Ditto Heathrow area, 54 days of absolute drought just 0.3m in June even August is still below average. 

Well September is going to be a scorcher according to The Mirror, so it must be true! Mind you there's plenty of the usual caveats in there (iow we aint got a clue) such as the possibility of "short lived cooler, unsettled spells" and "parts of the country could see the odd air frost". My waters tell me we could get one more v.warm settled spell before Autumn proper arrives partucularly in the south as usual.

Starting the month as if flicking a switch.

Lovely ensembles, warm & dry for the foreseeable.

This morning sees ECM and GFS Op giving settled, warm conditions throughout the run. The GFS mean from the ENS collection is interesting- clicking through the days, the mean 2m max is in the 20s C in CS England everyday from 1st to 14th.

This has been helped by for example there being no days of below average temperatures generally over England & Wales as far ahead as the 6th and 7th, with only 2 days on the cool side (P11 and 14) by 8th, 3 by 9th and 10th (P12 particularly cold on 10th) and still only 3 as far ahead as 13th.

There are still some high temps forecast, and this is interestingly similar to yesterday morning's run, before the bottom fell out on the 06z.

564 dam line coming into the south again for the weekend, as far as the Fax charts are concerned.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVL89.jpg?cb=99

That's actually a downgrade on what it showed a couple of days ago. Previously, the fronts stayed further north and west and the 564 dam line was somewhere near the Scottish border. 

EC46 update has a very blocked H1 Sep and a more zonal H2.

All along with the return of the nor'easter. Even though SST's around the SE coasts are at their warmest, I'd probably end up with several days of overcast skies and cool winds all rolling in from the North Sea here at this end of Kent.

Of course, that'll all be gone by October, replaced by raging south westerlies lasting for the next four months.

On the Norfolk coast too. We have 17/18 degrees forecastdue to the NW wind. Was ever the way, I know, but like the beginning of the summer when everyone else seemed to be getting mid to high 20’s, we had 15s and 17s, and even worse FOG!

Don't be disheartened by the GFS 6z- look at the ENS to see the Op is visibly low in the pack. In fact, many Ps continue the warm theme well into September. Take P7 (it's OK to cherry-pick; just don't swallow the stone )- for days 1-14 it goes from very warm until the 6th, when a transition to hot takes place in the south, peaking at 30°C on 8th. In fact, 11 of the Ps on 8th show temps reaching or exceeding 24C on the postage stamps- and these don't usually IMO pick out the highest temps, just the general broader scene.

From 8th to 14th, the nights look very like July 1983, with 7 consecutive      17°C + minima (6am temps). By 13th there are still 9 Ps with max above 24C.  Local mean max for first 14 days = 25.5°C and mean  min = 16.3. A brief lull on 15th, still above average, then this sets in:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/7_384_850tmp.png?cb=909

Heading for a further warm up.

Looks like a very warm September is in order.

In September the wind direction matters more. We need something in the Southerly half of the wind rose, or dead calm.

Hence the scatter in temps despite uniformly blocked and dry ensembles.

In fact the GFS12z is a case in point. There are some charts for next week that are uncannily like those in June, but with maxes of 21C rather than close to 30. With similar 850s and clear skies (see next Wednesday and Thursday).

In June those charts were giving chilly low cloud to the East but 28C+ in places like Blackpool.

The same charts in January giving sub-zero maxes and snow flurries, of course.

The forecast is definitely looking much cloudier than June, at least in these parts.

I'd say anything S of NEly can be good in September- at least in the first half of the month, if the upstream conditions are right:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=2&jaar=1991&maand=9&dag=5&h=0&nmaps=24

5th Sep 1991, and:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1999&maand=9&dag=3&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa

from 1999; and:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2006&maand=9&dag=6&uur=1800&var=2&map=1&model=noaa

from 2006. Hopefully there are some later Sep ENElies that do the job too- 1987?

All change this morning as both GFS and ECM produce a nasty little low over S Scandinavia which promptly serves up a very cool northerly flow. GFS generates it a little earlier, with ECM waiting till +144.

 That is the trouble with looking so far ahead.

I disagree. Cloud is always going to be an issue for eastern areas under easterly winds and at this time of year would be less likely to burn off than in June because of the weaker sun.

Low cloud was a big problem for the east during the easterly September 2002 which was only sunny in western parts. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2002/9/2002_9_Sunshine_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif

Fortunately I spent as long weekend in Arrochar from the 20th to 23rd and it was glorious clear blue skies whereas back home it was cloudy.

September 2014 was another one that brought lots of cloud to the east. We had a whole week of fog and overcast skies from the 13th to 19th. Somehow Northumberland managed above average sun but the rest of the east was rubbish

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/9/2014_9_Sunshine_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif

Static snapshot of this. Wow!

The cold chart at the end looks even more interesting when you zoom out. North of the UK pretty much the coldest part of the northern hemisphere, apart from Greenland:

What's most impressive for me is how much tropical characteristics that hurricane has that far north. If that comes off that could pack quite a punch if it hits the UK!

The upset to the nice looking set ups that appeared up to about a day ago is caused in both GFS and ECM by a proper discrete low forming between the HP N of the UK and the HP over N Russia. This effectively prevents extension of our HP over Scandinavia, which led to the very positive warm E/SEly set-ups modelled. 

That signal continues in the GFS 06z but again the green line is low in the chart. The Control handles it interestingly- it develops a separate robust little HP over S.England (1025mb) by T + 210:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/0_210_500mb.png?cb=78

This bulges and settles eastward, allowing the warm ENEly hitherto hinted at to gain a foothold.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/0_276_850tmp.png?cb=996

The Control is quite high in the graph, but has support from a handful of other members.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=441

Much cooler at the end of the week  and some rain

Notice GFS is teasing us again, just out of range of the unforgivable.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_225_mslp850.png?cb=622