Matt Taylor rightly cautious and non-committal when questioned about the prospects of cold and snow on BBC Breakfast this morning.
As strong as the signals are, we are still several days of model iterations away from calling any scenario that might deliver snowfall. Having said that I personally think Feb 2019 might be one that’s mentioned in years to come.

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The 00z ECM mean in the extended range doesn't get the daytime high much above 3c on the London graph

The ENS mean shows 2cm of snow in the extended range on the London graph

Enough to bring Sodom and Gomorrah to a standstill.😂😂

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_42_53.png 

Milder again for a couple of days after that.

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The 00z ECM mean in the extended range doesn't get the daytime high much above 3c on the London graph

The ENS mean shows 2cm of snow in the extended range on the London graph

For clarity, both of those are from last night's 12z, not today's 0z.

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And from the actual 0z ECM ensembles, we can see that for London the 850s weren't an outlier.

This backs up the SW Netherlands ensembles, of course, which showed that the ECM op's easterly solution was part of a minority cluster. The next attempt a few days later has rather more members, as shown by the spikes down to -14C in the "absolute min" 850s. (EDIT: and the 10th percentile drops a bit too, reflecting said cluster.)

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

 

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The mid range of the 06z GFS op run is, not unusually, entirely inconsistent with the previous (00z) op run.

I think I might wait until the seemingly more consistent GFSP run and GEFS are out, regardless of what eye candy the GFS op may throw up down the line.

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Quite a different profile locally again from 156 - but it’ll probably work out ok in lower res (sic) and again on the next run.
Plenty to resolve yet before moving theory to surface reality.

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The 06z plays out another option to consider. So much uncertainty going forward on where these wedges of heights will set up shop.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_234_1.png 

If you are looking for mild look away now!

06z ICON has rain turning to snow over higher ground as it moves south during Thursday morning. Could get very nasty across Snowdonia, the Pennines and Lake District.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019011206/iconeu_uk1-2-120-0.png?12-10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019011206/iconeu_uk1-16-120-0.png?12-10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019011206/iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?12-10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019011206/iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.png?12-10

I think the changes are more indicative of the GFS op run’s inconsistency rather than the uncertainty, although of course there is some. I’d be surprised if the GFSP had changed as dramatically compared to the previous run in the same timescale.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_234_1.png

If you are looking for mild look away now!

 

Just slightly different to this morning's ECM lol. This to be fair is much more likely though.

 

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I'd describe that 6z GFS as very messy , very snowy for some and completely unforcastable. 

 

 

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I have been eschewing the model output for the past week in the hope of something better being on offer by now.

The output has improved in the last week, but to be honest, the jam is always tomorrow - never getting into the reliable - always at day 10 - sickening really, since this is probably going to be the story of this winter - stellar, snowy output never making it into the reliable timeframe.

The only positive to be had is that Shannon Entropy is evident in the models which are pretty clueless about synoptics beyond about 6 days ahead - a consequence I guess of the recent SSW.

On the topic of the SSW, the PV is torn to pieces, but the danger for the UK is that the end result is a west based NAO and we all know that leads to winter purgatory in the UK (i.e. miserable and snowless).

Meanwhile, southern Germany and Austria are having all our snow.

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Maunder, the comment about the timescale is totally untrue. Unless you were cherry picking very cold and snowy charts, which were always in isolation. The trend has always been a change to unsettled midmonth with colder interludes. That scenario and timing has not changed. There is no agreement on the precise synoptics, extent or duration of any cold.

The 06z GFS op epitomises this perfectly but I have little confidence in it due to massive changes by day 7 compared with the previous run. The GEFS data have been rock solid, no delays no significant changes.

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Interesting final chart on the high res section of the GFS6z. No doubt it will be gone on the next run.

A significant rain to snow event being shown for most of England, Wales and N Ireland

T234 rain for most except in NI

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019011206/234-779UK.GIF?12-6

Dew points still fairly high across the south and south west

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019011206/234-101UK.GIF?12-6

But all change by T240. Very windy as well so would be blizzards

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019011206/240-515UK.GIF?12-6

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019011206/240-779UK.GIF?12-6

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019011206/240-101UK.GIF?12-6

Steady as she goes this morning. Variations on the theme.

Expect the same in the ensembles. A change to a colder regime is almost certain. How cold and snowy remains to be seen. As mentioned yesterday, it will be Monday before we have solid detail. The the form horse has and continues to be progressively cold And updates from key parties suggested this yesterday. Remember the reversal is still ongoing.

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the O6Z op run doesn't bring the -10c isotherm through the country at any stage until the 00z!? But does try to build to HP over Scandinavia but because of it's positioning it brings up milder air and southerly winds instead of easterly in FI!?

I wonder if this is a milder outlier - i am keen to see the ensembles?

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I'm happy with the latest GFS run, snow hitting various part next weekend , widespread as you go through the week 

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Maunder, the comment about the timescale is totally untrue. Unless you were cherry picking very cold and snowy charts, which were always in isolation. The trend has always been a change to unsettled midmonth with colder interludes. That scenario and timing has not changed. There is no agreement on the precise synoptics, extent or duration of any cold.

The 06z GFS op epitomises this perfectly but I have little confidence in it due to massive changes by day 7 compared with the previous run. The GEFS data have been rock solid, no delays no significant changes.

No doubt you are correct doctormog - I have not been following the charts for a few days. I was hoping for something better than the models are showing today on resuming attention and hence I am disappointed to say the least. We are not seeing a quick trop response to the SSW which favours the UK and I think the problem is the lump of PV which is still present on the Canadian side of the Pond. What is missing, is HLB which could open the door to sustained UK cold and snow, even though we should anticipate it given the SSW. It appears the AO is trending heavily negative, but that does not help us if the NAO does not go negative too, in a position which stops mild sectors from being thrown across the UK. Getting brief cold incursions and transient rain to snow to rain events, does not float my boat - I would rather have mild and dry than cold rain.

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