The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

superteacher
17 July 2018 17:06:30

Did I personally write off August then? I think you will find I was commenting on considerably worse charts from 3 of the big 4 and then said IF ECM starts to backtrack we could start thinking about a final breakdown.

It's going to happen sooner or later. Forgive me for commenting on the models in the model thread.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Hyperbole. Just very odd that it’s usually charts that show worst case scenarios that you mention! Your reputation proceeds you I’m afraid!

Yes it will end at some point. When the breakadown is below 120 then we can worry.

 

moomin75
17 July 2018 17:11:18

 

Hyperbole. Just very odd that it’s usually charts that show worst case scenarios that you mention! Your reputation proceeds you I’m afraid!

Yes it will end at some point. When the breakadown is below 120 then we can worry.

 

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I was commenting on the models, simple as that. It's not my fault they are looking worse than they were yesterday.

FWIW I want this to continue for as long as possible.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

superteacher
17 July 2018 17:18:51

I was commenting on the models, simple as that. It's not my fault they are looking worse than they were yesterday.

FWIW I want this to continue for as long as possible.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Fair enough but don’t get hung up on a few op runs in FI. You know it will be different on the next run!

Roger Parsons
17 July 2018 17:19:23

I think you mean "precedes" me. If you're going to slate me, get your grammar right. I was commenting on the models, simple as that. It's not my fault they are looking worse than they were yesterday.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

Quite right, Moomin. Keep up those standards. Proper English is our heritage.

An interesting alternative might be "prevents me", drawing on the anglicised old French "prévenir" - to go before.

More grammar police are needed.

Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

superteacher
17 July 2018 17:25:25
It was a typo Moomin. Get over it.
moomin75
17 July 2018 17:27:48

It was a typo Moomin. Get over it.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I did, which is why I deleted it. It was the journalist in me coming out. I sub edit everything 😊😋😊 Forgiven? 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

David M Porter
17 July 2018 17:32:43

Last Tuesday's GFS 12z run for today

 

And what actually happened

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Well pointed out, Kevin.

Also, what happened to the thundery breakdown from the south that a few GFS and ECM op runs about three weeks ago were indicating for the beginning of July? Hmmm.

As someone said earlier, the models at times this summer seem to have had a hard time of it when trying to correctly predict what happens more than half-a-dozen or so days ahead.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Argyle77
17 July 2018 17:34:30
Met think it might turn very hot as we enter August ,looking forward to the models showing great heat soon.
superteacher
17 July 2018 17:36:13

 

I did, which is why I deleted it. It was the journalist in me coming out. I sub edit everything 😊😋😊 Forgiven? 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

😂😂😂😂 of course! Would be boring if we all agreed I suppose!

moomin75
17 July 2018 17:39:14

 

😂😂😂😂 of course! Would be boring if we all agreed I suppose!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Indeed. Contrary to popular belief, I don't want to see a breakdown, nor do I just comment on crap charts.....but I do see a bit more cross model agreement coming into play. That's not to say it will happen, as we have been waiting for the breakdown for weeks. I think the ensembles will be important, but the UKMO longer range forecast mentioned hot or VERY HOT which we don't see often.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Argyle77
17 July 2018 17:40:21

Does this mean we might get a blocked winter with great cold building to follow the blocked summer 🤣.Have we ever gone from a hot blocked summer to a very cold blocked winter.

 

David M Porter
17 July 2018 17:42:28

I know that the MetO text forecasts are as prone to change as anything else and they have not always been proved correct with their thoughts for more than a week ahead. That said, they don't seem to have done badly this summer thus far according to my recollection, and I would submit they have been more accurate this season thus far than was often the case last summer.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

briggsy6
17 July 2018 17:49:55

I've forgotten what rain looks like it's been so long. South East England has started to resemble Sub Saharan Africa.

Location: Uxbridge
golfingmad
17 July 2018 17:51:54

I think it's also worth pointing out that, of all the models, GFS has been all over the place, even at T120 let alone FI. Such have been the lurches from one position to another between runs that any credibility GFS may offer has been thrown out the window. 

I'll only believe that a change may be on the way if all models are in agreement and inside T120. 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Polar Low
17 July 2018 18:07:03

What down grade Tim? those look look hot for London some very hot later on very little rain

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

 

 

 

 

Poor GEM and somewhat worse UKMO than this morning.

I expect one more downgrade this evening for 18z (and a downgrade on this evebing’s ECM), then a day of improvements tomorrow.

SJV
17 July 2018 18:29:52

Yes this downgrade talk is utter nonsense and is symptomatic of those who ride the emotional roller-coaster of over-analysing every model run and losing sight of the bigger picture. Considering this week was supposed to be the week where the warm and dry weather was to break - it just hasn't been the case.

Hotting up again this weekend and then beyond it is obviously more uncertain. Nothing in the output to suggest anything other than warm/ very warm conditions for much of England with an emphasis on hot the further S and E you are. Thundery interludes likely but troughing has been over-egged and the blocking high underplayed, too.

Joe Bloggs
17 July 2018 18:34:39

Yes this downgrade talk is utter nonsense and is symptomatic of those who ride the emotional roller-coaster of over-analysing every model run and losing sight of the bigger picture. Considering this week was supposed to be the week where the warm and dry weather was to break - it just hasn't been the case.

Hotting up again this weekend and then beyond it is obviously more uncertain. Nothing in the output to suggest anything other than warm/ very warm conditions for much of England with an emphasis on hot the further S and E you are. Thundery interludes likely but troughing has been over-egged and the blocking high underplayed, too.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Sensible post. Once you get beyond T+168 you should really ignore op/det runs and focus on the ensemble data only. It’s guidance that people tend to ignore time and time again, whether it’s in summer or winter, single operational runs are largely useless beyond T+168/192.

For this summer alone a general decent tactic seems to be to stick with the MetO up to T+144.

Here in NW England we have lost the exceptional dryness and heat for now, although there’s still nothing to distract from the classic nature of the summer, and nothing in the current forecast either. 

golfingmad
17 July 2018 18:43:29

 

Sensible post. Once you get beyond T+168 you should really ignore op/det runs and focus on the ensemble data only. It’s guidance that people tend to ignore time and time again, whether it’s in summer or winter, single operational runs are largely useless beyond T+168/192.

For this summer alone a general decent tactic seems to be to stick with the MetO up to T+144.

Here in NW England we have lost the exceptional dryness and heat for now, although there’s still nothing to distract from the classic nature of the summer, and nothing in the current forecast either. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Completely agree.

Talking of T+168/192, ECM this evening is going for very warm to hot right up to T192.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Arcus
17 July 2018 18:50:09

Yes this downgrade talk is utter nonsense and is symptomatic of those who ride the emotional roller-coaster of over-analysing every model run and losing sight of the bigger picture. Considering this week was supposed to be the week where the warm and dry weather was to break - it just hasn't been the case.

Hotting up again this weekend and then beyond it is obviously more uncertain. Nothing in the output to suggest anything other than warm/ very warm conditions for much of England with an emphasis on hot the further S and E you are. Thundery interludes likely but troughing has been over-egged and the blocking high underplayed, too.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Quite. Too many people squeezing too much out of the mid to longer term output that is changing run by run, purely for effect. I seem to recall 10 days ago much the same was occurring, and look where we are now. It would appear some of Team Tena have forgotten to hibernate this summer...

 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

superteacher
17 July 2018 18:59:06
Breakdown? ECM says no.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 19:07:06
Yes ECM looks a bit better.

I do wonder what the point of a model output discussion is if it’s not to comment on the model output.

There would be no complaints if people talked about upgrades.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
17 July 2018 19:07:41

Arpege has 32C for Saturday:

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

NickR
17 July 2018 19:08:31

Yes ECM looks a bit better.
I do wonder what the point of a model output discussion is if it’s not to comment on the model output.

There would be no complaints if people talked about upgrades.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

superteacher
17 July 2018 19:11:35

Yes ECM looks a bit better.
I do wonder what the point of a model output discussion is if it’s not to comment on the model output.

There would be no complaints if people talked upgrades.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

It’s fine to comment but it’s comments about FI charts, summers over etc that spoil it. Or putting too much emphasise on one chart.

ECM looks miles better than GFS. You are a hard man to please!

I think the 00z runs will show more agreement and I hope your prediction of upgrades comes true!

LeedsLad123
17 July 2018 19:12:35

Yes ECM looks a bit better.
I do wonder what the point of a model output discussion is if it’s not to comment on the model output.

There would be no complaints if people talked about upgrades.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I think the problem is that certain people seem to comment more on the downgrades than the upgrades.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Remove ads from site