Some very high minimums over the next few days should keep the CET fairly stable. I currently have it at 17.64C.

There is a change indicated on Thursday to fresher conditions which at the moment is still suggesting a drop off in the CET to potentially as low as 17.0C by the end of the month.

If the CET did fall to 17C we would still finish just ahead of the summer of 1995 at 17.41C overall.

TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Some very high minimums over the next few days should keep the CET fairly stable. I currently have it at 17.64C.

There is a change indicated on Thursday to fresher conditions which at the moment is still suggesting a drop off in the CET to potentially as low as 17.0C by the end of the month.

If the CET did fall to 17C we would still finish just ahead of the summer of 1995 at 17.41C overall.

TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Some very high minimums over the next few days should keep the CET fairly stable. I currently have it at 17.64C.

There is a change indicated on Thursday to fresher conditions which at the moment is still suggesting a drop off in the CET to potentially as low as 17.0C by the end of the month.

If the CET did fall to 17C we would still finish just ahead of the summer of 1995 at 17.41C overall.

TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Many thanks as always GW 

I've been eyeing that cooler potential with great concern. The hope has been that the pattern will actually turn out flat enough to limit the intrusion, but even if it turns totally westerly, the upstream sequence of events looks to inject some particularly cool air (near 0*C 850s) into the flow. 

Seems like the warmest case scenario limits the period within that cool air to Thursday afternoon (after a mild night) and Friday daytime, while keeping the flow strong enough to keep the night temps from falling too far, and then has renewed ridging from the Azores during Saturday.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Many thanks as always GW 

I've been eyeing that cooler potential with great concern. The hope has been that the pattern will actually turn out flat enough to limit the intrusion, but even if it turns totally westerly, the upstream sequence of events looks to inject some particularly cool air (near 0*C 850s) into the flow. 

Seems like the warmest case scenario limits the period within that cool air to Thursday afternoon (after a mild night) and Friday daytime, while keeping the flow strong enough to keep the night temps from falling too far, and then has renewed ridging from the Azores during Saturday.

The coolest case scenario through to Monday 27th is pretty much the GFS 12z. The way that run then unfolds really shows how likely it is to be 'too little, too late' for the summer CET record as opposed to a total failure of the Nino pattern to materialise before month's end.

It'll be a real shame IMO if it turns out that way as I can see how we could still quite easily finish in the mid-17s if the weekend isn't as cool, which would leave summer 2018 a few rungs nearer to the top of the ladder.

Caz, I hope you have a great holiday! Are you heading abroad? Whether you are or not may make half a degree's difference to the final CET 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 Cheers GW!  

An exciting end to a fantastic summer but I’ll be away from Thursday and won’t Be able to share it.  I’ll pm my September guess before I go. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Met Office Hadley          17.8c.       Anomaly      1.9c.  Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                       18.02c      Anomaly       1.79c

Netweather                    18.53c      Anomaly       2.34c

Alton                            17.9c        Anomaly      0.27c         

Canvey Island               19.8c        Anomaly      1.6c

Cheadle Hulme              17.6c        Anomaly      1.44c

Clevedon Weather          18.7c       Anomaly      1.35c

Darwen                         18.1c       Anomaly      1.68c

Hexam                          17.6c       Anomaly      2.04c

Mount Sorrel                  18.7c       Anomaly     2.07c

Mansfield Woodhouse      18.5c      Anomaly      1.9c 

Peasedown St John         17.3c      Anomaly      -1.02c 

Treviskey Redruth           17.3c.     Anomaly      0.78c.   

Mean Of MY Watched 10 Stations   Using 5 Year average = 18.15c.                              

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Aw, Caz, you've timed it perfectly! We were quite the opposite, away from 24th July and back on 8th- we missed both heatwaves!

Meanwhile, as WI pointed out, it's still quite nail-biting stuff with the models. With a CET min of 16.4 yesterday, it will be interesting to see the daily CET mean figure, and how that impacts on the month to date. When it might snow in winter you get this, but for me, this is even more exciting than watching the July 15 or Sep 16 heat unfold in the models.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Hi Bertie

Im of the view that relatively high minima will blunt the attack of cooler air when it affects us later in the next week.  This is as good as if not better than winter model watching.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

My latest calculations have the CET at 17.74C at the end of Wednesday so very healthy indeed.

Unfortunately after that it is looking decidedly fresh right to the end of the month. This morning's calculations suggest the CET could fall nearly 1C in the final 9 days. Current estimate for the whole of August is just 16.84C which is the lowest figure yet. Given this is based on raw output it bound to be at the lower end of what is likely. Hopefully this cool down will not be quite as severe as is currently indicated.

A finishing number of 16.84C would mean summer 2018 ties 1995 with 17.37C.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

My latest calculations have the CET at 17.74C at the end of Wednesday so very healthy indeed.

Unfortunately after that it is looking decidedly fresh right to the end of the month. This morning's calculations suggest the CET could fall nearly 1C in the final 9 days. Current estimate for the whole of August is just 16.84C which is the lowest figure yet. Given this is based on raw output it bound to be at the lower end of what is likely. Hopefully this cool down will not be quite as severe as is currently indicated.

A finishing number of 16.84C would mean summer 2018 ties 1995 with 17.37C.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

-- HOTTEST EVER SUMMER CHALLENGE (top 6) ---

1. 1976 CET summer average was 17.77C
2. 2018 so far (to the 16th) ----17.74C
3. 1826 was 17.60c
4. 1995 was 17.36c
5. 2003 was 17.33c
6. 2006 was 17.23c

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

  That’s a good way of looking at it!  I hope you’ll do more updates!

There’s not very much between the last three and it looks like there’s a gap waiting to be bridged between 17.60 and 17.36.  But I still have everything crossed for 2018 to take the second spot!  Not because I know anything but because I’m an optimist!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Ouch GW...your post actually made me wince when I read the high 16's ! 

It was so good for so long.

2018 feels like a football team that have been in the automatic promotion spot all season who then lose a couple of games and finish 3rd. A play off final then ends in defeat. 

Come on 2018...play to the final whistle ! 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 A bit like the World Cup!  Something you thought was a thing of the past and then it exceeded all expectations.  It reminded us of what could be and sent us forward with high hopes, even though we all knew the finishing leg would be tough.  Then it fizzled out before the final and left us deflated!  

But!  We know we have the means to do it now! 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

My latest calculations have the CET at 17.74C at the end of Wednesday so very healthy indeed.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Yes, Dominican Republic, with daily means of about 28c.  Is that good or bad for the CET?  

I’m keeping an eye on the hurricane season thread. My brother was there at the same time last year and experienced hurricane Irma!  Whereas, I was in Cape Verde where and when it started!  The weather always does strange things when we go away.  We flew to India on 1st March this year,  leaving the Beast from the East and we came home on 15th, to the start of another!  I’ll try not to start anything this time!     

Originally Posted by: Caz