You know it’s #summer2018 when a cool down means maxes of 25C.

Over here, we came about as close as is possible to a hurricane landfall last October, as well as seeing deep snow and now a heat wave and drought. It really has been an incredible spell of weather.

You heat fans are living through the summer equivalent of February 1986. Enjoy it while it lasts!

(When the breakdown does inevitably come, you'll see the models all flip at more or less the same time, just as happens with winter cold spells. The ex-tropical storm might do it, but for now there's no real end in sight.)

Must admit Darren, last night was the first really uncomfortable night for sleeping, so if it drops off a few degrees but stays dry, I will be happy.

If the latest EC15 is anything to go by, then make the most of it. Certainly more encouraging for those looking for a bit of rain at least.  

Very true, but I'm liking the signals! 

With a more changeable blip likely after next weekend, the key question is whether we can enjoy a bit of rain for our parched lawns then reset back to dry and warm conditions for the end of the month and into August.

Nothing to suggest any changeable weather after mid month will be long-lasting 

[Hmmmmmmmmmmm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

So the models are now hinting at the first ex-tropical system moving into the North Atlantic next weekend. When you're already in a stunning pattern, they are the last thing you want. Let's just hope that ex-Chris in this case, will just bring a bit of welcome rain for the gardens and fires, and not do what ex-Bertha did in August 2014.

At the moment, it's all very uncertain...

IMO, we will only have a better idea of will probably happen from next weekend onwards once the models have properly got to grips with the behaviour of the ex-tropical storm and how it interacts with the jet stream, if it does that. It could be that we won't have a better idea of what happens here until the middle of the coming week or thenabouts. I have seen people comments in the past on numerous occasions that these ex-tropical features are notorious for causing the models problems, even the more reliable models.

Not a fan of the mean in winter or summer but on the 6z update it stays above 10C until 21/07. 

Some differences in the MetO +144 from the 00z:

00z:

12z:

12z GFS is largely high pressure dominated too. 

Excellent to see a most welcome change.

And...

...also hugely encouraging

GFS and ECM both look like they're setting up a hot/dry final ten ten day's of July! 

It would take some seriously unsettled weather now to make this summer anything other than an absolute classic. (IMBY).

That time I would be off due to moving house to Kent and with no rain in sight I would be seeing extreme dry landscape and perhaps bushes would die out more than in 1995 drought.  Truly amazing 2018 summer so far with long duration of settled pattern and nationwide too.  

I also now watching the current sea temps and it show clearly the warm sea temps of 17-19C in from Ireland south to SW toward Azores which align same position where the long HP shape sit non-stop.  Does it mean the HP prefer to sit on the warmer Atlantic sea temps zone compare to previous summers when it was colder and LP often formed.

https://www.seatemperature.org/

incredible. Bone dry here for two months would be quite something. I hate it, but more excuses to drink to help with sleep issues! Lol

i remember 95 well, scorched lawns and dusty footpaths over the downs... I was thinking of August 95 the other day and how similar this spell feels.

WRT sea temps I think you are onto something with the HP sitting over +anomaly temp zones. 

Long may this balmy treat continue. Heck... more people moan when it rains for endless days & nights- why can’t some people at least try to embrace it. It makes me wonder where they take their summer holidays. Or if they even have them at all!