Cold but dry to start

Turning wet and windy

Still open to doubt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46476591 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Friday 21 Dec 2018:

Many will be dry, settled but cold through Wednesday and Thursday with eastern and southeastern areas often fine with some sunshine. Elsewhere, skies may perhaps be cloudier with western parts seeing rain and strengthening winds, with a risk of hill snow in the north. Through the remainder of this period there is a fine balance between colder air to the east and milder air in the west. Overall, it is likely to be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, with the threat of snow over high ground. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier with the best of the clearer weather, leading to overnight frosts. Overall, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, but coldest in the east and mildest in the west.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Saturday 5 Jan 2019:

This period, which includes Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground, less so in eastern and southeastern parts of the UK. The best of any settled and drier conditions will probably be across northern parts of the country during this period, where overnight frosts are likely. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK, bringing more settled conditions, although there remains some uncertainty, with an unsettled and westerly airflow equally as likely into the New Year. Temperatures overall look rather mixed, but on the whole generally near normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Another day...another flip - Compared to yesterday's update:

"By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions."

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Where do we go from here...? So much for milder and wetter spells to be brief then!

Chilly start but mainly dry

Turning wet and windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46489601 

We will likely just see a continuation of the dross that has prevailed since August in which it has rained nearly every day but in such paltry amounts that only November managed an above average total and that was only down to near constant drizzle for 10 days 

I'd love to see a massive precipitation total being clocked up during the second half of the month just not in the form of rain. Otherwise would prefer to have a proper dry spell with frost. Surely the extreme tedium of the past four months has to give way to something vaguely interesting sooner or later.

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Thursday looks set to be wet and very windy in the west, but cold and dry in the east. Where these two weather types meet, there could be some snow, probably over high ground in the north. Through the remainder of this period, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow will be confined to high ground in the north. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier and the best of the sunshine is likely here. Clearer colder nights in these parts is likely to lead to some frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Sunday 6 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. The best of any settled and drier weather will probably be across northern parts of the UK during this period, so overnight frosts are more likely here. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Interesting to hear P Avery mentioning the battle between the mild and cold air saying " Thursday could be interesting "

Chilly but mainly dry start

Risk of snow on Thursday

Turning wet and windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46494756 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather for the rest of December

Saturday 8 December—Sunday 16 December

Rather unsettled overall with a short break.

Indications are that the rest of December and even early January will be characterised by wet, windy and generally mild conditions with a strong jet stream moving in from the Atlantic at times. The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds in the upper atmosphere and helps to drive in weather systems to the UK.

Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure over most of the UK. As the high shifts to the northeast over Scandinavia on Tuesday, frontal systems will move a bit closer to the UK from the west and may bring cloud and patchy rain at times, although many places will stay dry. Beyond Wednesday, as the area of high pressure shifts eastwards towards Russia, we will see a return to unsettled conditions for the UK with plenty of outbreaks of rain and some windy days.

As we near the end of the week, there are hints of a strong storm coming in from the west but the exact timing and intensity of this event is still uncertain.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Wet, mild and windy at times.

The wet, windy and mild theme continues for the week leading up to Christmas.

There is a good indication from various weather models that we will continue to see successive low pressure systems and their associated fronts sweep across the UK from the west, bringing some very windy days along with outbreaks of rain, sometimes heavy in the west and north. These weather systems will also bring milder Atlantic air and keep the colder, Polar air well to the north and east. We are likely to see occasional areas of high pressure moving through, bringing a brief respite from the wind and rain.

There is a risk that some of the low pressure systems could be strong and bring very strong winds and heavy rain to some areas. Confidence is low at this range on the exact timing and location of these potential storms due to the changeable nature of the jet stream.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 6 January

Staying mild with some very wet and windy weather

As we end December, there doesn't seem to be much change in the weather pattern, with low pressure systems moving across the UK bringing plenty of fronts, strong winds, and rain, along with milder temperatures. Western areas of the UK are expected to be the wettest and there are indications that rainfall could be well-above normal for the time of year for some areas, with a risk of flooding.

Strong winds appear most likely towards the end of the month.  The generally unsettled theme dominated by low pressure systems will mean that any lowland snow around Christmas is unlikely. However, a brief cold snap between fronts cannot be ruled out, so there is perhaps just the faintest glimmer that some may see a white Christmas. As we head into the new year, the Jet stream looks set to dip south, bringing the low pressure track across the UK and into the Continent. This will bring colder air into the north with Scotland likely to see some snow even down to low lying areas. Further south it will stay wet, windy, and milder than Scotland but generally a bit cooler than December.

Occasional and brief cold snaps in the south are possible after the cold fronts move through, which could bring the risk for wintry showers to low-lying areas at times.

Next Update

Although a white Christmas looks unlikely, could we some snow somewhere in the UK?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Dec 2018 to Sunday 23 Dec 2018:

Friday looks likely to be wet and possibly very windy in the northwest, and colder and drier in the far east. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Over next weekend, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week, eastern and southern areas may become drier for a time with more sunshine but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Monday 7 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

'If the High Pressure is just offset to the West or East' then wet and windy would dominate' I don't see how that can be the case if it is just to the West, or even quite well to the West. 

The East comment is feasible depending on where it is. Either way, they are not buying the HLB solutions that are being mooted by others for this period.

Problem is that the section of their currently monthly outlook for the middle/end of next week contradicts their current favoured outcome on the TV forecasts. 

 That's the Met Office forecast

The previous sentence is, "However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK."

It means that if the high pressure is west or east of us then we are exposed to LP systems and troughs instead, doesn't it?

But if it's just to the West then it wouldn't be wet and windy, you might get the Atlantic rolling weak systems over the top or you might get northerlies, which should be white not wet at that time of year. 'Wet and windy' implies vigorous Atlantic systems to me.

I didn't think the HLB was predicted to come into play late Jan early Feb???

I think it might just be your understanding of the word 'just': in meteorological terms that could mean 500- 1,000 miles.  Plenty enough to let troughs into the country.