Hurricane Helene could become one of those interesting northern latitude storms like Ophelia or Vince. Like Medicanes storms that manage to reach high latitudes are very resistant to low SSTs. If wind shear is kept low then tropical status can be maintained even if SSTs fall to below 20C.

Hurricane Helene still with full tropical status threatening Spain.

Everyone is talking about Florence, so Helene is not getting much coverage. However Helene is a truly remarkable storm. We were treated to Ophelia last year, only one year later we have another high latituder! I might do a video or livestream on this hurricane later this evening. Because high latitude tropical storms truly fascinate me!

The UK could do well out of this, with potentially +15 uppers heading our way as a knock on effect.

Remember Ophelia last year and how warm (and smokey) it went for the day or two before it hit Ireland.  Amazing how wide an impact it had not just in terms of stormy weather.

Could even have knock on effects for the winter if warm SSTs are pushed north it could weaken the winter jet and make Easterly flows more likely!

I was wondering if you'd picked up on the recurve potential of this run of cape Verdes Q' !

I do not think they are the last to fall off Africa either so a West African coast and into the Med is still not out of the question?

We will also have plenty of storm on storm action with the fujiwhara effect possibly make studd worse for the carolinas by pulling florence back over the ocean?

As for the 'dozi,doe' going on mid Atlantic? 

Who knows where the storms will get flung but it can put a real 'hurry up' on motion of a storm and so less time to turn ex tropical if it heads north?

The peturbations such a rapid burst of storm activity must have some input on upper atmosphere circulation?

Any malformed 'polar night jet' ,trying to set up later this month, will surely have its positioning/flow impacted by the residual motion of such a mighty 'tweak'? (esp. if lobes reach into the temperate zones?)

Fun time of year eh?

Some models now suggesting real possibility of landfall in Portugal or Spain! Thought Ophelia was a once in a lifetime event, and now we might get a 2nd! 

Something similar did happen in 2005 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince

And 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(2006)

I recall a lot of discussion last year before Ophelia as to whether it was ever possible for a real hurricane to make landfall in UK/Ireland. While it hasn't happened in Iberia, I would have thought that it must be at least a possibility that far South.

I'm a strong advocate of the Affirmative position. 

Putting aside the possible 1961 case (because although it came close most scientists seem to argue it didn't actually make landfall in NI as a tropical cyclone) there have been numerous other tropical systems that have come close to the UK. Hell Ernesto is an example from this year that achieved the same latitude as the UK and was only half way across the Atlantic! 

My position on this is that one day a tropical cyclone will hit the UK, we might not be alive to see it as the rarity may well be at 1/100 year levels. But the evidence, in my opinion, is incontrovertible. All you need is deep cold anomalies in the upper troposphere in the E Atlantic,  low wind shear (which is not that difficult if the jet stays in a normal position in the NW Atlantic) and a storm that follows tracks through the E Atlantic.

Getting all three to happen at once is really really hard, but it can happen as was demonstrated with Ophelia. Take Ophelia and slow down the approaching cold front and we have a potential UK land fall. Hell I found at least one model output that landfilled Ophelia as a tropical cyclone in the UK (and got into quite an argument with Liam Dutton over it). 

There is no physical reason a tropical cyclone or even a hurricane in the UK isn't possible. 

Agreed Q'!

But then there is the chance of a fading 'cane 'threading the needle' into a summer warmed med and see just what a medicane can become?

As long as they fall off Africa near formed then rapid recurve via a blocked Atlantic will see it work up the west of Africa and around into the med.

Or maybe we see the formed 'cane could run into a low that a previous storm left and fukiwhara flings it , sling shot like, directly at ireland and us ( or North across Scotland?).

What we might see is this sudden burst of activity draw up masses of Tropical airs and then a resurgent H.P. 'block them in' over us?

I'd vote for that!

What it does do is bring reliability of the models down to 3 days or so?

To be honest I think medicanes and high lat tropical cyclones are structurally extremely similar. In fact I'd go as far as to consider something like Vince or even Ophelia to be a 'medicane' that isn't in the med! I'm not sure its likely a tropical cyclone could enter the med and stay tropical; that would be one for the books. But sooner or later there will be a big medicane. A Cat 1 storm that is recognized as a truly tropical system. I mean Medicanes are truly tropical, its just that region is ignored but get a big enough one and it won't be ignored any longer.

Climate change will probably make it less likely though. It might make the strong ones a bit more likely, but it'll make formation more difficult.

'Debby', back in '61 didn't make landfall in any part of Ireland, technically speaking, and whether it still technically was a hurricane or TS is still up for debate, but the devastation it cause around these parts was immense and will not be forgotten by those who experienced it. From all of the accounts I have listened to and gathered, one thing is clear, and that is how instantaneous the storm hit, which would  make sense if the actual central low had passed directly over, but that was not the case. Something else was at play here that I can't quite figure out. 

Debby didn't landfall in Ireland but it did landfall in the UK in Northern Ireland.

Like you say though, its disputed whether it still had tropical status. So for absolute proof we can get tropical systems in the UK a modern example is necessary.

And as for the instantaneous destruction in parts of Ireland. Perhaps that was a sting jet? In which case it would have been extratropical not tropical.

My mistake, it didn't (also I thought the NI border went further west!).

Came extremely close to landfalling in Ireland though

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/df/Debbie_1961_track.png

Within 10 miles.

Sting jets, while rare enough in the depths of winter, would be unheard of in the middle of September, and the 'angle of attack' from which it came would be even more rare, if not unheard of (SSW to NNE)

Northern Ireland is in Ireland.

The clue is in the name! 

--------------------------

006

WTNT31 KNHC 111734

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 49A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018

200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH

AND SOUTH CAROLINA...INLAND FLOODING TO FOLLOW...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.1N 66.2W

ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico

Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states

should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be

required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located

near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 66.2 West. Florence is moving

toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-

northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in

forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the

forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the

southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through

Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South

Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-

strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend

for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on

Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major

hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60

miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also

expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the

center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft

Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico

River...6-12 ft

Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30

inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and

Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This

rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant

river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by

late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions

possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and

portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

NI is in Ireland the geographical entity, but not in Ireland the political entity.

I'm not sure Debby was all that political.  She reeked havoc and devastation in both regions. 

Yes, I think we'll keep the political discussion for UIA . I think we know what Q is getting at....

But I do agree with him that, though unlikely, a hurricane could make landfall in the British Isles. Particularly in a globally warmed world. There, that should cause a bit of controversy . 

Is the hurricane landfalling in the British Isles controversial or the fact you agree with me 

Anyway banter aside the 12Z has Helene transitioning quite a bit earlier than the 6Z. The 12Z GFS would have Helene become post tropical at a similar latitude to Ophelia.

From head to toe it's around 20 degrees in latitude that's Madrid to Lerwick!

Jesus Florence

A possible brown ocean storm. Don't think I've ever seen two such bizarre storms in the Atlantic at once.