[quote=Bertwhistle;1033575]

Bit alarmed at how quickly the cold is expected to set in over Canada:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_264_mslp850.png?cb=837

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3c max progged  for Calgary on weds with Sleet and Snow.....

Hurricanes Florence and Helene much less prominent on this morning's charts so hopes of quantities of warm air being pumped up from the tropics are fading. Instead the NW Atlantic will supply troughs, so cool and occasionally damp for a while.

It's quite notable how the GEFS suddenly diverges into 'anything is possible' territory from the weekend onwards.

Nothing sustained in terms of warmth though. A mobile signature with spikes indicative of warm sector and cooler incursions. 

I see nothing in the output currently to suggest a colder than average September for the CET area, I see average to a little warmer than average conditions in the offing as things stand this evening.

I wasn't referring to temperatures in the CET area. It was an observation of the sine wave nature of the upper air profiles and rainfall spikes on the London ensembles. 

The CET is another discussion for another thread. As we all know any ensemble comparisons should be drawn with somewhere like Manchester for that ! 

Indeed, Steve. For one thing, I sure can't see any suggestion from any of the models just now of a repeat of the exceptionally warm spell that large parts of England had around this time in September 2016; IIRC 34C was reached somewhere during that spell before it finally broke and the atlantic woke up.

Up it pops again! GFS0z and ECM have the remains of a hurricane (Helene?) approaching Britain on 17/18 Sept, disturbing the normal westerly in operation until then, and combining with an Atlantic depression to give a powerful storm off NW Britain a couple of days later. ECM is especially keen on developing this feature, with what looks like hurricane force winds within touching distance of Cornwall before the jet stream re-asserts itself.

Right at the top end of the ECM ensemble, but still plenty of support of support for warmth one way or another next week, even if not necessarily the scorchio of the op run.

ECM once again goes scorchio next week 17c 850s this time next week remarkable heat for so late.

Warm up definitely still on Cultman1 , exceptional 850s for the time of year will feel very balmy. 

Where is everyone?  Any clues to next week warm weather. ?

All depends on how much cloud we get, otherwise its just mild to humid, since August there has been many completely cloudy days

Was just going to post "more runs needed", but we'll have a little looks at next week's prospects on Helene et al(i):

12z UKMO really doesn't want to make much of it (but has wobbled considerably in recent runs):

ICON not really interested either:

GEM pumps up the volume somewhat:

GFS does the same. But more. 

ECM similarly looks perilous for some:

Given the spread, much to be resolved. But interesting to see the swings in output as ever.

NHC places Helene firmly in the Irish Sea as a tropical storm

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

Interesting...

Beautiful for late September; 1895.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/19_258_850tmp.png?cb=17

GFS 12z showing the potential for very stormy weather early next week as the remnants of #HurricaneHelene approach the UK https://t.co/AXzlRS3mke pic.twitter.com/ZWPIzmXGhC

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 14, 2018

Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.