The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
23 December 2018 12:22:44

 

 Unfortunately the evidence can be ignored even by those with a scientific background. On Twitter yesterday a well known broadcast meteorology was apparently advising people to ignore the GFS 6z. The evidence suggests it is fractionally less accurate (although more accurate than the 00z would have been a couple of years ago) than the 00z and 12z but certainly not enough to be ignored. Give it time and someone will roll-out the other nonsense that the real reason for the GFS 6z being flaky is that it is initiated from the GFS 00z t+6.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Agreed Brian.  Ignoring any output isn’t very bright, but disregarding output with such fractional differences is even more daft. 

White Meadows
23 December 2018 12:26:17

 

The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

The signal is clearly coming & going, or at least gradually weakening. Usually in these situations the emphasis on cold takes slow steps towards the exit before vanishing without trace. The ‘backloaded’ winter may even become a front loaded spring. 

doctormog
23 December 2018 12:28:00

 

From what I could tell from the MetO updates a week or so ago, the chance of a change to generally colder conditions before the end of December was only an outside one and there was never really any consistent signal for this from the models we have access to. It has seemed to me that any change is and always was more likely to be sometime in the New Year.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Yes that is exactly right. As things stand the chances of cold weather in the first part of January look relatively high, based on the range of output, forecasts and data available for that time period. If this turns out to be the case it has been very well spotted.

The immediate outlook looks benign and settled but into the new year things look a good deal more interesting and I’m not sure if it would be all that transient but time will tell.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Retron
23 December 2018 12:54:05
It's interesting to see the GFS(P) has been upgrading the peak of the warming - originally it was just over 8C, now it peaks at 16C! The ECM last night maxed out at 12C.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4086/gfsnh-10-18_cso5.png 

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
23 December 2018 12:57:21

It's interesting to see the GFS(P) has been upgrading the peak of the warming - originally it was just over 8C, now it peaks at 16C! The ECM last night maxed out at 12C.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4086/gfsnh-10-18_cso5.png 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Impressive and I hadn’t realised the initial warming part of the event was so imminent. It will be interesting to see how this impacts things  down the line.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gandalf The White
23 December 2018 13:50:24

 

From what I could tell from the MetO updates a week or so ago, the chance of a change to generally colder conditions before the end of December was only an outside one and there was never really any consistent signal for this from the models we have access to. It has seemed to me that any change is and always was more likely to be sometime in the New Year.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Correct, David.  The Met Office forecast referred to high pressure becoming more influential and it possibly turning colder at the end of the month but the references to wintry weather and snow were for January.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gavin D
23 December 2018 14:02:07

ballamar
23 December 2018 14:40:32
Think we could get some Jan 87 style Synoptics showing in the models given the warming being modelled
briggsy6
23 December 2018 15:11:32

Would a Jan '87 event even be possible nowadays, given we've had thirty years GW inbetween times?

Location: Uxbridge
Retron
23 December 2018 15:17:34

Would a Jan '87 event even be possible nowadays, given we've had thirty years GW inbetween times?

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

Yes. If we can get -3C daytime highs at the end of February in an easterly, albeit due to record-breakingly low thickness for the time of year, we could just as well have a Jan 1987 type event again. It will take even longer than the 20+ years it took to get that -3 though!

Leysdown, north Kent
picturesareme
23 December 2018 15:21:17

Would a Jan '87 event even be possible nowadays, given we've had thirty years GW inbetween times?

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

If what had happened back on March had happened mid January then we would potentially have been looking at something even colder then January 87. 

The fact is  large areas of southern England saw sub zero day maxes in March with the sea freezing on the isle of white. For this kind of cold to happen in March in the far south (never mind the rest of uk) it took something extreme, and had this extreme happened mid January when the sun is significantly weaker, and the days are shorter then I suspect  widespread minus double day time highs would have been possible. 

Gooner
23 December 2018 15:45:02

Would a Jan '87 event even be possible nowadays, given we've had thirty years GW inbetween times?

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

That's an odd question, given what we got in 2010 at the end of Nov early Dec that year.

I should think a 63/ 47/78 blah blah are all possible given the right synoptics 

 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Chunky Pea
23 December 2018 16:00:53

 

If what had happened back on March had happened mid January then we would potentially have been looking at something even colder then January 87. 

The fact is  large areas of southern England saw sub zero day maxes in March with the sea freezing on the isle of white. For this kind of cold to happen in March in the far south (never mind the rest of uk) it took something extreme, and had this extreme happened mid January when the sun is significantly weaker, and the days are shorter then I suspect  widespread minus double day time highs would have been possible. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I think anything is still possible, but still less likely given the current climate state of the Arctic and the Atlantic. When we look back at when the Arctic and Atlantic were cooler, intense winter weather had a higher probability of occurring. 78/79, 81/82, 84, 85, 86, 87 to name just a few winter events well documented in history. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

David M Porter
23 December 2018 16:39:04

 

That's an odd question, given what we got in 2010 at the end of Nov early Dec that year.

I should think a 63/ 47/78 blah blah are all possible given the right synoptics 

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

There was also the month-long freeze of winter 2009/10, which IIRC commenced about a week before Christmas 2009.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

fairweather
23 December 2018 17:41:43

 

If what had happened back on March had happened mid January then we would potentially have been looking at something even colder then January 87. 

The fact is  large areas of southern England saw sub zero day maxes in March with the sea freezing on the isle of white. For this kind of cold to happen in March in the far south (never mind the rest of uk) it took something extreme, and had this extreme happened mid January when the sun is significantly weaker, and the days are shorter then I suspect  widespread minus double day time highs would have been possible. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

"..had this extreme happened mid January when the sun is significantly weaker, and the days are shorter then I suspect  widespread minus double day time highs would have been possible. "

Think that's probably pushing it a bit. That's once a century stuff and probably never been widespread.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
picturesareme
23 December 2018 17:52:10

 

"..had this extreme happened mid January when the sun is significantly weaker, and the days are shorter then I suspect  widespread minus double day time highs would have been possible. "

Think that's probably pushing it a bit. That's once a century stuff and probably never been widespread.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I was referring to central southern England with regards to minus double day time highs. But I believe it would have been likely had such cold arrived a month & half earlier. As it was widespread -2C to -4C still happened.

fairweather
23 December 2018 18:03:39

 

There was also the month-long freeze of winter 2009/10, which IIRC commenced about a week before Christmas 2009.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Probably a S.E centric post   and certainly very cold compared to many preceding Decembers and Januarys  but couldn't hold a candle to most of the others mentioned in the list of extremes in the South East.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
23 December 2018 18:04:13
Not an inspiring op run from GFS
Brian Gaze
23 December 2018 18:24:35

More uncertainty into the mix at an earlier stage. Still not cold though. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
23 December 2018 18:25:20

Not an inspiring op run from GFS

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

GFSP 12z brings colder conditions from the east for a time.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=12&charthour=312&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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nsrobins
23 December 2018 18:58:57

More uncertainty into the mix at an earlier stage. Still not cold though. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

We won’t see much in the way of Stella charts in FI until the reversal due 25th.

The fact we’re seeing interest and scatter now is a bonus IMO. Watch out for a significant uptick in sub -10 options post 300hrs from charts Tues onwards.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Arcus
23 December 2018 19:05:18

 

We won’t see much in the way of Stella charts in FI until the reversal due 25th.

The fact we’re seeing interest and scatter now is a bonus IMO. Watch out for a significant uptick in sub -10 options post 300hrs from charts Tues onwards.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Agreed - any current FI candy is just gravy (hmmmm... candy and gravy).

Ironically I would expect the juicy charts to start to appear on the horizon just when the aircraft data takes a dip. So will the models resort to "climate" in the absence of data?

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

fairweather
23 December 2018 21:25:20

 

I was referring to central southern England with regards to minus double day time highs. But I believe it would have been likely had such cold arrived a month & half earlier. As it was widespread -2C to -4C still happened.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

There wasn't much solar heating then but I would agree it could have been a couple of degrees lower. I don't think - double digit maxes  would have been "likely" though. I can only find one -11C last century in England  and that wouldn't have been widespread. Maybe there were more that I've missed.

 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
JACKO4EVER
23 December 2018 21:35:48
Very uninspiring output at the moment, perhaps some frost and fog if skies clear. With Southerly toppling HP it could be a long route to anything of interest. Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs bring.
David M Porter
24 December 2018 00:50:24

Very uninspiring output at the moment, perhaps some frost and fog if skies clear. With Southerly toppling HP it could be a long route to anything of interest. Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs bring.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I think it would be a longer route back to having anything of interest if it wasn't for the SSW which I think has now commenced or is about to commence. Given this, I think the chances of notable changes in the model output in the days ahead, whether they be for better or worse, are higher than they would have been without the SSW.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

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