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This evening's 12z runs look quite promising for cold weather fans. Let's see if the trend continues tomorrow.
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
It will be encouraging if we see some consistency from the 18z GFS data and then as you say a good set of 00z runs, which have been rare recently. On the subject of the 18z GFS and JFF
Current conditions (personal WS)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=15.76,91.00,441
Great 18z so far
Snow for many
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
Broadly the same pattern as the previous run.
Lovely
Strength of the wind= blizzards in places where snow falls
This would bring the charts in line with the scenario this winter has been dominated by.
Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history
Yep, we still get the easterly over the sinking low.
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Very snowy t120... however the pace of change per run is worrying. I think by tomorrow we will be heading towards a fast slider.. followed by HP over the UK.This would bring the charts in line with the scenario this winter has been dominated by.
Originally Posted by: Russwirral
The GFS shows mostly rain at 120hr. It’s a little better a day or two later. Standard easterly muck
Impressive similarity between the 12Z and 18Z at 198 / 204 hours.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Youre right.. i miss read the screen. 147 onwards. Gfs shows alot of snow about. Very mixed atmosphere with cold uppers marginal. Alot of changes to be made til then. But i reckon they will move back to the flavour for this winter. HP / dry / tame.
All snow by 132hrs though.
JMA also a belter this evening
Some fun on tonight’s pub run but short lived. Perhaps FI will throw out another giggle...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
🤮🤮🤮
Originally Posted by: Gooner
You're not wrong: -12C HPA air arrives
Followed by a WALL of precipitation - into frigid air
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
With this and Brexit, we are all
going to lose our sanity lol.
Joking aside, I think just a variation in theme. Happy with that run tonight
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
JMA has always been my most trusted model 🤣
Pub's crowded tonight..that's a good sign - last orders, my round! Here's to a Stella 00z
Originally Posted by: BJBlake
I hate to say it but i have notice a trend and that's the 00z runs always seem to be milder GFS especially and then they improve and upgrade to cold throughout the day and then go back to square one when the 00z come out!
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com
Looks quite bone dry? One would have thought there would be heavy and drifting snow and yes blizzards to the south and north sea or English channel effect snow' but looks dry! Maybe snowflakes in the wind with (as it stands) 80 - 90% cloud cover in the south??
Right. Looking pretty good. GFS ensembles now consistent and tight for next 8 days with mean generally in range -3C to -7C and ending up at about -6C before the big uncertainty arrives but even from then on the op was a massive mild outlier and the majority are still cold. It would be good to see tomorrow morning's 0z ensembles be similar or better as we don't want a repeat of today's.
Great start to the day from GFS
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Wont be picked up at his range Tally ( ppn )