Met Office Hadley          6.9c.      Anomaly       2.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                       6.61c     Anomaly       1.62c

Netweather                    7.32c     Anomaly       2.23c

Forest Town Mansfield    6.2c.     Anomaly        -0.4c

Peasedown St John      7.9c.      Anomaly     1.78c.

 

Mean of my 10  7.33c.     Anomaly   0.06c.  

     

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Met Office Hadley

6.9c to the 24th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck         6.46c     Anomaly      2.1c

Netweather      7.19c     Anomaly      2.1c

Bordon             7.2c      Anomaly      -2.1c

Hexam             4.4c      Anomaly      -1.36c

Mount Sorrel     6.4c     Anomaly      -0.14c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.2c   Anomaly 0.04c

Peasedown St John 7.9c   Anomaly  1.78c.

 

Mean of my watched 10 stations  7.24c  Anomaly 0.03c. All on 5 year Average.     

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Met Office Hadley        6.8c.     Anomaly    2.0c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                     6.49c    Anomaly    1.50c.

Netweather                  7.15c    Anomaly    2.05c

Forest Town Mansfield  6.3c    Anomaly   -0.3c

Peasedown St John     7.9c    Anomaly   1.78c

 

Mean of my 10  7.41c  Anomaly  0.74c.

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.... I was hoping it would get colder...because I think my total error will be greater than WI's record of 5.99C.

Hello again. Yes, my record low cumulative error of 5.99 looks safe.  Just one month with an error in excess of 1c is almost enough to destroy chances of overhauling this record. With our weather and climate being the way it is, I would argue that in  many years, when there is some extreme weather, that it is an extremely hard task to get an average monthly error below 0.5c.  

I would encourage more punters to have a go at this competition, as it puts many aspects of model watching and fore- casting to the test. At times it feels like an impossibly hard task, and there is undoubtedly an element of luck, but to be lucky for 12 months in a row in this competition is not a mathematically sound likelihood.

It is fun, fun that unfolds incrementally over the year, and requires nerves of steel, luck of the Irish, good weather knowledge, and a good gut. But none of these things alone will be sufficient in of itself.

And it’s more about the taking part, as it’s about the annual journey, the ups and downs, akin to snakes and ladders, make it a fascination which I would urge you to participate in if thinking about it. Fun derived from, at times, pitting  your weather knowledge against the model guidance. Now what could be more fun than that?😉

 

---

 

Hello again. Yes, my record low cumulative error of 5.99 looks safe.  Just one month with an error in excess of 1c is almost enough to destroy chances of overhauling this record. With our weather and climate being the way it is, I would argue that in  many years, when there is some extreme weather, that it is an extremely hard task to get an average monthly error below 0.5c.  

I would encourage more punters to have a go at this competition, as it puts many aspects of model watching and fore- casting to the test. At times it feels like an impossibly hard task, and there is undoubtedly an element of luck, but to be lucky for 12 months in a row in this competition is not a mathematically sound likelihood.

It is fun, fun that unfolds incrementally over the year, and requires nerves of steel, luck of the Irish, good weather knowledge, and a good gut. But none of these things alone will be sufficient in of itself.

And it’s more about the taking part, as it’s about the annual journey, the ups and downs, akin to snakes and ladders, make it a fascination which I would urge you to participate in if thinking about it. Fun derived from, at times, pitting  your weather knowledge against the model guidance. Now what could be more fun than that?😉

 

  I possess none of the requirements for predicting the CET but I ‘m here every year nonetheless and thoroughly enjoy it, no matter how far down the table I am!  This is one of the most light hearted, friendly and fun threads on TWO and I love it.  I don’t predict, I just guess but I take part!  So, whether you’re a pro or a novice, have a punt!  Personally, I’d prefer more novices because that might make me look good!  

Seriously though, I take my hat off to all who have come close to the top any year but particularly this year as it’s been so different and difficult to predict.  The records set have been truly amazing and this thread has made It so much more interesting and exciting.  It’s not just about the monthly CET, we get all manner of statistics to interest us.  So I’d encourage everyone to take part.

Of course it’s many, many thanks to GW for continuing to run this competition every year!  I know how busy you get and how much work goes into this. I know there are times you’ve felt like giving it up, but you’ve stuck by us tirelessly!  Thank you GW!  You really are appreciated!  

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  I possess none of the requirements for predicting the CET but I ‘m here every year nonetheless and thoroughly enjoy it, no matter how far down the table I am!  This is one of the most light hearted, friendly and fun threads on TWO and I love it.  I don’t predict, I just guess but I take part!  So, whether you’re a pro or a novice, have a punt!  Personally, I’d prefer more novices because that might make me look good!  

Seriously though, I take my hat off to all who have come close to the top any year but particularly this year as it’s been so different and difficult to predict.  The records set have been truly amazing and this thread has made It so much more interesting and exciting.  It’s not just about the monthly CET, we get all manner of statistics to interest us.  So I’d encourage everyone to take part.

Of course it’s many, many thanks to GW for continuing to run this competition every year!  I know how busy you get and how much work goes into this. I know there are times you’ve felt like giving it up, but you’ve stuck by us tirelessly!  Thank you GW!  You really are appreciated!  

Great compliment Caz there for GW (Simon)

Well said.

 

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Met Office Hadley        6.8c.     Anomaly    2.1c.  Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     6.53c    Anomaly    1.54c

Netweather                  7.19c    Anomaly    2.1c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.4c   Anomaly   -0.2c

Peasedown St John   7.9c.   Anomaly  1.78c

 

Mean of my 10 7.26c. Anomaly -0.01c. 

January 2019 mean   all worked out and ready to go.  

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  I possess none of the requirements for predicting the CET but I ‘m here every year nonetheless and thoroughly enjoy it, no matter how far down the table I am!  This is one of the most light hearted, friendly and fun threads on TWO and I love it.  I don’t predict, I just guess but I take part!  So, whether you’re a pro or a novice, have a punt!  Personally, I’d prefer more novices because that might make me look good!  

Seriously though, I take my hat off to all who have come close to the top any year but particularly this year as it’s been so different and difficult to predict.  The records set have been truly amazing and this thread has made It so much more interesting and exciting.  It’s not just about the monthly CET, we get all manner of statistics to interest us.  So I’d encourage everyone to take part.

Of course it’s many, many thanks to GW for continuing to run this competition every year!  I know how busy you get and how much work goes into this. I know there are times you’ve felt like giving it up, but you’ve stuck by us tirelessly!  Thank you GW!  You really are appreciated!  

Caz, You certainly  have at least 2 of the criteria 😉and probably 4 of them. 😊 

Good to see  there’s plenty of praise for GW in the December thread, it’s like a continuity running through, and I’m sure we all hope he will continue to run the competition. 🙂

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Met Office Hadley        6.9c.     Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     6.56c    Anomaly      1.52c

Netweather                  7.17c    Anomaly      2.08c

Forest Town Mansfield  6.5c   Anomaly   -0.1c

Peasedown St John    7.9c. Anomaly  1.78c.

Mean of my 10 watched stations  7.29c.  Anomaly    0.02c.

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Caz, You certainly  have at least 2 of the criteria 😉and probably 4 of them. 😊 

Good to see  there’s plenty of praise for GW in the December thread, it’s like a continuity running through, and I’m sure we all hope he will continue to run the competition. 🙂

  Well maybe but I’m definitely short on weather knowledge.  If it wasn’t for GW posting data for past averages at the start of each thread, I honestly wouldn’t have a clue what to guess, even after all these years of participating!    

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Hello again. Yes, my record low cumulative error of 5.99 looks safe.  Just one month with an error in excess of 1c is almost enough to destroy chances of overhauling this record. With our weather and climate being the way it is, I would argue that in  many years, when there is some extreme weather, that it is an extremely hard task to get an average monthly error below 0.5c.  

I would encourage more punters to have a go at this competition, as it puts many aspects of model watching and fore- casting to the test. At times it feels like an impossibly hard task, and there is undoubtedly an element of luck, but to be lucky for 12 months in a row in this competition is not a mathematically sound likelihood.

It is fun, fun that unfolds incrementally over the year, and requires nerves of steel, luck of the Irish, good weather knowledge, and a good gut. But none of these things alone will be sufficient in of itself.

And it’s more about the taking part, as it’s about the annual journey, the ups and downs, akin to snakes and ladders, make it a fascination which I would urge you to participate in if thinking about it. Fun derived from, at times, pitting  your weather knowledge against the model guidance. Now what could be more fun than that?😉

 

You know I don't know about it being terribly difficult to do. Simply going for average (plus a tad of 'you know what') is going to be close most years? For most of us the problem has been seeing the odd very cold month and the somewhat more frequent very warm ones -  that's where I've badly lost out over the years (and when I've got for a warm/cold month - it's never worth doing). So long as you keep your losses down (look at the model, get the first week right, spot hints) then at some point a close prediction will come along.

As to luck, it's a surprising thing. How many times, on average, do you need to flip a coin to get four head/tails in a row - the answer is (or was to me) surprising, until you think about it.

---

My latest estimate for the December CET is 6.90C.

Thanks for all the kind comments about the CET competition. 

I am going to kick off the 2019 competition shortly. There has been a steady decline in the numbers participating during 2018. For now the number of participants remains sufficient to justify continuing the competition. I will be keeping an eye on things during the next few months to see whether there is a further decline in numbers. 

Met Office Hadley        6.9c.      Anomaly      2.2c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                     6.64c     Anomaly      1.64c

Netweather                  7.21c     Anomaly      2.12c

Bordon                        7.3c       Anomaly      -2.0c

Canvey Island              7.9c       Anomaly      0.28c

Cheadle Hulme             7.2c       Anomaly      0.28c

Clevedon Weather         8.7c      Anomaly       0.58c

Darwen                        7.3c      Anomaly       0.34c

Hexam                         5.0c      Anomaly       -0.76c

Mount Sorrel                 6.8c     Anomaly        0.26c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.6c   Anomaly   0.0c

Peasedown St John         7.9c    Anomaly      1.78c

Treviskey Redruth          9.3c     Anomaly      0.34c.

Mean Of My Watched 10 Stations  7.4c. Anomaly 0.13c.                 

---

My latest estimate for the December CET is 6.90C.

Thanks for all the kind comments about the CET competition. 

I am going to kick off the 2019 competition shortly. There has been a steady decline in the numbers participating during 2018. For now the number of participants remains sufficient to justify continuing the competition. I will be keeping an eye on things during the next few months to see whether there is a further decline in numbers. 

Then I think we all have a moral obligation to market the competition GW; tragedy if we lost it. We can start by posting on the thread more often - keep it at the front line of the 'Weather' super-thread. I've no doubt the praise will go some way to helping if people read it more often.

I'll add to the thanks list too. One of the best threads on TWO IMO.

---

 

You know I don't know about it being terribly difficult to do. Simply going for average (plus a tad of 'you know what') is going to be close most years? For most of us the problem has been seeing the odd very cold month and the somewhat more frequent very warm ones -  that's where I've badly lost out over the years (and when I've got for a warm/cold month - it's never worth doing). So long as you keep your losses down (look at the model, get the first week right, spot hints) then at some point a close prediction will come along.

As to luck, it's a surprising thing. How many times, on average, do you need to flip a coin to get four head/tails in a row - the answer is (or was to me) surprising, until you think about it.

Hmm- my guesses have all been a bit bipolar this year Dev and usually the wrong way round. I think by mid-year I'm so far off trail that the time for moderate guesses is past; it's all or bust.

---

My latest estimate for the December CET is 6.90C.

Thanks for all the kind comments about the CET competition. 

I am going to kick off the 2019 competition shortly. There has been a steady decline in the numbers participating during 2018. For now the number of participants remains sufficient to justify continuing the competition. I will be keeping an eye on things during the next few months to see whether there is a further decline in numbers. 

Yay!   

Keep it going GW!  I for one would be very sad to lose this competition, not for the glory, (Obviously as I don’t get any), but for the fun of participating and the lighthearted banter we have. We have some lovely people posting here and that’s what matters. It’s the quality, not the quantity that counts!  

I agree with Bertie though.  Maybe we should ‘market’ the CET threads!  I wonder if people don’t realise it’s not obligatory to predict every single month.

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Yes, it’s understandable that people want to be in it to win it, but it’s a great competition whatever your goal and whoever you are, and the thread is generally antagonism free. It’s fun to gamble, it’s fun to see the months tick over and the table fluctuate, it’s fun to stick your fingers up at the model guidance. It’s fun to stick at it all the way through. Great work GW and I hope the thread attracts new participants in 2019.

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Hi GW.

It is really great news that you are going to continue this in 2019. 

Its fun, its unpredictable but with a twist of skill, consideration and dedication all thrown in. 

Hopefully there will be enough participation to make the competition viable throughout.

 

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Met Office Hadley          7.0c.    Anomaly     2.3c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                       6.71c   Anomaly     1.71c

Netweather                    7.29c   Anomaly     2.2c

Clevedon Weather           8.8c.   Anomaly     0.68c

Hexam                           5.1c    Anomaly     -0.66c

Forest Town Mansfield     6.7c    Anomaly      0.10

Peasedown St John         8.27c  Anomaly       2.15c.

 

Mean Of My  Watched 10 Stations     7.44c.   Anomaly   0.17c.

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