The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
21 July 2018 10:13:44

GFS 06Z much warmer out to next Thursday. Hot air is being sucked up from the south as the low stays a little bit further west.

BBC forecast just now mentioned temps getting into the mid-30s by the middle of the week.

Everything is shaping up for a hot week!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

I was told yesterday (by a good source) that there is genuine concern about this phase of the hot summer due to humidity and temperature levels exceeding what we have seen to date. Obviously the main focus is in the south and south east.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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sizzle
21 July 2018 10:14:39

After a hot 1995 summer what came after... A early very cold snowy 1995/6 winter. that started late November early December. I wonder what effect this summer will be on winter this year...

sizzle
21 July 2018 10:17:03

GFS 06Z much warmer out to next Thursday. Hot air is being sucked up from the south as the low stays a little bit further west.

BBC forecast just now mentioned temps getting into the mid-30s by the middle of the week.

Everything is shaping up for a hot week!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

yep it could reach 36 degrees in the south/south east is what I heard... its could be more one to watch.

golfingmad
21 July 2018 10:20:23

 

I was told yesterday (by a good source) that there is genuine concern about this phase of the hot summer due to humidity and temperature levels exceeding what we have seen to date. Obviously the main focus is in the south and south east.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes the BBC also mentioned increased humidity levels, making it more uncomfortable at night to sleep.

Real possibility now of the highest temperatures of the summer being recorded next week. As you say S and E most affected, but if the position of the low continues to move a little more westward then the W and N could see more of the heat!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
golfingmad
21 July 2018 10:23:01

yep it could reach 36 degrees in the south/south east is what I heard... its could be more one to watch.

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Comments have been made that, so far this summer, we haven't had the 'hallmark' heatwave to make this a classic summer.

Strong possibility now this is about to change. But in any case, sitting in Cambridge, this has been a special summer so far as it is!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
golfingmad
21 July 2018 10:26:51

Decidedly different flavour from this morning's GFS out to T+180. The low does track a little further west and hastens more rapidly to the north. This results in a fast resurgence of high pressure from the SW. 

Incredible run so far. Definitely a hot week coming up if this comes off!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
The Beast from the East
21 July 2018 10:32:57

 

I was told yesterday (by a good source) that there is genuine concern about this phase of the hot summer due to humidity and temperature levels exceeding what we have seen to date. Obviously the main focus is in the south and south east.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes, the danger is when temps dont fall at night. Old people in badly insulated houses and flats will suffer even with fans

I'm struggling myself at night, I dread to think what this week will bring

I'm also concerned my fridge freezer will cronk out as it struggles to maintain the temperature

 

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Rob K
21 July 2018 10:49:21

 

Yes the BBC also mentioned increased humidity levels, making it more uncomfortable at night to sleep.

Real possibility now of the highest temperatures of the summer being recorded next week. As you say S and E most affected, but if the position of the low continues to move a little more westward then the W and N could see more of the heat!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Even this morning sitting out in the garden 24C felt very hot and humid after last night’s rain, and it could potentially get 10C hotter than that by the end of the week!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

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Northern Sky
21 July 2018 10:55:39

 

Yes, the danger is when temps dont fall at night. Old people in badly insulated houses and flats will suffer even with fans

I'm struggling myself at night, I dread to think what this week will bring

I'm also concerned my fridge freezer will cronk out as it struggles to maintain the temperature

 

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Looks horrendously hot and humid, especially for the SE. Another point to add to my long list of reasons to be glad I live in the North. Having said that, it still looks horribly hot even up here. Could be some rain about on Friday though?

Rob K
21 July 2018 10:57:12
From worrying about the potential for a washout week in Yorkshire I am now a bit concerned about the heat. I’m doing an all-day mountain-bike race on the 5th which is tough enough in normal Yorkshire weather. Temperatures of 80F+ are not what I’d want that day!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=372&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20 (C)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
21 July 2018 10:58:41

August 03 end to the GFS 6z. 

If this run verifies we'd be very close to the all time record 38.5c. We've probably not had a better chance to beat it since 03.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
golfingmad
21 July 2018 11:08:40

August 03 end to the GFS 6z. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

No let up right to the end. Classic hot weather set-up right through to FI, the SW/NE high pressure block in full force.

Relentlessly hot and humid. Sizzling sums it all up really, even for parts of the N and W.

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Gary L
21 July 2018 11:42:47

I would be more inclined to say this is just natural variation.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Very difficult to pin any single event on Climate change. Theoretically there is good evidence of a weakening of the westerlies with climate change that would lead to more of these types of events. Natural variation + climate change would likely lead to an amplified effect I guess!

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2018 11:43:12
Not much respite in the 06z. In fact we break the record possibly 2-3 days in a row at the end.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ballamar
21 July 2018 12:14:57
Charts continue as is there 100f will be broken - creeping up like the winter blocking. Again could cause a few issues with elderly/vulnerable
Gusty
21 July 2018 12:28:21

Oh my gosh ! 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Polar Low
21 July 2018 12:32:03

I have not  seen such a Hot n/e including most of Europe on 

ecmwf monthly forecast  running out 12/08

We are on brink of something very special dont copy and paste those 

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2018 12:32:07

From worrying about the potential for a washout week in Yorkshire I am now a bit concerned about the heat. I’m doing an all-day mountain-bike race on the 5th which is tough enough in normal Yorkshire weather. Temperatures of 80F+ are not what I’d want that day!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=372&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, my sister’s at the Countryfile show that weekend and is hoping it doesn’t rain.  Looks like it might be unbearably hot!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2018 12:33:46

I would be more inclined to say this is just natural variation.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I’d agree. Only a few months ago we were bemoaning the ‘death of the Easterlies’. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Polar Low
21 July 2018 12:38:24

Hints of pressure rise as we head into August but look at those T2M

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

 

Oh my gosh ! 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Hungry Tiger
21 July 2018 12:40:51

Waiting for Gavin Ps forecast for this week. Looks like it maybe interesting.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2018 12:58:57
Just a reminder of maxes in the SE based on the 06z op (+2C), which is at the upper end long term but not an outlier:

Sat 30

Sun 29

Mon 31

Tues 32

Wed 31

Thurs 32

Fri 36

Sat 29

Sun 30

Mon 31

Tues 31

Wed 32

Thurs 34

Fri 36

Sat 37

Sun 37

Hmm.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
xioni2
21 July 2018 12:59:55

I have not  seen such a Hot n/e including most of Europe on 

ecmwf monthly forecast  running out 12/08

We are on brink of something very special dont copy and paste those 

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

And that's the old run, the latest one is even warmer and more blocked with high pressure building westwards over the UK and persisting until early Sep.

Hungry Tiger
21 July 2018 13:10:42

What is the July high record temp? I wonder if its under threat this next week.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2018 13:13:17

Just a reminder of maxes in the SE based on the 06z op (+2C), which is at the upper end long term but not an outlier:

Sat 30
Sun 29
Mon 31
Tues 32
Wed 31
Thurs 32
Fri 36
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 31
Tues 31
Wed 32
Thurs 34
Fri 36
Sat 37
Sun 37

Hmm.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Hmm indeed. The last 3 days of that run are utter insanity. Just as well it's 2 weeks away!

 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

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