H N Y 

I hope you are right K , January does look as though it could get interesting for sure 

What I will say is that going by the output at the moment, there is now a big question mark against the more unsettled period in the first half of the month that the MetO have been predicting since before Christmas. The GFS was going with this in successive op runs for a number of days last week but since the weekend just gone, it appears to have backed away from this. ECM meanwhile has been fairly consistent with its' HP dominated theme lasting for longer.

I almost sense a repeat of the roller-coaster ride in the model output in the days ahead that we saw last February.

06z looks mostly dry and boring. But better than storms so cant complain. No sign of any snow

That's if the OP verifies , clearly need to see where it sits in the ENS 

Happy New Year all 

Apart from a few outlier cold ensemble members across the ECM and GFS output its looking like a continuation of the settled, benign high pressure dominated theme with a risk of fog or frost where skies stay clear overnight. Cloudier with time as the high pressure cell fills in with Atlantic cloud and moisture.

6z GEFS ensembles at 240 hours..fairly good agreement so worthy of the mean being posted for a change.

De Bilt ensembles ( ECM 0z was a cold outlier, although there is a small minority cluster of colder outcomes)

I’m not sure how good the agreement by the 11th to be honest

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

The momentum is however growing for some rather interesting scenarios from midmonth or a little before.

great post, to look any further ahead is difficult. In the meantime a lot of quiet, useable if fairly boring weather though some may start to record their first frosts of the season 

It’s easy to look further ahead and the trend is clear but the scenarios are all over the place. The GFSP yet again shows some very cold air coming in from the north and I have learned to take note when such a trend develops in that particular model. I think confidence should be high on some form of cold in the second half of the month, whether it is cyclonic on anticyclonic and whether it is northerly or easterly or neither is very questionable.

Interesting from a local perspective that the snow row is up to 40% at 12 hours out.  It would be nice to see a few flakes on New Year’s  Day. 

GFSP is a belter for sure , how this performs against GFS OP / Control etc i don't know 

(nitpick)An outlier is a member which has no support whatsoever, i.e. it's out on its own. What you've shown isn't an outlier.(/nitpick)

That aside, here's a better link to use. I may have posted it before...

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

The "old faithful" link has also updated:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

From that we can see that for London the ECM run was well-supported and also that there are two distinct clusters: a cold one, with highs of around 5C or lower, plus a milder one. A rough eyeballing suggests the colder cluster just about edges it over the milder cluster.

Its verification stats at day 5 and 6 for what it’s worth are better than the current operational model. However it’s not the individual runs that get my attention but the recurrent pattern. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

Blues on the on the increase 

Naturally the trend will always be variable in the NWP after a number of days. There is significant support for HP to be located close to or to the SW of the country in the 7-10 day time-frame. Agreed, there is always the risk of significant cold brushing the NE in such a set up.

We must pay attention to the Met Office long rangers too and observe trends in their 6-30 day forecasts.

There is a clear trend in their thinking for significant cold at some stage but we must be honest and accept that this risk (once suggested for early January) is now earmarked for the third week.

Lets enjoy the benign mid winter conditions and see where we stand in a week or so. 

Dont get me wrong I am loving the benign conditions (ignoring the cold, windy and perhaps potentially wintry weather here today) but the point is colder weather midmonth as signposted by the Met Office for what seems like weeks now is gaining more and more support in the models. What we are not seeing is any certainty or consensus. Trends.

I don’t think generally that agreement is very strong at day 10, even allowing for normally time related variability across the models. A lack of variation in absolute pressure readings to the SW by itself in isolation is not very informative.

What is to the north, southeast or east/northeast is much more helpful (unless you live in the far SW )

As you say though the recent and forthcoming anticyclonic settled conditions could be so so much worse given the time of year.

OK Doc. It sounds like my post has mis-informed the MO thread. Apologies.

I genuinely thought my analysis was sound and considered.

We must agree to disagree. 

Bank!!

Happy and safe New year to all.

Happy New Year Steve

My recollection is that a couple of weeks or so back, the MetO did suggest that a change to generally colder conditions could well occur in early January with the small possibility that this could happen before New Year. However, since the few days before Xmas they have been farily consistent in predicting that the colder weather is mostly likely from mid-month which is the beginning of the third week of January.

What I am not so sure about now is this unsettled spell they have been talking about happening beforehand. Based on the output of the past few days, I would summise that the likelihood of this has decreased somewhat rather than increased.

 Noooo Steve, it was not a criticism, just that yours was a different interpretation to my own and your contributions in my experience are always well considered. Sorry if it came across as otherwise. My point is the general trend will not show up in pressure patterns to the SW in isolation or even really a mean pressure chart. You may well be 100% correct but I have a feeling the momentum is in a certain direction that will not pick be picked up on in either a mean pressure chart or prsssure in the Atlantic to the SW. You have misinformed no one. 

Looks like they're going for a cloud injection and the high pressure slipping southwestwards. TBH I've not seen enough model output in the last 24 hours to say whether it is the favoured scenario. 

Looks llike the cold(er) snap is over before it even gets started!