Nice to see early onset easterly but doubt at this stage  there will be much support from ENS

I don't think it really fits with the  METO outlook as they are bullish about unsettled Atlantic weather taking over in the second week, which was consistent with previous GFS runs. 

So the GFS is back in vogue again? 

This winter has all the potential to be one of those years we laugh about in future years...

True, although at the same time the MetO don't seem to be expecting any atlantic return to last for that long, given they are sticking by the thoughts they have had since before Christmas of a change to colder weather around mid-month.

That said, going by the GFS 12z op and the last few ECM op runs, it is at the moment by no means a given that the atlantic will return at all to any meaningful extent. The GFS seems to be backing off from the strong atlantic return it has been suggesting in the last few days- let's see what tonight's ECM 12z and tomorrow's runs bring.

Surely that's the BOM model? 

Which no doubt would cast this model back into the bin again.. until it shows what we yearn again. 

That chart is upside-down surely!

Actually the ECM led the way in the last few runs by retaining the MLB up until day 10.

Did I say it didn't? 

Really? The MetOffice forecast talks about snow at times for the north during the changeable spell. That’s not what GFS has been showing.

Anyway, GFS gradually moving towards sustaining the block for longer.  You’ll recall we went through an identical process earlier in the month when you were flying the GFS flag for a quick breakdown which never came.

 I see what you did there.

Wasn't that the brief easterly spell we had just over a fortnight ago which was eventually brought to an end by the arrival of storm Deirdre on 15th December, Peter? I do recall that for a while, GFS was keen on an early breakdown but in the end came round to supporting ECM in showing an easterly for a few days before the atlantic did finally return.

The GFS during its more 'zonal' runs would likely have brought some mP based snow here, so it is plausible that this risk would have been higher in the likes of W/N Scotland. 

Yes, that's right.

ECM op run this evening maintains upper heights and surface high pressure in our vicinity out to Day 10.  Surface cold and some cooler 850s for the east.

Possibly but the predominant flow in GFS was south-westerly to westerly and that's not consistent with the Met Office outlook.

ECM 12z keeps the colder upper farther east on this run. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=na&charthour=96&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Watching Arsenals back four or the weather models which is worse ? hmmmmmm its a tight call

Not much blocking in evidence from the Arsenal defence...

Made the mistake of zonal marking 🤣

If you ask me, I would say that in the grand scheme of things, prospects of a colder spell have taken a very slight turn for the better in the last day or so. The more unsettled spell that the MetO have been talking about doesn't appear to be as likely as it did a couple or so days back based on the trend of the last few ECM op runs.

Loads of high pressure, hopefully some decent frost and fog.

No complaints from me. 

[quote=Gandalf The White;1066192]

Not much blocking in evidence from the Arsenal defence...

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

seems they got hit from a substantial Mersey side streamer.....