LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

Shows I think, just how difficult this one looks to call atm

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LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

Shows I think, just how difficult this one looks to call atm

I agree Jon. It might be my memory playing tricks but I am sure last year's chart were more consistent.

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Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be cold for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a mild ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a cold winter but there we go that is just imo!

 

 

As to the "Fact" if someone consistently and repeatedly responds to anything remotely mild or dry by going 

And then repeatedly (ad nauseum) questioning anything which looks remotely cold (and I admit the Madden/Express point was fair, but I got it after the first post), then I may just may draw a conclusion about which direction he's going in. 

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif 

Up and Up we go. The rest of November and most of winter, a weaker la nina than last year. I know the link above is not everything, but it is encouraging to see. The blue runs are new forecast members.

Gavin P, was SPOT ON with the ever weakening la nina. If we can trust this, then maybe this is why the models are starting to slip back into the blocking territory. There is definitely signs. With the predicted weakening La nina, it bodes well for colder than average weather. It adds up, because the chart above shows November/december onwards to be around -1 to -1.5 which is weak.

I don't know how true it is, but someone mentioned that there is a major stratospheric warming coming up as well.

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

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I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Weather Onlines take for the end of Autumn and into December

Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011

Settled mid-November

'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885)

There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.

The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.

The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.

Full outlook for the first 3 weeks of December can be found here

 

Third gritter in 2 nights.

Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011

Settled mid-November

'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885)

There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.

The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.

The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.

Full outlook for the first 3 weeks of December can be found here

 

Looks as though WEATHERONLINE are forecasting another wintry run up to Christmas - For third year running.

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Yes, it is important to name the person/organisation's work your copying not just link it, out of respect and also, for the ease of the reader.

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I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

The post was meant to be a joke. However, OK, I will try to refrain from the subtle humour / stupid comments

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Blimey, that's harsh!  I thought this particular thread had a bit more leeway than the MO thread for humour etc!

I don't think a lot of people *get* YD's humour!

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I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Blimey, that's harsh!  I thought this particular thread had a bit more leeway than the MO thread for humour etc!

I don't think a lot of people *get* YD's humour!

Keep to the climate thread YD, winter propects brings the worst out in some. 

Back on topic....

I had a look at weatherunderground for the weather history in west yorkshire for 2009/2010, that year had similarly *mild* november conditions at this time and the run up to december and we all know what happened few days before x-mas ;-)

If the same comes off this year we will get persistant cold through to Feb...

GP on Netweather has added another post, well worth a read as alway's

This is not too far removed from last November's pattern except that the mean ridge is placed much further east this time and we are stuck on the 'wrong' side for cold.

Remembering also that the polar stratosphere is running anomalously cold right now, and the likely migration of the polar vortex towards the Canadian Arctic during December.

So in summary, the very strong mountain torque event and consequent sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum definately spices things up in the medium term, although I suspect the default troughing to our west and the developing ridge over Scandinavia will not be far off a return in December as the main feature of our weather.

Full post and pictures here

GP on Netweather has added another post, well worth a read as alway's

This is not too far removed from last November's pattern except that the mean ridge is placed much further east this time and we are stuck on the 'wrong' side for cold.

Remembering also that the polar stratosphere is running anomalously cold right now, and the likely migration of the polar vortex towards the Canadian Arctic during December.

So in summary, the very strong mountain torque event and consequent sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum definately spices things up in the medium term, although I suspect the default troughing to our west and the developing ridge over Scandinavia will not be far off a return in December as the main feature of our weather.

Full post and pictures here

Exactly

Anyway, no sign of the Arctic Foxes coming down from the Herriard Pass yet so no sign of winter as far as nature is concerned

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

The CFS pressure charts look terrible for cold at the moment... but fear not, I've seen them hastily adding a bit of northern blocking at the last minute several times this year (particularly during the summer )

 

There is an interesting post on Netweather (from Lorenzo) that points out how NAO is dropping rapidly in the recent ESRL/PSD ensemble model output. Then he writes that our current MJO state, if extrapoloted (a dangerous game, assuming similar trends to times past), places us in a 2010 run of events only starting a month later on.

 

Perhaps January will be record breakingly cold

Yeah, we can all dream... its just a possibility, as are so many things in this world, like me owning a koenigsegg Agera R

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GP on Netweather has added another post, well worth a read as alway's

This is not too far removed from last November's pattern except that the mean ridge is placed much further east this time and we are stuck on the 'wrong' side for cold.

Remembering also that the polar stratosphere is running anomalously cold right now, and the likely migration of the polar vortex towards the Canadian Arctic during December.

So in summary, the very strong mountain torque event and consequent sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum definately spices things up in the medium term, although I suspect the default troughing to our west and the developing ridge over Scandinavia will not be far off a return in December as the main feature of our weather.

Full post and pictures here

 

GP certainly know's his stuff but his summer predictions were way off the mark especially for July, IIRC.