careful nit-picking of the long range tone also suggests reaffirmed confidence of a possible ‘somewhen’ January freeze.

ECM ensembles suggest the op was supported well by the ensemble mean.

T+168 mean

The ECM mean suggests next week will be a very short snap it only just about makes it to -2 on the 850's as a peak low

ECM is dish of the day if you're hoping for a cold spell.

This and another northerly plunge appears on GFS too - but the thrust is always down through the Baltic, alas leaving us to pick up crumbs from the table.

Martin

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

I am going skiing for February half term and genuinely worried that for the first time I will be skiing on the artificial snow. Even if ECM is correct western Europe and the Alps would not see any precipitation.

The ECM 850s mean peaks with a low of around -2 on Wednesday it then rises up to around +5 on Saturday and then drops away again to around -1 circa 8th/9th

Big differences between the GFS and ECM as others have pointed out but with the METO and BBC still talking about it becoming unsettled from the NW in around 8 days, then I'm backing the GFS outcome for now.

Until we can get clarification on whether the UK high builds northwards or sinks SE then it’s pretty pointless looking beyond the end of next week.

That Meto/BBC outlook will soon change if the ECM holds its position. The Meto give little if any credence to the GFS and why would they when the ECM and their own model consistently outperform it 

I imagine though Ian that were it the case that the MetO was predicting a longer lasting settled period which ECM shows but GFS was going for the more unsettled one, you would probably say that you'd be expecting the MetO to alter their forecast to reflect what GFS was showing.

As Gandalf & I mentioned last night, it was only a couple of weeks or so back when GFS was shown to be too quick in bringing in the atlantic. This eventually did happen when Storm Deirdre arrived on 15th Dec, but there was a point when GFS had the atlantic returning a number of days earlier than this. In view of this, it would IMO for anyone to assume that GFS has what happens from the end of next week onwards nailed.

After the initial quieter HP spell the GFS has flipped back flatter in the long term again today, with only the odd colder solution. The Op manages to sink the HP, which then throws up repeated ridges allowing for some short lived shots of chilly PM air as LPs pass by, alternating with the mild, wetter stuff.

ECM looks reasonable for some quiet colder stuff, once the HP moves enough to allow colder air to be drawn in. No real signs of the HP sinking on ECM so chilly or cold once the current milder air gets washed out.

All in all still no concrete signs of a cold spell but hints of how we could get one (P11 on the 00z GFS clearly has things sussed). 

It'll be interesting to see if colder weather (i.e sub -5 850s and some snow around) does materialise or whether we just end up with a benign mix of quiet chilly HP with some milder wetter interludes.

At the moment things are starting to feel a little like the potential of something more wintry is always just being nudged out of reach but still plenty of time left before it's time to give up on the cold rainbows and start looking for spring

Edit - probably should clarify the GFS still manages to inject some colder air for a time under the HP, leading to 3-4 days of chilly weather down here at least, not really checked re places North!

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

NAO index doesn’t appear to look primed for anything either. Still, all to play for yet much ado about nothing?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 

GFS still chopping and changing with every run once you get out 7-10 days.

06z throws up a retrogression of upper heights and associated surface high pressure and delivers a potent northerly before the jet starts to exert pressure on the brief block

GFS still shows nothing wintry or cold and wants to break down the ridge, where as the ECM shows the HP move northwards by day 10:

Quite a difference

GFS 06Z

Clearly some conflict between the shorter term operational models and signals from the medium range output the met office have. They have persistently gone for colder weather later in the medium range forecast period but this has not materialised. Is it just a waiting game? Who knows! 

Martin

GFSP offering a buy 1 get 1 free on pizza this morning. Not sure how long the offer will be valid.

Possibly until tea time.