Plenty of very cold options amongst FI in the 06z GEFS.

One or two showing an easterly influence but the majority showing blocking in Greenland/mid Atlantic. 

[quote=Joe Bloggs;1066318]

Plenty of very cold options amongst FI in the 06z GEFS.

One or two showing an easterly influence but the majority showing blocking in Greenland/mid Atlantic.

_______________________________________________________________________________

P7 pick of the bunch.......

Yes an encouraging set from 06Z GEFS. Good to see the mean trend below average by mid-January 

ECM 00z ensemble suite for London

The milder cluster that was showing for the early days of the New Year has gone. That was the cluster in which the GFS Op had been sitting. So, good agreement now on progressively colder conditions until 5th. That's the point at which a less cold cluster develops. From Day 9 one cluster offering cold/very cold and another offering average temperatures are in reasonable balance: I think we will need to wait to see which evolution becomes more likely over the coming few days.

I'm not sure that is true. If you watch the UK Met Office forecasts on YouTube, and especially the ones that go out to 10 days, then you'll see that they often do consider the GFS output, if just to weigh it against their more commonly used medium/long range models. 

From 10th outwards there are some very cold ones showing with sub zero day max and very cold night..

Still though they're a minority at this stage ;)

Doc told me not to use the term Pizza as it should be warm sector but - there is so much 'warm sector' occurring this December!

Its as pointless as calling this chart from the GFS 06z op run a slice of cold pizza  (which probably will not be offer for that long either).

In isolation these charts have more to do with cherries than pizza.

Depends on which one Dominoes......sorry!!! ...dominates as we head into Jan...😏....(been reading to many Christmas cracker jokes)..

No hyperbole - just reality.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91032-hunt-for-cold-model-discussion-heading-into-christmas/?page=163&tab=comments#comment-3948994 

It could well be that it still does end up turning unsettled at some point after the first week in January. However, on the basis of the trend we have seen from the last few ECM op runs and some GFS runs too, it seems that this is getting pushed further back.

GEM concurs, as does MetO. The ICON breaks the run by having a weak (very weak, in fact) trough crossing the UK in just over a week's time.