hmmm  2T London medium term set taken a notch down 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Better set cluster 850,s later on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

hmmm gfs over the years I find always good at sniffing out a northerly come on gfs

Agreed David - although "unsettled with snow at times on hills in the north, possibly to lower levels" on MetO forecast for w/c 06/01  may well manifest itself as a retrogression of the high into the mid Atlantic allowing a cool-ish showery NW flow, which would at least fit the "unsettled" element.

Martin

FWIW I think the runs from the ECM, GFS and other models over the coming few days will have a very big say as to whether the MetO continues to maintain its thoughts of a more unsettled spell in the second week of the month as they are currently predicting, or they ultilmately drop this.

As I mentioned in the media thread earlier, the fact that the MetO are mentioning the possibility of snow on hills in northern areas and maybe even to low levels at times as well indicates to me that they are not expecting any zonal spell to be of a particularly mild type. They seem to be going for temps mostly around average which I imagine would be a bit lower than what many areas have been used to during December.

Unfortunately we've just lost a member. Please stay on topic.

Well the Beeb looks dry for the foreseeable , I should imagine the "unsettled" bit will be watered down.

OT sorry

Apologies Brian, I thought it relevant to the post I replied to 

Be interesting to see if we start to see some eye candy charts soon , I think in the 7-10 day outlook dry weather looks the favourite 

On the matter of a QTR I think there’s a possibility we may see something  before mid month but the odds for such must be pretty low. I still think a sinkiing high is the form horse allowing a much more mobile Atlantic incursion before ???

Wonder if the HP will shift NW allowing a Nly flow

Now this does look promising 

Indeed, Marcus.

A return of the atlantic may well still happen, but it is starting to look as though it won't be as quickly as was looking to be the case a few days ago.

Hello, what is happening over Iceland and Greenland here?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_195_1.png 

Get the yellows and greens in and we are in business 

Major change n/e Iceland 18 gfs plays a shortwave I like that better Marcus btw cold at the surface Tue-Fri 3c

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/3h.htm

Doesn't come to anything but at least its a start 

Maybe the GFS 18z could be an outlier, but there again maybe just maybe it might be starting to pick up a wee bit on the much discussed SSW.

Let's see how it ends and what tomorrow's runs bring.

Might well see some half decent runs in GEFS 

Yes, quite a chart David. Nice deep cold moving into Scandinavia and not too far from our shores. Let's hope this is more of a growing theme going forward.

Once again GFS becomes more mobile as soon as it goes into lower resolution; coincidence or indicative of issues as soon as the resolution level drops?

The end of the GFS run is not unlike (though naturally enhanced) what the ECM mean is showing at that range, which of course is no endorsement in itself.

Then this happens a couple days later: - Ridge flattens and sinks southwards!

An improving GEFS tonight , lets hope the trend continues .