No hint of snow even for high ground from the met office so maybe the ECM 32 day model is not showing enough hints of a pattern change yet to convince the met office.

The Met 30 dayer does talk about things turning cooler late in the month - But only cooling down to average. They are playing it safe as you would expect given we're probably two or three weeks away from any change.

If ECM is still showing a big switch late in the month next Friday, I would would expect a more interesting update.

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Hopefully any cold 'snap' this November won't be as 'severe' as last November, because I don't want winter to end in late January again.

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Hopefully any cold 'snap' this November won't be as 'severe' as last November, because I don't want winter to end in late January again.

I hope it will be more severe and continue until February.

As for the period up to Christmas, there would be some who would say it couldn't be exactly like last year again. I agree. That's why I'm hoping for it to be colder

Having had the second coldest November week and second coldest December CET, it would be good to go one better on both of those counts this year

Hopefully any cold 'snap' this November won't be as 'severe' as last November, because I don't want winter to end in late January again.

I hope it will be more severe and continue until February.

As for the period up to Christmas, there would be some who would say it couldn't be exactly like last year again. I agree. That's why I'm hoping for it to be colder

Having had the second coldest November week and second coldest December CET, it would be good to go one better on both of those counts this year

Pie in the sky I imagine, but boy do I wish

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Will Hand over on UK Sci has posted that Exeter have hinted at a Major Strat warming event, he didnt say when but that may help with a pattern change

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Will Hand over on UK Sci has posted that Exeter have hinted at a Major Strat warming event, he didnt say when but that may help with a pattern change

Yes, so the indications are now for a severe cold spell in the near future

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

 

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)

Christmas Forecast 2011

Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png

 

They are just gimics. They mean nothing. 

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Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)

Christmas Forecast 2011

Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png

 

They have a lot of front, on that page.

They have a lot of front, on that page.

I trust it's a cold front.

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Seems to be a bit of an unhelpful spin placed on the chart, but that doesn't surprise me.

That chart shows a perfectly average anomaly for winter. So could be a little on the cold side could be on the mild side. Could be very cold in part of the month could be very mild in another.

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

 

whatever they end up showing the opposit always seems to happen

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)

Christmas Forecast 2011

Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png

 

TWO Have one also...

And North and South currently 27%

 http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Me & Gusty go with 10% Chance for SE at present

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Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Thanks for the breaking news on all mild related matters.

Pint of mild anyone?

*rolls eyes smiley*

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Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be mild for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a cold ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a mild winter but there we go that is just imo!

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be mild for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a cold ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a mild winter but there we go that is just imo!

 Calm down!  It's only a model output

Gavin was simply pointing out that they do not show the cold they were showing this time last year.   Fact.   He has no expressed any opinion on whether he would like it to prove correct or not. 

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Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

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Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be cold for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a mild ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a cold winter but there we go that is just imo!

 

 

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LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

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