Well the coming week looks like decent winter weather down here at least, with plenty of sunshine in the second half of this week and some sharp frosts on the way, plus possibly some fog. Max of just 3C by Friday if the automated output is to be believed.

Very different profile across the N Pole on the 12Z GFS with a 1035mb high over the pole by 192hrs. Upper heights aren't really there though.

Thank you Brian for the explanation of the different model runs. Much appreciated.

Time to batten down the hatches? Vicious looking low, with a central pressure of around 1024mb, setting up to bring the storm of the century later next weekend: 

The deep FI bit of the GFS 12z run looks to me rather like the sort of set-up the MetO are expecting to take hold for a while after the current settled spell. They have spoken of the possiblity of snow down to lower levels at times in the north, so that suggests to me they are expecting a NW flow, pretty much along the lines of GFS 12z towards the end of the run.

I've just pipped through the Perts but they're not complete out to 384 so the graph spread is not on show yet; look forward to it. There's plenty afoot with increasing cold options over the UK; but a lot is so far out, the ensembles have a vast spread of timings too.

GEFS12z looks similar to the 6z. Something for everyone probably remains the name of the game.

My eyes are not always as good as they should be, but I'd say from 9th, that series puts a lot more options between -5 and -10 than the 6z. 

No real change with ECM 

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 Perhaps I should also have said that the guys in the US who run the GFS/GEFS are ultra helpful. Same applies with the Germans at DWD. I'll stop there before I start ranting. Hopefully things will improve in the future!   

I have always said at this time of year that if there isn't any snow, the next best thing is clear & frosty weather. With the models runs generally showing what they are in the reliable timeframe at the moment, there should be a decent amount of the latter type of weather.

You might even say a touch of deja vous....

Something of a stalemate at the moment; will we have to see a period of mobility or will the SSW produce heights to the north to drag our resident HP out of its current position?   

I think either one has as much chance of happening as the other, Peter.

What does seem to have happened now is that GFS has somewhat backed away from an early return of the atlantic that it was indicating a few days back. Where we go from the upcoming period of HP domination is anyone's guess at the moment.

Sorry - wasn't being deliberately obscure Caz, it's something we say in our house all the time... "The more that changes, the more it stays the same".

Tends to be used after asking if now that they are 18 years' old one's teenage progeny will tidy their bedrooms, for example.

I used to hum the music from Mission Impossible.

I use 'plus ca change....' from time to time, although spell checker does its best to prevent it....

Que?

[using Manuel's voice, preferably]

No, their bedrooms get worse!  Mission impossible!   

it's like Deja Vous all over again

Que?

And now I've got ABBA playing "Voulez Vue" (sic)