That's showing yesterday's 12Z.

It's a bit closer on the 0Z, but still some way to the north, and drags up some quite warm upper air, 14C on the south coast.

Based on one GFS 06z run, one of the GFS runs which I think many people consider to be among the less reliable of the four daily op runs? Hmmm.

I've never before noticed the daily variation in 850hPa temps. Is this caused by diurnal heating of the layer that high up?

Agreed. Only when the main models are in agreement and inside T120 will I take any 'change' more seriously.

It might not happen - things can change even this late in the day - but this evening GFS, UKMO and GEM all show variations on the same thing: a switch in the hemisphere-wide pattern of ridges and troughs which once established, can be hard to shift.

Yes far too many swigging the drama juice when it's just one run from a notoriously progressive model. A change is on the way, but how pronounced and long-lasting that change will be is yet to be determined. To write off summer is a bit much 

It's also worth pointing out that a change from the current set-up may not necessarily lead to significantly cooler conditions. Low pressure positioned to the west may bring rain but it could also push warmer air from the south leading to 'plume' like hot spells. So we could be in a transition from warm and dry to warm and wet. The north and west, previously the driest of the areas in this recent warm spell, may get most of this rain, whereas the south and east may get the drier and warmer temps. Today's GFS12z run actually suggests a classic example out in T264!

Either way, whatever the outcome, summer isn't over yet. We would be very unlucky to get a summer of 'two halves', although I would be the first to admit that such an outcome is not out of the question. 

ECM run this evening will be interesting.

I suspect of greater concern would be the high pressure over Scandi/N Europe retreating eastward with LP taking up residence in its wake, if it's a continuation of prolonged settled weather you're after.

One of the main features of our prolonged dry/warm spell has been the top-up ridging from Azores into Scandi. If that breaks down then we're back to looking for Azores ridging over the UK with LP to the west following on, which whilst it would tend to be more transitory in nature would might offer more extreme plume heat, with the traditional thundery breakdown to follow.

EDIT: and quite well illustrated by the 12z Op in the longer term:

How can you write off the rest of summer based on one chart up to 25th July? That makes zero sense

The Beast From the East was a rare beast - it had virtual cross model agreement at T120 and remained so down to T0. There was also very little inter run variance. With this set up, there is model divergence at T96. The models are dealing with a very complex set up. Of course it will possibly turn less settled, but even thst is not totally sorted yet. The longer term signals don’t support a significant unsettled spell.

We need to be mindful that this new 'relatively more unsettled' pattern could bring with it the possibility of injections of very warm and relatively moist airmasses courtesy of plumes from the S or SW or SE.

Those thinking that the pattern change will result in lower temperatures may need to adjust expectations.

A CET of close to 20c is still a possibility thanks to warm nights keeping the current high value well bolstered.  

We may lose the 28c day and 13c nights in favour of something more like 25c days and 17c nights. 

Latest ECM still holding firm with a flabby set-up before high pressure reasserts. GFS is still bent on a full breakdown with a nasty resolution in FI. If that came off you may as well cancel the school holidays.

I suspect something between the two may be the resolution. Low pressure parked out west pushing warm air from a southerly quadrant. This could make the second half of July very interesting!

That's my take on things. A half way house would put the all time monthly CET record of 19.7c in jeopardy. 

That's what I wondered. Thought I must be missing something.

Through the Magical Kingdom of the UK, no breakdown from North Atlantic Low Pressure is currently being forecasted.

The 12z ECMWF, UKMO and GFS back up continued UK Europe Continental Dry very warm or warm and sunny and hot weather conditions with some cloudiness as well at times, light calm or breezy winds from Continent.

It’s been interesting over the last few days reading thoughts on here compared to the Met Office forecast. 

The models have seemed less than certain of a breakdown yet the MO have remained resolute, upgrading this tonight with a statement calling time on this fine spell.

no, they haven’t. Apart from the far north west, the majority will see a continuation of above average temps, fine & dry spells well into August. In fact, as far as the forecasts go there is no mention of any notable unsettled period. 

The difference seems to be to our North East, and the degree to which low pressure across the Baltic and Poland extends our way and pushes HP over into arctic Russia.

An attempted breakdown next week could well be on the cards but how far SE and for how long is pretty much up in the air.

Morning all.

Across the big three we seem to have taken a step back from anything too unsettled.

For the majority I see generally high pressure driven weather continuing well into next week. Anything especially unsettled is pushed right back into the depths of FI.

Happy with the trends this morning. If nothing else we are about to treated to yet another warm and sunny weekend for most. 

Time will tell I guess.

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Jul 2018 to Tuesday 24 Jul 2018:

Following the remarkable spell of dry, fine and very warm weather, changes are expected at the start of this period.

For the south it will continue warm or very warm in the next 10 days but with a growing threat of showers and storms. Fww longer term there is a mix of messages which would, at worst, create a standard summer pattern of LP to the NW and Atlantic influence. As always that would be poorest for the NW whereas the SE would have reasonable weather interspersed with occasional fronts

The 17th now seems to have firmed up as the point at which the tight clustering of fine weather breaks down into uncertainty. However to say that the weather will also break down at this stage seems premature. I would expect there will be at least a blip in the settled spell early next week, but beyond that it would be a brave person to call the rest of the month!

Apparently we are in for some sort of breakdown next week depending on which angle storm chris comes in a..t tho the south should stay warm/very warm/average temps.. with hopefully some rain. till then enjoy the up coming hot temps that  starts again from tomorrow. and enjoy the rest of the WORLD CUP.....ITS COMING HOME.

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