Four tropical systems all at once, with a 70% possibility of a fifth storm developing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

I always love this link

Inside the eye of Florence - Sept 10.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1039521323654021120

Yes, it never reached cat 5 and was merely a cat 4. NOW Florence has weakened to a cat 3 and meanwhile the super Typhoon Mangkhut in Pacific is heading towards the Philippines and strengthening as it does so and will could potentially be deadly and cause mudslides, which will not only cause fatalities but famine and all etc - yet will probably get little if any media coverage!? 

If Florence continues to weaken I would be furious (with media/news etc) to see Florence weaken to a Tropical storm as it makes landfall causing little damage only to find out that people in the Philippines (where my friends are) get washed away in mudslides along with their houses too - only for the media to still focus on Florence despite it weakening rapidly!!

Everyone lives are equally as important! Also this won't be the worse in 30 years - Irma last year ...as devastating as it was made landfall as a cat 3 and Harvey but luckily to very few if any lives! Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda in 2013 took over 6,000 lives in the Philippines - where was the news coverage?  Many left homeless and not to mention famine in an already LEDC! WHy wasn't the world informed on social media and the general media - like news etc?

Of course - I hope Florence does weaken more as I do with super Typhoon Mangkhut heading for northern Philippines - but surely fair/equal media coverage would only be the least bit appropriate would it not?

Also interesting how they talk more about a pathetic weakened Olivia storm in the Pacific heading to Hawaii but fail/forget to mention about super Typhoon Mangkhut!? Sorry, but this is in the Pacific too and more dangerous that Olivia! - Is the fact they cover Olivia because it's heading towards Hawaii and part of the USA? Hawaii has a population of 1.4 million and they are expecting/experiencing tropical storm winds of 45 mph or Tropical depression to pass! People live well over there!?

Yet Philippines is experiencing a strengthening typhoon/super typhoon Mangkhut with winds of 145mph - which will approach a country that has a population of 100 million. - YET not a word from papers/news or any journalists and nothing on social medial! - Not even the weather channel or AccuWeather!!?

You see what I am getting at ...!?

What do you think of this?

Thanks!

Florence looking a bit ragged this morning with the southern side of the eyewall falling apart - likely due to unmodelled 20kn shear at 500mb. Still forecasting thus to subside giving the storm a chance to intensify again in the next 24hrs.

Regardless the storm surge and flooding will be devastating for a large area.

I sympathise Tally but it’s always been the case that the Atlantic activity gets more prominent coverage here. Many of us including myself have been to the areas affected and know people there, but I agree the Pacific typhoon is mightily impressive and could possibly be significantly more  devastating. 

True: but as far as this forum goes you could always do a regular post on the Pacific or indeed start a dedicated thread on Pacific storms. I suspect that most people in the UK know the Atlantic a lot better that the Pacific and posts here reflect this. Not just cyclones - there's a significant eruption in Alaska at the moment - but if it had been n Iceland?

Anyway, back to the Atlantic.

For Florence, the good news is that it is weakening; the bad news is that the weakening centre has allowed rain and wind to spread across a wider area, and flooding, exacerbated by the stall is due to become the major effect.

Disturbance 2 has become Joyce, so we now have 4 named storms at once in the Atlantic. If the Gulf of Mexico disturbance develops quickly, we might get five simultaneiously, to rival the Pacific earlier this year.Joyce itself looks like dropping in behind Helene and having its development suppressed.

Isacc continues to chug through the Caribbean as a storm, but no hurricane there

Helene now heading for us on Monday, by then as an ex-tropical storm but still vicious. GFS has it standing off the west coast of Ireland, rather wild in the west of Britain but not dire, and with tropical warm air further east. BBC weather at 10pm last night appears to agree. ECM however puts Helene as a well defined feature in the Irish Sea which would be much more damaging.

Life/Death is considered 'cheap' in the Philippines and by implication as someone has already suggested US lives are of course more valuable, the country is somewhere not sure where exactly in the 'far east' whereas the US is a short distance across the pond,  they are used to huge natural disasters and can cope without outside interference. I could go on.

But for 'balance' the BBC have scheduled this programme for the weekend if anyone is interested.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bkzy89

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mhx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no 

Tell me about it - I still want the to cover Florence but at the same time they should cover Typhoon's - but look at what's happening to Florence...? It's weakened from a cat 4 til a cat 2 in 24 hours - when it was supposed to strengthen?!

Fair play to CNN though, leading with Mangkhut even though Florence is on their doorstep in Atlanta

The BBC and Sky still going with Florence even though its rapidly becoming a damp squib and not Trump's "biggest ever"

And Cat 2 is not exactly the strongest / largest major hurricane "to hit the USA in 30 years" is it after all? Was forecast to be a cat 4 today not a cat 2 .

It will be a depression by the time it reaches Atlanta - if it does!!?

I think , after houston last year, folk are more concerned with florence's cargo and surge than wind damage?

If she slows to a crawl then those feeder bands will dump all over local areas and not spread out as the storm pushes through?

If the eye keeps out over water and we see her slip south thern a lot of areas will see a lot of rain so flooding and mudslides will be an issue

GFS and ECM outputs are insane this morning for Hurricane Helene.

They actually show it landfalling near the UK still as a tropical feature. Absolutely unbelievable.

As I say SSTS do not matter for high latitude storms. All we need to do is keep the wind shear down.

I should clarify that tropical status is still official provided the transition is not completed. Both the ECM and the GFS show the storm near the end of the extratropical transition, however it has not completed until after it hits the british isles in these runs.

UKMO shows the transition hasn't even started by the time it has the latitude of northern Spain.

I think we could do it, I think this is the best bet for the first verified tropical incursion with the UK ever.

Still unlikely but becoming increasingly plausible.

Pertubation 12 is interesting!

Pretty sure this would be considered tropical (albeit the transition would be well over 50% completed).

Flicking through the ECM ensembles. Multiple have a UK landfall as a tropical feature. Its still a minority, but I've literally only seen this once before in a model output and that was last year on one of the OP runs for ophelia. We now have multiple models and ensembles suggesting a transition is still underway by the time it hits the UK.

This would be a once in a lifetime event.

For the record I do not expect it to be hurricane strength, more likely TS. And as far as severe weather goes, there may well be yellow/amber warnings but I wouldn't expect it to be memorable in that sense. Only memorable in a meterological sense.

Member 11 of the ECM is ridiculous.

A bonefied Cat 1 hurricane landfalling in Cornwall.

Member 19 of the ECM has a very clear French landfall (probably upper TS strength)

WOW another Cat 1, this time in normandy for member 43.

These are just the highlights, an outright majority of the ensembles keep the system tropical north of Spain. Some have portugese landfalls.

This is just crazy, never seen anything like this before even with Ophelia last year. The Hurricane models HMON and HRWF also keep the thing tropical north of Iberia.

I haven't even got time to look at Joyce which would excite the hell out of me in of itself.

3 high latitude TCs in one year (including Ernesto)! If records were being kept this must already blow it out of the water.