Sounds good.

Martin

HP Dominated throughout , very few eye candy charts nothing in the way of an Atlantic onslaught either 

Dry at least and with a bit of luck some chilly nights 

A few just not well supported:

Still not much in the way of excitement for cold it has to be said but with the SSW technically occurring tonight I suppose the fun and games will start arriving in the output thereafter, or not as the case maybe. 😁

I cannot see how we can benefit form the situation in the near term other then no rain.

That may well be the story if you only consider the Op- and what an incredible HP it is too, with over a week of SLP above 1040mb. I'm not convinced.

Look at the whole ensemble output in GFS; here's London's: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=901

Now, disregarding the possibly inflated snow row output around 11th of 9 runs, there are other signals starting to be picked up that look good.

4 Ps now dip below -10 at 850, for example.

There are several encouraging outputs: P2, P6, P10, P12, P14, P17 all look useful for cold setups before 10days.

Some really cold outcomes are setting up by T+180 (still out of reliable range, but certainly not FI).

There is remarkable consistency between some of these: P6 and P12 look like twins at about 180, and both maintain the broad, long-fetch easterly tendency to late in the run.

P6 at 180: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/6_180_850tmp.png?cb=411

P12 at 180: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/12_180_850tmp.png?cb=156

P6 at 264: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/6_264_850tmp.png?cb=915

P12 at 264:https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/12_264_850tmp.png?cb=745

Something's definitely afoot; GEFS may not have the timings right but as Steve M explained, the models don't all have the same capabilities at long range.

I don't see the point in this reset business , wet dull and windy ……..why would anyone  want that ??

We are chasing an area of HP , we have one that will give us chilly temps and dry weather , hopefully it will then wriggle itself into a favourable positio

As for ECM: despite modelling a gentle but persistent westward shift of the HP between T+72 and T+144, https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/144_mslp850.png?cb=253

it then inexplicably collapses the HP S/ SEwards between 168 and 192, (yet allowing cooler 850s in), meaning any Nly outbreak is prevented by new HP development from the SW. It's probably just me, but that looks odd to me.

Very high pressure dominated with nearly a week of >1040mb for much of the UK!

Ens mean in line with the op

Nothing of any interest for cold fans but useable dry weather 

That's only true until the 7th Beast, and then not again until the very end.

In between, it's lower all the way- up to 6 degrees for a time at 850.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=237

The OP was the mildest member of the ensembles at day 10, so a good number of members must have the High further North although still generally on top of us.

The METO call for unsettled weather for the early part of next week now looks under threat unless there is a considerable flip in the NWP.

Looking ahead I'm struck by how low heights are to the NE/N in ensembles so as things stand the possible route to a change could be systems eventually sinking into Europe with pressure rising to the West.

OT - sorry!  The CET prediction thread is now open for anyone wanting to join in this fun, lighthearted competition.  No expertise required!  Sense of fun essential! 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19567

That's exactly what some of the Ps are showing in GEFS and also what was within the prognosis Steve Murr's link led to.

Thanks Caz.

Indeed. After going through the awful winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, both of which saw almost uninterrupted wet & stormy weather, I think anyone who wants that type of weather over what we have at the moment ought to be careful what they wish for.

Wrt the model output, as Ian noted above, the MetO's forecast from recent days of a change to more unsettled weather next week is now looking to be on something of a wobbly nail unless there is a change in the output. The GFS in consecutive op runs a few days ago was showing the atlantic taking over not long after New Year, but in the last day or two has backtracked from this somewhat and now seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet as ECM generally speaking.

This could well end up favourable 

EDIT maybe not but there were the slightest of hints of a push towards Greenland, as always need to see GEFS to get a better idea of the run

But then the same applies to freezing cold with ice and snow. Burst pipes, traffic accidents, increased illness and mortality rates amongst the old and infirm, higher heating bills, misery for the homeless.

The answer is that people enjoy different kinds of weather. Personally I'll take whatever comes along, if only because there's not a lot of choice.

Deep FI ends with a big cold push from the North

Experience and a look at historical charts shows that stable patterns can shift within 24-48 hours.  At the moment I'd say retrogression was about as likely as the high sinking. A burst of WAA in mid-Atlantic would help, of course.