Met Office Hadley         7.1c.      Anomaly     2.2c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      6.77c     Anomaly     1.68c

Netweather                   6.4c       Anomaly     2.31c

Bordon                         6.7c       Anomaly     -2.6c

Canvey Island               8.0c       Anomaly     0.5c

Cheadle Hulme              7.4c      Anomaly      0.48c

Clevedon Weather          8.6c     Anomaly      0.48c

Darwen                         7.0c     Anomaly      0.04c

Hexam                          4.3c     Anomaly      -1.46c

Mount Sorrel                  6.5c     Anomaly     -0.04c

Forest Town Mansfield    6.2c    Anomaly    -0.4c

Peasedown St John       7.9c   Anomaly    0.63c

Treviskey Redruth        9.8c.    Anomaly   0.84c.

Mean of my Watched  10  Stations using  5 years  average  7.24c  Difference  -0.03c   

Met Office Hadley         6.9c.      Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      6.49c     Anomaly      1.50c

Netweather                   7.13c     Anomaly      2.04c

Bordon                         6.8c       Anomaly      -2.5c

Cheadle Hulme             7.1c       Anomaly      0.18c

Forest Town Mansfield   6.2c       Anomaly      -0.4c

Peasedown St John       7.7c       Anomaly      0.43c

Treviskey Redruth Cornwall  9.6c  Anomaly   0.64c.

Mean of my 10 watched stations 7.18c.  Anomaly   -0.09c.      

The CET was just 0.67C yesterday. 

Another cold day today and then the mild conditions return for the foreseeable future. There are a few cold runs showing up from Christmas onwards but the majority keep it at or above average.

At the moment it is looking like December will end in the very mild category. For example a final CET of 6.5C would equal 2006. Only 2015 has been warmer than this since 1988.

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Thanks GW! 

Mine and everyone else's forecasts not off to a very good start then, haha! 

But am I panicking? Am I? 

Met Office Hadley         6.7c.      Anomaly      1.8c. Provisional to  16th.

Metcheck                      6.42c     Anomaly      1.43c

Netweather                   7.07c     Anomaly      1.98c

Forest Town Mansfield   6.1c.     Anomaly     -0.5c

Peasedown St John  7.7c.     Anomaly    1.58c

Mean of my 10  7.1c.  Anomaly  -0.17c.            

Met Office Hadley       6.7c      Anomaly     1.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                    6.52c    Anomaly     1.53c

Netweather                 7.05c    Anomaly     1.96c

Hexam                       4.5c      Anomaly      -1.26c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.3c    Anomaly    -0.3c

Peasedown St John  7.7c.  Anomaly  1'58c

Mean of my 10 7.27c. Anomaly  0.0c.       

Met Office Hadley       6.8c.    Anomaly    1.9c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                    6.52c   Anomaly    1.53c

Netweather                 7.13c   Anomaly    2.06c

Darwen                      7.1c     Anomaly    0.14c

Forest Town Mansfield  6.3c   Anomaly    -0.3c

Peasedown St John   7.7c   Anomaly    1.58c.

Mean of my 10 stations   7.21c   Anomaly    0.06c. 

Met Office Hadley        6.7c.     Anomaly    1.9c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     6.52c    Anomaly     1.53c

Netweather                 7.14c     Anomaly     2.05c

Hexam                        4.6c      Anomaly      -1,16c

Forest Town Mansfield  6.3c   Anomaly   -0.3c

Peasedown St John 7.7c   Anoamay    1.58c.

Mean of my 10 stations      7.22c     Anomaly   -0.05c.

Met Office Hadley         6.8c.     Anomaly     2.0c. Provisional to 20th.

MetCheck                     6.58c    Anomaly     1.58c.

Netweather                  7.16c    Anomaly      2.07c

Hexam                         4.16c.  Anomaly       -1.16c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.3c    Anomaly    -0.3c

Peasedown St John 7.7c   Anomaly   1.38c

Mean of my 10 watched stations   7.3c   Anomaly   0.54c.  

Mean max for the first 20 days here 7.95.

There have been a few ground frosts, with low temps at time of reading (earlier than standard) carrying over to create low minima for the days following in some cases, so the number of cold nights is slightly exaggerated.

Nonetheless, with a mean max of 11C here and no air frosts this month (there were a couple end October/ start November), no wonder I could populate the gardening thread with a few growing surprises.

Ah well, at least the flip side to another December of crap weather is that I should climb a couple of places on the overall competition table.

My latest calculations have the CET for December finishing at exactly 7.00C.

That would make December 2018 the 15th warmest December in the 360 year CET series. So very mild indeed.

Cheers GW. I’m a mile off that figure but hey ho!  The plus side to the mild weather is of course lower heating bills!  Although I’d rather have frost and snow at this time of year and bugger the cost!  

So looking at my analogues for winter, the best analogue is 1953/4 as shown by the table below.

So far December is on track to be similar to December 1953.

January and February 1954 were both very cold.

Possibly similar for 2019 if the SSW sets up blocking in the right location.

TABLE

Thanks GW.

My hopes for a cold high have vanished in the last couple of days. 

Huge congratulations to Darren, a worthy and deserved winner. 

My latest calculations have the CET for December finishing at exactly 7.00C.

That would make December 2018 the 15th warmest December in the 360 year CET series. So very mild indeed.

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Great work GW.  Looking like a very mild finish to December with night time minima holding up.  With the days now lengthening we have to hope there is mileage this year in the old adage “as the days lengthen so does the cold strengthen”.  

Thanks GW.

My hopes for a cold high have vanished in the last couple of days. 

Huge congratulations to Darren, a worthy and deserved winner. 

 

Thanks Steve. I was hoping it would get colder too, both so that the competition became more interesting, but also because I think my total error will be greater than WI's record of 5.99C.

Met Office Hadley         6.8c.       Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      6.67c.    Anomaly      1.68c

Netweather                   7.24c     Anomaly      1.15c

Peasedown St John 7.8c    Anomaly    1.68c.

Mean Of my watched 10 stations    7.33c.   Anomaly    0.06c.          

We went so long without a proper mild December - between 1988 and 2006 we only hit 6c once in 1994 - and yet since the amazing bone chiller that was 2010 we seem to have done a complete 180 to milder conditions for the month. This now seems certain to be the 5th 6c+ December in 8 years since then. If it were not for 2015 then it would be interestingly mild but of course that month set the bar impossibly high.

I'm torn between craving more weather excitement and bring pleased at the prospect of lower heating bills...

 

Thanks Steve. I was hoping it would get colder too, both so that the competition became more interesting, but also because I think my total error will be greater than WI's record of 5.99C.

Hi Darren

Congratulations on your 2018 victory.  It will be eyes down for January 2019 soon, if GW continues to run this most excellent competition, which I very much hope he does.

WI

Met Office Hadley        6.9c     Anomaly    2.1c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                     6.08c   Anomaly     1.69c

Netweather                  7.31c   Anomaly     2.22c  

Bordon                        7.3c     Anomaly     -2.0c

Canvey Island              8.3c     Anomaly     0.8c

Cheadle Hulme             7.2c     Anomaly     0.28c

Clevedon Weather         8.7c     Anomaly    0.53c

Darwen                        7.2c     Anomaly    0.06c

Hexam                         4.8c     Anomaly    -2.16c

Mount Sorrel                 6.7c    Anomaly     0.16c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.4c   Anomaly  -0.2c

Peasedown St John 7.9c  Anomaly   1.78c

Treviskey Redruth          9.6c    Anomaly    0.64c

Mean Of My Watched 10 Stations     7.41c.  Anomaly  0.14c