73 days I think that was.

According to this article by Philip Eden the longest drought in 1995 was 42 days at Margate, so should be on course to break that. Wikipedia says 1976 had a 45-day drought in parts of the southwest.

Only on our 30th day of drought here.

I cant believe the output I'm seeing.

If I have this correct (ECM biased) it's now looking likely that down here many parts will stay dry for the foreseeable with a heat reload from as early as Thursday. 30c (86f) is on the cards for a week or so thereafter. 

Was supposed to be 22-25C all this week but look how much it change at the very short term never mind the mid to long term.  I think this is the habit that will keep going until summer is out.  Today actually I felt pleasant and allow me to do the packing for moving to Lower Stoke, Kent possible next week which might be during the heatwave.  No date fixed but with no rain for foreseeable allow us to move without getting wet.

GFS 6Z op run is certainly not having any of this heatwave nonsense! Return of the dreaded green blob.

06z look very nice and still going for very warm hot weekend as other recent hot weekend and later on the worse charts are in FI as usual,  Remember they show the bad charts for 21st for few days now is pushed forward to 25th so that likely to be pushed forward again.  The dates they tried to bring the unsettled weather was on first few days of July, then 15th , 17th, 19th, 21st and now 25th.

You have been saying that all summer. You know it's good summer when certain members are looking for breakdowns at 8-10 day range. 

Is that more 'reverse psychology'? It won't work if everybody knows you're doing it!

Peak heat next week? Looks very possible.

So today would be the last coolest day and even now 26.4C here felt cool after the 28-32C heat recently.  Mean I would be recording over 80F for 2 weeks from the graph above and perhaps low  to mid 90's for couple of days on the peak.  I think 35C would be the likely outcome as we got the perfect ingredients in place.

They must have a reinforced signal for the furnace. 

I expect hosepipe bans to move in to some central counties later on, perhaps even further south. 

Then tomorrow is upgrade day again.

ECM has pulled back from the furnace. Closer to GFS now.

At least this Friday doesn’t look so wet anymore, at least not in the U.K. (my French place is getting 50mm in 3 hours according to 06z).

I’m pretty sure I’ve heard them refer to “very hot“ as meaning 34C+. (hot = 28C+, something most countries would laugh at).

I am sure that some places will get a 35+ before the end of what is now an incredible summer. There's still 6 weeks of summer left and plenty of time for many long standing records too be broken.

Yea, end of next week. Deep FI. So won’t happen.  But you know thst.

All talk of 35C is not just FI, it’s speculation about what a future FI might be. If 204 hours is too far out to predict a depression then predicting 35C is a step beyond.

UKMO also seems to be becoming more progressive and backing GFS to an extent and GEM isn't great either. 

All eyes on the ECM now. If that backs off, we are heading towards a bit of agreement about a final breakdown.

Just as UKMO LRF mentions hot or very hot. You couldn't make it up.

Yes becoming cool and quite wet for Western areas from next Tuesday, a strong signal now for the PFJ to push South.

I expect one more downgrade this evening for 18z (and a downgrade on this evebing’s ECM), then a day of improvements tomorrow.

Moomin you should know better to call a poor August with no evidence. Unless you have some evidence?

Same people were writing off this week as a write off saying summer was over.

It's going to happen sooner or later. Forgive me for commenting on the models in the model thread.

Last Tuesday's GFS 12z run for today

And what actually happened