It would be nice to see the last 30C of the year and a proper farewell for 2018.   Still looking good and warm this week then slightly cooler at the end of the week before warming up again.  Surprised to see the LP out there when yesterday models show nothing at all so either is a mistake as it not possible to form out of no where without a reason.

The end of the week is looking rubbish if the Countryfile forecast is anything to go buy.

I don't trust the models since they been showing very settled first week or 2 of September then suddenly they wanted to create a home grown LP over us without a specific reason to cause the LP to form?  I don't see it coming out from anywhere with huge HP around us.  Hopefully a correction back where it was before. 

Big eddy in jetstream Thu through Sunday https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream 

Is it time to put the fan away yet for another year?

That depression being steered in by the jet stream for the coming weekend looks cool (that dreaded 'green blob') but latest forecasts shows most of the rain in the north. But it looks as if a lot more moisture will come in off the Atlantic in a week's time.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Maybe not!

The actual forecast for here next week keeps changing between cool with showers to warm and dry. It's currently on the cool side on BBC. It's my holiday next week and I'm not feeling too optimistic

A question on the cloud cover charts. How accurate are they and which model do people think is the best?

Indeed. Now you see it, now you don't1 The rain band that was forecast to envelop us next week is now positioned ober Germany & Poland, and the Uk (especially the South) is pretty well dry. Temps about average overall, which hasn't changed.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

BBC have gone the other way this morning with even cooler temperatures and rain on 3 days next week. Hopefully this is BBC being typically slow with their data but I am going to the lakes so it is likely to be wet and cold :(

That's quite a plume for the second half of September!

If that verifies then that would be a date record for 30.0C

I thought Oct a few years ago got 30C unless I'm mistaken

No, it annoyingly maxed out at 29.9C on OCt 1 2011!

But for the next week, LP to the north of the UK, HP to the south, assorted fronts moving irregularly across the country. It'll depend on the timing of these fronts, whether they pass by you in the day or in the night, to determine if you enjoy the weather this coming week

Snow rows have started appearing in the last 24 hours. 

Severe danger of this topic disappearing off page 1 - what does that say about the weather?

Answer: changeable, with the best advice to look at the charts twice a day and oftener if possible as the models can't make up their mind! The fax charts are probably the best in this situation, and even they don't help much! So warm, ven hot, to the south, cool and breezy to the north, and a wriggling front dividing the two for some days to come. But wriggles tend to be random and so the weather across the center of the UK will be unpredictable for several days.

Yup, we've definitely hit that time of the year where the summer fans go quiet as the prospect of heat begins to drain away, the winter fans can't see anything too exciting and the weather itself tends to drift along.

Could be some interest after day 10 depending on how the tropical storms/hurricanes interact with things - I assume it's a tropical storm that bumps in to the Azores high. Might serve to inflate or shove the HP over us and give a late dry and warm spell. GFS shows that one dying as it hits the HP but another presumably by then ex-tropical system ending as a big, vigorous LP system bringing us unsettled weather - so could either help us or just add enough oomph in to things to interrupt the current pattern.

Only other thing I noticed this morning compared to when I've glanced at the previous runs is a tendency to allow the jet to dig a little further South, bringing the threat of more unsettled weather down the country.

When will we see our first named storm of the  Autimn season?

Bit early for those at the moment isn't it?

Bit alarmed at how quickly the cold is expected to set in over Canada:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_264_mslp850.png?cb=837

[quote=briggsy6;1033510]

When will we see our first named storm of the  Autimn season?

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Probably about T200 if the 12z op is to be believed....