CET of 19.17C today. Pershore and Rothamsted were both above 20C. A low maximum at Stonyhurst prevented the CET from reaching 20C today.

Yes I was watching the temps on Google- and it looked as if Stoneyhurst was on sort of higher ground. I think you've posted stuff about CET stations before, but can you remind me what the nominated stations were in 76? Also correct me about Stoneyhurst's HAMSL.

If the station is a west facing higher station in NW England, I don't think that's representative of CET. Not a big issue, but maybe worthy of discussion?

Are we saying the stations were different in 1976 ? 

I don't actually know Steve- the second page of this paper:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ParkerHorton_CET_IJOC_2005.pdf

seems to suggest so, with Stonyhurst not listed between 1958 and November 2004. But I might be misinterpreting this complicated little table.

Interesting that there was a 30 year spell from 1974 with 'weighting' for the stations used.

Met Office Hadley          17.9c.     Anomaly      1.9c.   Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       18.07c    Anomaly       1.85c

Netweather                    18.56c    Anomaly       2.37c

Alton                            18.2c      Anomaly      0.57c

Mount Sorrel                 18.6c      Anomaly      1.97c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.4c      Anomaly    1.8c

Peasedown St John   17.3c    Anomaly  -1.02c

Treviskey  Redruth    17.4c    Anomaly  0.88c

Mean Of 10 stations  5 Year Average  18.14c.      

Models not looking great this morning for the summer CET position; it not only looks unusually cool Fri-Sat, but the cooler air sets in by Thursday morning now with the very mild preceding night lost (though ECM is still milder so there's a little something), and then it takes unhelpfully long for the push of HP from the southwest to bring back warm conditions and turn the CET trend back around.

Unsure how much to trust GFS' 6-8*C minima, 14-17*C maxima combinations - at the very least I'd expect early Friday to be less cool given the brisk flow - but the fact is, we need some considerable flattening of the jet between the UK and Scandinavia in order to avoid a CET fall that will give the final 5 days a huge amount of work to do in order to place 2018 within the 'elite' of the historical summers.

What really bugs me, is that the degree to which the trough digs south is beyond the historical spread of outcomes for the current set of background 'drivers' of the atmosphere; it's a freak event that occurs in response to an exceptionally intense trough/storm over NE Canada on Thursday.

So if it does hurt the summer CET as bad as the models currently indicate, it will feel like we've been cheated a bit... but that's extreme weather events for you; they just happen sometimes! 

A 19C CET today. Cumulative CET for August now stands at 17.77C by my calculations.

Tomorrow should see another 19C CET followed by 18C on Wednesday with the CET peaking at 17.84C.

Beyond that the output just keeps getting cooler. A really cold set of numbers today has the CET finishing at 16.71C.

Frustrating that just 9 days from the end of summer we are less than 0.4C below what would give a record summer CET. As it is if the CET does end up falling as low as 16.71C, 2018 would only be the fifth warmest summer.

That in many respects is a depressing post. There is now the real possibility of August falling below 16.7C and therefore the summer CET not even making the 'Top Five'.

Quite remarkable in some respects after a really good June and excellent July. But we have been here before: 2006. 

Seriously though, this will go down as one of my greatest summers and it’s been all the better for having shared it on here with other like minded people!  None of my friends or family have a clue what I’m on about when I rave about the CET!  

Met Office Hadley         18.0c.     Anomaly    2.0c.   Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      18.15c     Anomaly    1.92c

Netweather                   18.62c     Anomaly    0.57c

Hexam                         17.6c       Anomaly   2.04c

Mansfield Woodhouse    18.5c       Anomaly   1.9c

Peasedown St John       17.3c       Anomaly   -1.02c

Treviskey Redruth         17.4c       Anomaly   0.88c

Mean of My 10    18.23c.        

I can see the CET getting up as high as 18.1 or 18.2 before the fall begins.  My view is that cloud amounts overnight will be crucial in limiting how far the CET falls during the coolest phase 24-27 August.  Depending on how that situation plays out, presently I predict a finishing number something in the region of 17.4c

and who's gone for 17.4c ?

You've guessed it..the unstoppable Darren S ! 

I believe there's a chance we'll be back into a balmy tropical maritime flow again by Monday with further mid-teens minimums and low-mid 20s maximums... I wonder how much that would recover the CET? Particularly if using ECM instead of GFS for the Thu-Sun period as it modifies the incoming cool airmass more as it journeys over. I'd look myself but I've got a lot going on right now - maybe later...!

Somehow I'd not be that surprised if we did defy the odds and finish in the mid-17s with Darren S widening the gap from the rest of us even more. Just what is his secret? 

I think you are right in your latest analysis.  The Tm air you speak of will serve to stabilise the CET - so I think IF the cold nights can be limited by cloud then if we get to say 17.3 by 28th, then it will stay close that figure, pre adjustments.  Im hoping it will be one of those months where we get an upward adjustment!

Last night was very mild here!  18c at 4am, so I think another uptick might be on the cards tomorrow!  

I tried to keep the weather positive with my prediction.

I failed!

I tried reverse psychology with my sensible guess and hoped the weather would stay bonkers!  It seems that didn’t work either!   

Still with you on the positive mantra WI; GFS op currently rolling out has just 3 cold nights in the Pershore-Stonyhurst belt (Thurs, Fri, Sat nights) then things mild up again but the roll-out isn't complete yet so this is more moved-through-midfield than cross-in-the-box.  

Update to my earlier comment- GFS has another cold night Wed next week, but there have been some good days, and repairs are in place again before the end of the month. Some high daytime temps too to kick off the new month. Now, to be level headed, we must wait and see where the Op sits in the pack. Also, this excitement is trespassing on MOD territory.

Such fun.

I calculate a CET of 19.77C today. 

August mean now stands at 17.86C. It could rise to 17.88C tomorrow. After that it is downhill all the way.

The maximum CET for August is currently 0.9C above the 1981-2010 mean

The minimum CET for August is currently 1.3C above the 1981-2010 mean

Some positive adjustments from the GFS 12z for Sun-Mon but then the flow isn't quite warm or strong enough to prevent that continued slide when using the raw numbers.

Even with some attempt at bias adjustment, all that happens is a levelling off of the trend for the final three days, placing the final CET at around 17.1*C.

We'd need some widespread very warm weather from Tuesday onward to reach even a couple of tenths higher.

Maybe, with any luck, it will turn out that GFS is lowering temps way too fast in the clear spells between the blustery showers on Friday night. Not sure that's likely for Saturday night though; the flow does look to slacken then.

In the end, though, we're staring down a tunnel toward a CET tragedy. I'm left looking at my local summer mean and wondering if it can weather the storm - it's currently 0.6*C above the 1976 and 1995 joint-record.

I wish I'd gone a bit lower actually. Hopefully my good luck will continue though