Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 08:59 on Mon 2 Jul 2018

There is a 90 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Monday and 2100 on Tuesday in parts of England.

The general trend in temperatures this week is for early high temperatures by both day and night in the southern two regions of England (Southeast and Southwest), with slightly less certainty for London and West Midlands. This follows a hot Sunday and Sunday night across the majority of these areas. Temperatures should fall slightly during Tuesday by both day and night for most, curtailing this alert. While temperatures are expected to pare back slightly by both night and day through the middle of the week, later in the week the easterly breeze that has been providing some relief in eastern counties is expected to die away, leading to a notable change in the feel of temperatures here, even if absolute thresholds are not quite breached. Yorkshire/Humber, East Midlands and East of England are most likely to see their current alert level change (probably upwards to a level 2) as a consequence. Even in areas that do not breach their alert criteria, the headline is that is expected to remain largely dry and often sunny - for this week at least.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth 

UK Outlook for Monday 9 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 18 Jul 2018:

Monday and Tuesday look dry and sunny for most, with any overnight mist clearing quickly. There is a risk of cloudier and breezier conditions with some rain in the far north and northwest, whilst the east may have more cloud at times. From mid-week onwards the largely dry, settled and very warm conditions are likely to continue, although isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible in the south and southwest. Meanwhile the far north and northwest may be cloudier and breezy at times with a little rain. Temperatures generally very warm and occasionally hot in central and southern areas, but closer to normal in the far northwest. Towards the end of this period there may be change to more unsettled conditions particularly in the north and northwest.

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Jul 2018 to Thursday 2 Aug 2018:

For the last third of July it looks as though fine weather will probably dominate across the bulk of UK, with mostly dry, sunny and warm conditions, especially in the south. However, there are likely to be interludes of more unsettled weather, when weather fronts arrive from the west and northwest, or when thundery showers spread from the south. There are very tentative signs that there may some more generally unsettled weather conditions into the start of August. Temperatures overall are likely to be well above average, with some further very warm or hot spells possible, but with temperatures returning nearer to average at times in any more changeable spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

First major change of wording for several days.....Breakdown may come sooner than hoped, but looks like this is ublikely with August being a long way off.

Largely dry, with plenty of sunny spells. Hot at first, but gradually turning cooler from the north and east, with generally more in the way of cloud around.

Updated: 02:20 on Sat 7 Jul 2018 BST

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 11 Jul 2018 to Friday 20 Jul 2018:

Wednesday and Thursday will generally see sunny spells and a chance of a shower. Cloudier in the far north with a little rain or drizzle possible. Temperatures will be nearer to normal in the far north but probably still very warm in the south and west. Thereafter conditions are probably going to gradually turn more changeable and somewhat cooler. There will likely be an increasing chance of showers, possibly thundery in the south, and bands of cloud and rain are likely from the northwest, weakening as they move southeastwards. There will still be some fine and sunny weather, most likely in the southeast. It will be breezier, especially in the northwest where temperatures will be near average, but still warm or very warm at times in the south and southeast.

UK Outlook for Saturday 21 Jul 2018 to Saturday 4 Aug 2018:

Changeable conditions are set to continue through the start of this period with further spells of rain likely, especially in the north and northwest. However, there is low confidence in how long these conditions will last. Some further spells of fine, settled weather will probably return later in the month for many areas, although further spells of rain are possible arriving from the northwest with showers or thunderstorms possible in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for many with further very warm spells possible, most likely in the south. Temperatures will be closer to average in any unsettled spells, these most likely in the north and northwest.

Updated: 02:20 on Sat 7 Jul 2018 BST

Met Office quite bullish about a breakdown of sorts now, albeit to more of a NW/SE split, so still pretty decent for many.

KILLER HEATWAVE: 54 dead as record-breaking temperatures rip through North America

A RECORD-breaking heatwave has killed 54 people in eastern Canada as scorching temperatures continue to grip North America. 24 of those who died were men over the age of 50 and lived in the upper floors of apartments that have no air-conditioning, said Dr David Kaiser of Montreal’s Regional Public Health Department. Montreal in Quebec saw temperatures climb to 45C (113F) with humidity as eighteen people died in the city.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/985270/heatwave-canada-north-america-death-toll-latest-forecast

UK on brink of first hosepipe ban since 2012 as Britain sizzles in 33C heatwave

BRITAIN is on the verge of a hosepipe ban with temperatures continuing to soar as the summer heatwave intensifies with forecasters predicting a prolonged dry spell.

Water companies are urging customers to voluntarily curb their use to prevent any potential compulsory restrictions. United Utilities, which serves the North West, said it "urgently needed help and support" from its three million customers to stop a ban from being imposed. The region has not had rain for three weeks, leading to plunging reservoir levels, and the company said it will have no choice but to enforce a ban if water demand does not fall soon.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/985305/uk-hosepipe-ban-heatwave-uk-weather-forecast-long-hot-summer-1976