Broadly agree but we're looking for trends and they currently suggest the second half of July will be appreciably less settled than the first half. How this pans out in detail is open to many interpretations but at the moment, I'm going for a slow transition to a more climatological pattern where the south-east sees more in the way of warmer, drier conditions and the northwest sees more in the way of an Atlantic influence. I wouldn't rule at least one significant hot plume event  in the south and east before months end.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=1

Some extreme heat for Spain

Still largely high pressure dominated, but a greater chance of showers than recently

Likely to strike us later or early August eventually as like past great summer's always get those extreme temps results.  We have a perfect ingredient for high record breaking temps with so dry ground now  warmer sea temps and warm ground temps.

Surprised no comments on the 6z update. GEFS look very warm and not very wet in the south

Just looking at this now Brian... amazing (compared to recent summers) at how much we stay above average for upper air temps, with a strong pattern desire to stay above +10*c .  Weve struggled to get that on occasions in the past

If we could make it to Monday for rain, then it would mark exactly a month since our last rainfall here on the Wirral.  A record some places to the south east might not be so crazy, but for the north west of England  - it really is.

And even that wasn't on the back of a wet spell. I remember a month ago it had that "you can smell the rain" before it rained moment that you get when it hasn't rained for a while. It's been insanely dry for these parts.

If we have to have an unsettled spell, I'm hoping we get a similar break down to the ones in May and June which was a rainy day, followed by a mixed but mainly dry and mild 2 or 3 days, followed by weeks of endless warm sun. I don't think that is out of the question yet!

Will be a change. I’m in Madrid today and not only is the grass a touch greener here than in London (they had a very long spring that only turned into summer in July) but it’s realky quite pleasant - 30C with a breeze and thunderheads forming over the Sierra.

Well on the bright side if the start of the summer hols turns into a washout that's a good angle for me. Excellent for site traffic. 

I did enjoy the parched landscapes, but warm and wet would be better than cold and wet.

Look like a short term rainfall mid-month in form of thunderstorms so some areas areas get it or not then drier again with average temps which by now around 24-25C for the peak summer days.  But thing is the GFS had been very poor lately and they even put huge rain spikes today?  They show lot of rain spikes in early July which didn't happen.  So in the last over 1 month GFS ensembles had been very poor with the low uppers and huge daily rain spikes, haven't seen them making it flat lined dryness since the start of the dry spell.

I check it and it still in the FI range  9-10 days away, still looking very decent this week then some thunderstorm after the hot weekend then some HP days next week before slack LP in the FI appear but nothing to effect badly like last year dartboard LP that sat over us so that might push further away or change.  Over the top misleading statement and not rain fest.  You need a cold dartboard LP to sit over us and nothing showing in the 9-10 days range, just some showers around and decent temps around.  

Yet again people reacting to one set of model runs. People know all of this, but still insist on posting the same cliched lines.

1. It’s al still deep in Fi (9 - 10 days away)
2. GFS precipitation charts are useless.
3. The teleconnections and long term signals do not support a trough parked over or near the U.K.

There may be a blip to less settled weather, but that’s all it may be.

Two words spring to mind here: "Jumping" and "gun".

Then on 240hrs chart show Azores HP moving in and to link up with Scandi HP.  There will be some thunderstorms early next week but nothing like last year cold dartboard LP that sat over us non-stop to winter months.  Surprised no posts about the coming hot weekend here as I would see low 30's providing lot of sunshine around.

The same people have written off summer every day for 2 1/2 months now. Fair enough, it is looking more mixed in the next week or so but beyond that, we have no idea. Forecasts are struggling to get a grip on next week. Changing every day between raining all next week to not at all to one or two days! Looks like it's a day on and a day off this morning. Hoping to keep the temperatures up above 20C and quickly get back to settled conditions.

I'm in York this weekend. Looking good for that :)

That's moomin75 for you, he does it all the time.

Nor to me.

The actual charts seem pretty OK out to around the 240z mark (GFS then brings in Atlantic dirge from the NW after that), with strong ridging from the AH, and even hints of high pressure to our E/NE developing, which if it came off would, you'd assume, bring back that stable block scenario. Nothing particularly hot, but pleasant-looking.

The GEFS show a fair amount of rain around, so perhaps that's where people are getting the doom from.

Indeed it doesn't. Certainly not bone dry ,looks warm & somewhat showery to me. Looks like the best GFS run I've seen for some days, gone are the LPs sitting over us, there have been some quite nasty looking charts (albeit in FI) just recently. If only the Azores high was more 'ridgey' and properly linked up with the Scandy high, but it never quite manages it.

Well said.

I use the GEFS SLP average as a rule of thumb, which usually works well. If it’s clistered above 1015hPa the weather will be relatively dry; below and it’ll be relatively wet.

Proper sundrenched high summer weather happens from 1020 upwards (arguably 1025 if you want it to last), and dartboard lows below 1000. Anything from 1005-1010 in high summer usually equals slow moving convective showers.

I am feeling reasonably pessimistic because the SLP mean has been trending to low 2010s from early next week, for several runs now. Not dartboard lows, but suggestive of unsettled weather. There are no ensemble members taking pressure up to 1025 or anywhere near at any point in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=208&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=

Last month it was consistently showing means at or just under 1020 for most of 180-384hrs.

06z was actually a small improvement on the last few, longer term.