There was a good stagnant block in July 13, after such a grim late winter. Has anyone considered the possibilities beyond the party line that a late winter SSW event could have a +ve feedback effect for later in the year? 1947 might be another example to investigate but I find sadly that continuous Start temps were not maintained until 1951. The protocul statement is that it can take from a few days to a few weeks to take place-
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming
which translated means to me the scientists have not fully understood the science involved (unsurprising giving the timescales of continuous measurement) and/or the effects are not predictable precisely. Either way, I would suggest there is a possibility of longer term effects if the SSW is significant enough to begin with; after all, the event sometimes produces little surface outcome eg in terms of winter cold; why not an enhanced outcome on other occasions?
Physicists (I am not one): can systems be perpetuated longer than expected because of their +ve feedbacks and deviations from expected?
Someone do a correlation of late winter SSWs of any magnitude, and anomalous blocking patterns (ie not the Atlantic N-S aligned high to our west). It's got to be worth it- can't be any forgettable than the OPI surely?
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.