WRF

And landfall in Ireland as an actual Tropical storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (albeit one undergoing transition at this point)

ICON cloud

Helene to the SW of Ireland close to finishing extratropical transition.

Thanks Q, are you able to post any images from the ECM ens you mention?

It would seem a repeat of Ophelia last year is possible. Hopefully she will stay over Ireland again and we get the warmth and red sun

Yes, you are completely right and regardless of category there is a very high concern associated with the flooding. As you say Harvey will still be fresh in people's minds.

was going to say Q

will feel really odd to have Gusts around 60mph, with a steady 30mph wind, with an air temp of about 23-24*C.  

Could this again be about as close to a tropical storm as the UK can possibly get?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

I think that this is something to be concerned about at this stage. It may even deserve its own thread and I'm surprised that it hasn't been picked up in the media yet. I recall last year that, having spent years viewing the NHC website and thinking of it as showing things that happened in far off lands, I found it quite surreal(and unsettling) to be watching the site for clues as to how I and my area might be affected. Certainly not something I enjoyed and the Helene track is quite like Ophelia's. What's worse is that it's earlier in the year when all broadleaf trees will still be in leaf so there is potential for even more damage. Hopefully, it might still veer to the West. 

GFS 12z has 'Helene' hitting the SW UK by Monday, but not as a closed tropical system. Either way though, could bring some tricky conditions. 

Am I right in thinking that we are currently joint top in the record for the number of active systems on the planet at one time?

should Kirk now form up in the G.O.M. we'd take the record!

ECM 12z appears to be doing the same, although it's more difficult to tell due to the 12 hour gap between each forecast period.

Its very close though. I'd say at this stage it still hasn't quite finished the transition.

By the time it landfalls it has, but we don't need much more to delay that transition end for another 3-6 hours. 

ARPEGE goes for Portuguese landfall.

Looking at 6hr frames here and they tell the same story. Most likely will arrive in UK as front embedded system, either as a potent Occlusion or 'wraparound' warm front. 

Interesting times ahead for observers. 

I reckon I will probably do a livestream on this storm this evening. Its truly gobsmacking. 

If anyone is interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPcpEefpcWc

I'll start at 9pm and go through all the model outputs and chance that it will retain tropical identity.

Meanwhile, back in North Carolina.

Latest discussion on Helene.....Advisory #26

Forecast to head up the Irish Sea with sustained winds of 60mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/132048.shtml?

Thanks, I had a look at it. Interesting and a thorough run down through the models. However, your interest and mine are a small bit at variance  Your main interest is whether Helene can hit the UK while retaining tropical characteristics. My main interest is my hope that it avoids my neck of the woods. But you did confirm the wide amount of variety in the forecast path of the storm, tropical or otherwise. It could miss both Ireland and the UK completely or hit us smack bang. Where would your money be on where it is most likely to make landfall?

I've just looked at your live stream about Hurricane Helene which was very interesting with a lot of useful information.

At the risk of being off topic here though, I did notice that this was only your first content on YouTube since the last live stream which you did with Gavin P. towards the end of last winter. That is a long time in the world of YouTube but hopefully, this will be the start of you getting back to producing some great content not just about the weather, but also on the various other subjects which you have covered in the past on your channel.

I'm hoping to get back to it at some point. I've got several video ideas that I'll try and implement at some point. I haven't had a summer holiday this year, that's the main reason for lack of content!

Glad you enjoyed. 

18Z has the Helene transition still fairly close to the UK. It'l be interesting to see if the models have correctly picked up on the initial burst of intensification as it moves north.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

Latest Noaa forecasts suggest landfall in Wales, so a bit further South-East than was forecast yesterday. Hopefully, it keeps drifting South and away from UK/Ireland. The MetEireann website is quite reassuring https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast in saying that the risk of damaging winds is not high, though whether that's because the storm is due to weaken or simply because it is now expected to miss Ireland and pummel someone else, I don't know. However, this https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/140233.shtml? would suggest that the system will not be anything like Ophelia 

So the NHC forecast and the models are quite different. The models are all going for a period of intensification starting pretty much now, whereas the forecasters keep the intensity constant or weaken it.

This is at New Been, NC. Impressive surge.