Am surprised that the met office 3 month outlook didn't receive a very enthusiastic response.
We have got used to a procession of NAO + winters.
The Meto outlook is not saying that we are in for a severe winter but it opts for an overall NAO -.
It suggests the highest chances of impacts from cold weather will be later in the winter presumably February.
Looking at the indicators that suggest NAO - we have
1.Moderate ENSO increasing the likelihood of NAO -in late winter.
2.Polar vortex weaker than normal in late winter
3.Stratospheric events increasing chance of colder conditions later on.
4.Solar minimum which increases likelihood of a weak stratospheric circulation and cold weather weather alter in winter
Indicators that suggest NAO+ we have
1.QBO in westerly phase ,ncreasing likelihood of NAO +Ve
2.Pattern of SST anomalies increases the chance of NAO + conditions in early winter.
Overall it seems a to me there are enough NAO - signals to deliver at least a couple of cold spells of cold and snow.
Edited by user
14 December 2018 12:17:22
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Reason: Spellig