The Weather Outlook

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nsrobins
15 November 2018 16:57:49

 

No signs of that in any model output sorry.?BCC goes for a blocked December too..?πŸ€”πŸ™„

I would hate to have such an impressive block end of November only for it to  e mild and wet in December. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

It’s (BBC monthly) a bit strange I concur. The EC46 and Glosea still project high confidence in blocking to our N into first week of Dec which will mean cool or cold for the UK.

Not sure where they get the ‘return to mild’ signal from.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gavin D
15 November 2018 17:11:55

 

It’s (BBC monthly) a bit strange I concur. The EC46 and Glosea still project high confidence in blocking to our N into first week of Dec which will mean cool or cold for the UK.

Not sure where they get the ‘return to mild’ signal from.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

They aren't the only ones suggesting that it may happen the met office today end with the following 

"Confidence is currently low towards the middle of December. However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic."

sizzle
15 November 2018 17:12:30

 

It’s (BBC monthly) a bit strange I concur. The EC46 and Glosea still project high confidence in blocking to our N into first week of Dec which will mean cool or cold for the UK.

Not sure where they get the ‘return to mild’ signal from.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

---Not sure where they get the ‘return to mild’ signal from-------they are most likely ASSUMING worse case scenario..NEVER ASSUME...

tallyho_83
15 November 2018 18:00:54

 

It’s (BBC monthly) a bit strange I concur. The EC46 and Glosea still project high confidence in blocking to our N into first week of Dec which will mean cool or cold for the UK.

Not sure where they get the ‘return to mild’ signal from.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes and what's also strange about the BBC monthly from 26th November is that not only do they say a return to average or above normal with temperatures and westerlies or South westerlies but they never mention frost...let alone snow. 

Despite clear signals of a negative AO and NA0. So strange.πŸ™„πŸ€”

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
15 November 2018 21:28:55
Cold to start next week but turning a bit milder by next weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46230656 

Arcus
15 November 2018 22:05:03

Cold to start next week but turning a bit milder by next weekend

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46230656

You forgot "could" being a used a lot there, as it would be in any long term forecast. 


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
16 November 2018 12:30:37
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2018 to Friday 30 Nov 2018:

The remainder of November looks most likely to be characterised by winds blowing in from continental Europe across much of the country. This will bring variable and often large amounts of cloud, with the best of any sunshine in western areas. There is also the likelihood of some showers, these most likely focussed across eastern areas, but perhaps becoming more widespread and persistent at times. With a relatively chilly air mass in place, there is scope for some sleet or snow, but this will most likely be restricted to higher ground. The breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times in the south. With lighter winds further north, and under clear skies at night, overnight frosts are likely to become rather more extensive.

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions for much of the country. There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December. This would mean a return to increased incidences of overnight frost as well as the risk of fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

roger63
16 November 2018 12:50:33

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2018 to Friday 30 Nov 2018:

The remainder of November looks most likely to be characterised by winds blowing in from continental Europe across much of the country. This will bring variable and often large amounts of cloud, with the best of any sunshine in western areas. There is also the likelihood of some showers, these most likely focussed across eastern areas, but perhaps becoming more widespread and persistent at times. With a relatively chilly air mass in place, there is scope for some sleet or snow, but this will most likely be restricted to higher ground. The breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times in the south. With lighter winds further north, and under clear skies at night, overnight frosts are likely to become rather more extensive.

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions for much of the country. There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December. This would mean a return to increased incidences of overnight frost as well as the risk of fog.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Am I wrong or is the reference to snow much downgraded compared to only yesterday?

nsrobins
16 November 2018 12:59:55

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Am I wrong or is the reference to snow much downgraded compared to only yesterday?

I wouldn’t get too hung up with the wording of these. To be fair it looks pretty good with respect the uncertainty and the paid for models such as MOGREPS. Just like the weather, these outlooks can change over a few days.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Robertski
16 November 2018 14:01:31

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Am I wrong or is the reference to snow much downgraded compared to only yesterday?

 

Actually looks like an upgrade to me with the chances of the cold weather holding on in December. wink

Solar Cycles
16 November 2018 14:26:05
The MetO updates sound less convincing with each passing day with emphasis being on shoulds, ifs and maybes, not really surprising considering the timescales and the models continuing struggle on where the block will end up at.
Whiteout
16 November 2018 15:02:15

 

Am I wrong or is the reference to snow much downgraded compared to only yesterday?

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

 

Actually looks like an upgrade to me with the chances of the cold weather holding on in December. wink

I would agree. I think it is an upgrade, certainly in terms of prolonged below average temps. The local SE forecast has upgraded too, now mentioning wintry showers mid-week. 


Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Gavin D
16 November 2018 19:00:13

Gavin D
16 November 2018 20:34:46
Midweek

Snowfall over mountains

Later next week

Potentially milder but unsettled especially across the southern half

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46243382 

Gooner
16 November 2018 21:58:26

The Beeb are very bullish about a very short cold snap , LP moving into the SW at the end of the week


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
17 November 2018 11:55:39
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Nov 2018 to Saturday 1 Dec 2018:

Throughout this period, the winds look likely to blow in from the east, across continental Europe. This will often bring cloudy skies, with the best of any sunshine in western areas. There is also the likelihood of some showers, these most frequent in eastern parts, but perhaps becoming more widespread and persistent at times. With a chill in the air, there is scope for some sleet or snow, but this will most likely be restricted to the hills. The breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times in the south. With lighter winds further north, and under clear skies at night, overnight frosts are likely to become more common. There is also a small chance of even colder conditions going into early December, in northerly winds.

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with some showers coming in from the east. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions with overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
17 November 2018 17:30:13
Week ahead

Colder

Stronger easterly winds

Some rain, sleet, snow

Less chilly next weekend?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46247860 

Gavin D
18 November 2018 09:17:02

Former BBC weather forecaster John Hammond has updated his monthly forecast

The main headlines

  • Chilly spell arrives
  • Limited impacts initially
  • Risk of more severe cold later

You can read his full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/11/16/cold-snap-long-freeze/ you must sign up to read it

Gavin D
18 November 2018 12:35:02
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:

Through the rest of November, there will often be cloudy skies, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hillsnow in the north of the UK. There will be some sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times, especially in the south and west where there may be gales in exposed areas. It will be staying on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps seeing even colder conditions if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

UK Outlook for Monday 3 Dec 2018 to Monday 17 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with sunny spells and showers. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions, with overnight frost and fog more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gooner
18 November 2018 12:58:42

Decent seasonal update I'd say 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
18 November 2018 17:56:26
This week

Colder

Stronger easterly winds

Some rain, sleet, snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46255702 

Gavin D
19 November 2018 12:18:51
No change in either met office outlooks today

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2018 to Monday 3 Dec 2018:

Through the rest of November, skies will often be fairly cloudy, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hill snow to the north of the UK. There will be some sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times, especially in the south and west at first where there may be gales in exposed areas. It will be staying on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps seeing even colder conditions if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with sunny spells and showers. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions, with overnight frost and fog more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
19 November 2018 20:10:56
Next week

Dry and settled at first

Low pressure takes overΒ 

More unsettled

Less cold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46269368 

Gavin D
20 November 2018 12:26:11
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2018:

On Sunday, showers will continue near eastern coasts, though these will probably die out later. Most other areas will stay rather cloudy with relatively light winds. In the last few days of November, skies will often be fairly cloudy, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hill snow to the north of the UK. There will be sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times. It will stay on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps colder weather if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 19 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there is likely to be a continuation of cold and mainly dry weather for much of the UK, with sunny spells and a few showers. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change temporarily, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if this change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled weather again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to colder conditions, with ove

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
20 November 2018 12:43:33

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Not unusual but N. America, esp the east are doing so, so well for cold and snow and so early in the season too!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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