Looks like the coldest GEFS update of the winter to date.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

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Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?

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ECM stunning upto day 7 this morning.

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Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?

Certainly a better start to the day than is the usually the case for coldies, a belting ECM rolling out.

 

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Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?

Well it did start on the 17th January so that part is right.....

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Yes, hopefully the start of at least rough cross model alignment today.
Cracking gfs and ECM is delivering a beauty as we speak.

. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now,

Famous last words. Compared to yesterday it looks good, but I'll be much more interested if we can keep this going for another 24 hours. If it's still looking good this time tomorrow, with no wobbles in the mean time, then I'll be getting drawn in!

(The SSW is still ongoing, of course, which will continue to mess up the models a bit. Last night's ECM showed it ending on the 22nd, followed by the briefest of dips negative again on the 25th. The reversal still isn't showing any great signs of downwelling to say the 100hPa level, but it's worth mentioning that at 100 and 150 the zonal winds are much weaker than normal (which should mean weaker and/or displaced jet streams a bit further down).

 

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Stunning 192h from the ECM 

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ECM stunning upto day 7 this morning.

Plus a quite impressive Day 8

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Stunning ECM with everything further west at T192.  -8 850hPA widely across the UK and significant cold pool to our east!

 

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-12c 850s into the east by 216h Lovely stuff 

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Dare we say the beginnings creeping into the reliable timeframe soon if not already?

On another note, the Alps will get another astonishing pasting next week.

We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.
That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.
Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.

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