Going to be an interesting winter with all the conflicting signals we are getting. For what it is worth, the sun is still spotless today and it has been spotless for about four weeks in a row by my reckoning - would add up to a spotless month if it were not split across October and November.

Solar Minimum is proceeding apace in any case, so let's see how that impacts on NAO - records going back to the Maunder Minimum indicate a correlation between deep solar minima and increased propensity for the NAO to turn negative - the science to understand why that may be the case is in its infancy though,

The Longer we have blocking over the UK and Europe that blocks the North Atlantic Jetstream, the more chance there will be of dragging cold arctic air down to the NE and or the West to NW Europe UK part of the World.

There is a good sign of things as far as UKMO at 120-144 and ECMWF from 120-144 to upto 240 hours is concerned.

GFS is staying confused with the same time frame and going on a North Atlantic NAO Positive train.

More runs needed, and I have to confess that this may take a while yet to sort out.

Neither maybe correct. NE Canada Low Pressure re-invigorating NW N. Atlantic PV Low, and Low Pressure over Norway and Sweden Finland, and areas of SW to NE moving Low Pressure to Iceland and Norwegian Sea - with Low Pressure progressively going over the Sceuro High is not what will bring cold and frosty UK weather.

But if we have UK and North Europe NW Europe blocking High in the right place- that could turn it cold by night with fog becoming more widespread leading to colder days- that option looks good on the ECMWF T196 to T240 hour time from today's ECMWF ooz run.

That is open to changes though.

21 days - 3 weeks exactly without a sun spot.

Eastern europe cooling down significantly towards the end of the run

this is something we have waited well into the new year to see in years gone by.  Yes its just surface temps, but still good to see.

Thanks for the clarification :-)

Quick heads up...

The DWD ICON model has undergone two upgrades in the last few months. Changes include bug fixes, incorporating more data and adding some new output fields. 

I've not seen any verification stats so don't know what impact the changes may have had.

On the TWO ICON viewer I've modified the MSLP plot so that the shading now DOES show 850hPa temperatures. 

All the existing ICON plots on TWO use the high res EU Nest which goes out to 120 hours, rather than the lower res Global Nest which goes out to 180 hours.

Chart viewer link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Suggestive of a proper switch back to our 2018 default pattern:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I've a very good feeling about this winter.

The ensembles in the later stages have my attention at the moment. 

I am very happy with the general drift of MO at the moment - having days of southerly drift across the UK at this time of year is no bad thing. Point one, it indicates that as hard as it tries, the Atlantic is not breaking through the blocking signals to our east - recall that in a zonal setup the Atlantic depressions whiz over us and head east - for days now, the fronts have been stalling over the UK (making for a wet period in western regions). Point two, the WAA heading north is a feedback mechanism, building the HP and disrupting the vortex, giving hope for northern blocking down the line. Point three - we are saving on our heating bills in the meantime.

Win win all round.

I couldn’t put it better myself. There’s a persistent albeit minority signal longer term for major blocking to the east which as far as sowing seeds goes is as good as it gets at this stage of the year.

I remember that November 2009 was a mild but also a very wet month in much of the UK. What I can't remember is whether there were any indications of blocking building to the east/north-east this early in the month, but I do recall that by the months end and the start of December 2009, there were clear indications from the models on a consistent basis that a notable change was likely as we went further into that month.

Serious question - how can the Op temperature finish up lower than any of the ensemble members? Does it show that the people at GFS have used their experience to override their computer model?

In terms of the 850s, the GFS 00z Op ends on a chillier note for the SE as a cooler pool of air comes in from the east:

Utterly dismal run from GFS.

Next.

A fair crop of cold easterlies showing up in the far ranges of FI.

Its very rare for me to post a chart post 144 hours but on this occasion I shall.

To illustrate the point here is the ensemble mean at 312 Hours ! 

A good signal for a Scandinavian high emerging.

A check of the means and many individual members will brighten your mood. The OP is not always a decent guide in isolation, especially in the extended range.

Wow great chart

ColdEurope, rain staying on Atlantic fringes

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Wouldn't be that cold, though, at this time of year.

I'd rather be seeing blocking to our N/NW.