Net weathers MO from 12th Nov until 4th Dec - updated 7th Nov:
- Looking good from 26th Nov (Last week of Nov) - Could be a dejavu of end of October's northerly but instead of +3 to 4c it could be plus 0 to +2c with snow as it's a month later thus colder northerlies by this time also the fact they say temps could be 2 -3 c below average?
Also, they mention below average rainfall in the rest towards end of November and into December - thus meaning LP to the east = northerly!?
Monthly weather forecast for the UK
Starting off mild and changeable, then turning mostly cold and dry
Updated 7th November - Covering the period 12th November - 4th December
Overview
Mean temperatures during this period will tend to be 0.5-1.0C below the 1981-2010 long-term average in most parts of the UK, but about 0.5C above in northern Scotland. There is some uncertainty over this depending on the extent of any northerly outbreaks towards the end of November and into early December.
Rainfall totals are expected to be below normal, in spite of a wet start to the period in western and southern Britain, with north-east England probably seeing the largest overall deficit, and south- western areas having only slightly below average rainfall.
Sunshine totals are expected to be close to normal in most regions with sunny weather at the end of the period offsetting cloudy weather early on, but in eastern Scotland it will probably be rather sunnier than average.
Week 2: Monday 12th November – Sunday 18th November
This period will be mostly mild and changeable with south-westerly winds, due to a rather blocked setup across the Northern Hemisphere with persistent high pressure over Europe extending towards Scandinavia at times, and a persistent low to the north-west of Britain, meaning that Britain will lie on the warm side of the block. Rain belts will frequently move from south-west to north-east across the country, but amounts in eastern areas will typically be small, with south- eastern areas often missing much of the rain due to the proximity of high pressure to the east and south-east, and eastern Scotland and north-east England seeing a pronounced rain shadow effect.
Towards the end of the period we can expect high pressure to extend into southern areas more frequently, resulting in temperatures closer to the seasonal average and in the rain belts being more confined to central and northern parts of the British Isles.
Mean temperatures will tend to be 2 to 3C above the 1981-2010 long-term average over much of the country, but closer to 1C above in southern England and also in Northern Ireland. Mean minima are likely to be higher relative to normal than maxima in most western parts of Britain, but in many eastern areas the positive anomaly will be similar by day and by night.
Rainfall totals are expected to be above normal in Wales and in western, central and southern parts of England, with most of western Scotland and Northern Ireland close to normal. Much of the east of Scotland and north-east of England will be drier than normal due to the rain shadow effect.
Sunshine totals are expected to show a northeast-southwest split with most southern and western parts of the UK duller than normal, particularly the south-west, but in the north and east of Scotland it will generally be sunnier than average.
Week 3: Monday 19th November – Sunday 25th November
The dominant trough to the north-west of Britain will weaken this week which means that the weather will be predominantly anticyclonic over the British Isles with temperatures falling below the seasonal average in most parts of the country, but in the north and west of Scotland it will be milder at times with some cloud and rain on the north-western flank of the high pressure, with south-westerlies coming in off the North Atlantic. There is an increasing chance of northerly outbreaks towards the end of the period, but only about 30% likely, with the emphasis likely to remain on dry and fairly cold weather for the majority
As a result temperatures will tend to be about 1C below the long-term average in most parts of the UK, but 0 to 1C above in northern Scotland. Rainfall totals are expected to be below normal everywhere. Sunshine totals are more uncertain because of the potential for low cloud and "anticyclonic gloom" at this time of year, but western and southern areas will probably be sunnier than average (in contrast to the previous week).
Rest of month: Monday 26th November – Tuesday 4th December
Confidence is quite low for this period but there is a significant chance of one or two northerly outbreaks occurring during this period which means that it will generally be colder than average and mostly drier than average too, but with potential for some snowfall for northern and eastern areas, depending on the length of any northerly outbreaks. The Atlantic side of the Arctic will be relatively cool for recent years (though still warmer than the 1981-2010 long-term average) and so there is potential for any northerlies to be quite potent. Temperatures are thus expected to be 2 to 3C below the long-term average over much of the country, with rainfall generally below normal, especially in the west. With polar air likely to be quite a regular visitor, sunshine totals are expected to be above normal, especially in central and western parts of Britain.
Edited by user
08 November 2018 01:24:00
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Reason: Not specified
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com