The forecast presented here is for November and the average of the November-December-January period for the United Kingdom as a whole. The forecast for November will be superseded by the long-range information on the public weather forecast web page (www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/ forecast/ #?tab=regionalForecast), starting from 5th November 2018. This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical prediction systems and expert judgement. SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: For November, and for November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are slightly more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 15% and 20%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). CONTEXT: Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have recently warmed and are now on the threshold of El Niño. Further development is expected, leading to a moderate El Niño event within the outlook period. In late autumn and early winter, El Niño increases the chances of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being in its positive phase. This would imply an increase in the likelihood of milder-than-average conditions for the UK. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, is entering a westerly phase. It will remain in this state throughout the coming winter. A westerly phase of the QBO also increases the likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO in the outlook period. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue to show a pattern of colderthan-average conditions south of 30°N and north of 50°N, with warmer-thanaverage conditions in a band in between. Like the other global influences, its effect in the outlook period is to moderately increase the chances of a positive phase of the NAO. This would be expected to increase the likelihood of milder-than-average conditions, though this would be partially offset by westerly winds blowing across the below-average sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK. For November, the Met Office long-range prediction system, along with other systems from prediction centres around the world, suggests an increased likelihood of high pressure over Europe to the east of the UK. With the UK being on the edge of this feature, there is uncertainty in the degree to which a colder, continental influence will be felt, as against a milder influence due to winds from the Atlantic. This results in a balanced outlook for the chances of above- and below-average temperatures, with above-average temperatures only slightly more likely (see left-hand graph of figure T2). For November-December-January, the Met Office long-range prediction system shows an increase in the likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO and thereby a greater-than-usual chance of mild conditions. Agreement with long-range predictions from other global centres is mixed, however, with a significant minority suggesting greater chances of weather patterns that would bring colder-than-normal conditions to the UK. As a result, while there is an increased likelihood of milder-than-average conditions (see right-hand graph of figure T2), this increase is modest. The chances of colder-thanaverage conditions, and impacts from cold weather, remain reasonably close to normal. Given this overall outlook, the highest chance of any cold weather impacts is towards the end of the outlook period.
The METO office 3 month contingency forecast continues on the mild side with any cold conditions more likely later in the winter.