John Hammond ( Weather Trending ) looking good. Battleground Scenaio by the looks of things.

 

Thanks for the tremendous analysis, GW. Makes for fascinating reading. Will be intriguing to see how the next 4 to 6 weeks pan out.

Yes, brilliant work by GW, now let's see if pattern matching back to 1878 actually bears out.

If it does, then the weather soothsayer Corbyn might actually be onto something - even the Express and PCorbyn can get it right sometimes, just like a stuck clock.

One thing which is not in doubt, is that the sun has entered an early minimum (when I say "early" this onset is at least a year sooner than in all sunspot cycles of the last 100 years).

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Accuweather's forecast. Not the best forecast if you're hoping for a cold winter.

Winter 2013-14 v2.0? The only silver lining for cold lovers with this is, Accuweather's seasonal forecasts haven't really been the best lately.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-europe-winter-forecast-for-the-2018-2019-season/70006310

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Accuweather's forecast. Not the best forecast if you're hoping for a cold winter.

Winter 2013-14 v2.0? The only silver lining for cold lovers with this is, Accuweather's seasonal forecasts haven't really been the best lately.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-europe-winter-forecast-for-the-2018-2019-season/70006310

Accuweather is thee worst forecasting agency period, check out the stats for its previous forecasts over the years. 😂😂😂

Accuweather is thee worst forecasting agency period, check out the stats for its previous forecasts over the years. 😂😂😂

Well they did forecast a cold winter for the UK in 2015-16 and it turned out to be the second mildest in the entire CET series, so yes, it's not best to hang on their forecast.

Still it's in here for discussion purposes.

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Well they did forecast a cold winter for the UK in 2015-16 and it turned out to be the second mildest in the entire CET series, so yes, it's not best to hang on their forecast.

Still it's in here for discussion purposes.

Indeed.🙂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hu-L2Y7W_k

I stopped at 11 seconds in when I saw the words James Madden. 😂😂😂

I stopped at 11 seconds in when I saw the words James Madden. 😂😂😂

Ah shucks! It is complete BS of course, but it makes for some nice eye candy. The only accurate forecast for Christmas 2018 at the moment is:

Nobody has a clue yet.

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Accuweather's forecast. Not the best forecast if you're hoping for a cold winter.

Winter 2013-14 v2.0? The only silver lining for cold lovers with this is, Accuweather's seasonal forecasts haven't really been the best lately.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-europe-winter-forecast-for-the-2018-2019-season/70006310

 

I assume this is just guess work? If it's wet to the south then surely this would mean a southerly tracking jet?

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I assume this is just guess work? If it's wet to the south then surely this would mean a southerly tracking jet?

It isn't guesswork! However, that doesn't mean it will or won't be accurate.

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John Hammond ( Weather Trending ) looking good. Battleground Scenaio by the looks of things.

 

Of course it will be milder in the SW - but chilly and dry to the north /north east could denote high pressure?

Either way this winter's weather looks like it will be the most interesting one in several years esp after last year and given we are in solar minimum.

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It isn't guesswork! However, that doesn't mean it will or won't be accurate.

So what models would they use to come out with those summary outlooks for winter 18/19? where do they get the info from?

They talk about windstorms ...not rain storms? I found this paragraph interesting:

"While there will be plenty of windstorms throughout the winter, we do not expect the Beast from the East to return. That's not to say there won't be cold and snow, but accumulating snowfall will be limited to the more typical areas," he added.

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So what models would they use to come out with those summary outlooks for winter 18/19? where do they get the info from?

They talk about windstorms ...not rain storms? I found this paragraph interesting:

"While there will be plenty of windstorms throughout the winter, we do not expect the Beast from the East to return. That's not to say there won't be cold and snow, but accumulating snowfall will be limited to the more typical areas," he added.

When I last checked some of the seasonal models were favouring a positive NAO pattern this winter. In addition El Nino and a westerly QBO also offer some support for that prognosis. I'm not say I agree or disagree, but an argument for their winter forecast can be made.

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AccuWeather's previous winter forecast so we can see how Accu rate they were:

Winter 15/16 - (during the super El Nino):

 

Winter 16/17

 

Winter 17/18:

 

 

NOW THE LATEST: - No one knows!

 

No one knew the blocking in summer would last for months and months!? What's to stop this going into winter? We have had wetter spells but not the typical zonal pattern or wet and windy, with autumnal gales. Or frequent weather patterns we would normally get for this time of year...at our latitude!? It's early day's but here in the south at least, the next 10 days look set to stay dry and settled now!

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Slate accuweather all you like but they got summer & autumn one this year pretty much spot on considering they're long range forecasts. Also regarding last winter forecast I'm pretty sure they said it would end on a cold note with high pressure setting up over Scandinavia

They're usually rubbish.

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AccuWeather are the opposite of James Madden in that rather like a certain chap called Brown used to do all they do is describe something very close to average climatology So they are more likely to be nearish even if it's not exact. You could apply anything they,ve written on that map of Europe to almost any area of Europe at some point in the winter and still not be far off the money.

Madden on the other hand is so far off average climatology in forecasting winter Armageddon every year that he will likely be dead on the money once in thirty years or so.

The best winter forecasters will be the ones that pick out the once in thirty years winter when it is actually going to occur rather than forecasting it every year and then claiming to be right as soon a flake of sleet falls My eyebrows are only raised when one of the more measureed forecasters like our own Mr Gaze or GP and Mr Murr over on Netweather suggests something wintry .

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I am liking the thought of a repeat of 1878-79 as referenced by Global Warming above - here is one of Gavin's vids:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrBtnt0fqlk

 

 

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Madden on the other hand is so far off average climatology in forecasting winter Armageddon every year that he will likely be dead on the money once in thirty years or so.

 

...and live off the reputation for the next 29 years.

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