You are also getting confused by two separate areas close by. One was a moderate chance that ultimately failed to materialise and the other became Martin. At one time both areas were visible on the NHC main page.

I'm sorry but I am not getting confused at all. Look at the list I've given, cross check it with the archives, look at the coordinates and you will see that the areas of disturbance are the same. With respect to Lisa and its potential of crossing into the Bay of Campeche there was one mention in one of the discussions that a minority of perturbation on a small number of models were showing such an event, but they were minded to dismiss those as being incorrect. It turns out that they were the correct in the end.

If I were just making this comment on those two events I could understand the defence which you seem determined to make for the NHC's forecast skill.

However, I have mentioned that those were just two instances from this season. There are others that have similiarly failed to verify during this period.

If i were a ship Captain in that area I would not be too happy at being told in consecutive forecasts that the chances of development were unlikely and continuing to decraes only to find within hours the potential increasing to 70% and thenfinding a T/S has formed which later becomes a Hurricane.

For me and many others this is just a point of discussion. To some an accurtae and timely forecast is life and death.

I suspect you will come back to argue the point, but for me I'll leave it at that.

 

I'm sorry but I am not getting confused at all. Look at the list I've given, cross check it with the archives, look at the coordinates and you will see that the areas of disturbance are the same. With respect to Lisa and its potential of crossing into the Bay of Campeche there was one mention in one of the discussions that a minority of perturbation on a small number of models were showing such an event, but they were minded to dismiss those as being incorrect. It turns out that they were the correct in the end.

If I were just making this comment on those two events I could understand the defence which you seem determined to make for the NHC's forecast skill.

However, I have mentioned that those were just two instances from this season. There are others that have similiarly failed to verify during this period.

If i were a ship Captain in that area I would not be too happy at being told in consecutive forecasts that the chances of development were unlikely and continuing to decraes only to find within hours the potential increasing to 70% and thenfinding a T/S has formed which later becomes a Hurricane.

For me and many others this is just a point of discussion. To some an accurtae and timely forecast is life and death.

I suspect you will come back to argue the point, but for me I'll leave it at that.

 

 

 

So the red area failed in the end to materialise

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?basin=atl&fdays=5&current_issuance=202210242336

As you can see a day late it had weakened but another area to its south had begun to develop. This is the area that would later become Martin.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?basin=atl&fdays=5&current_issuance=202210252338

I don't need to argue as that facts are that - facts. If you choose not to accept that you had missed them then that is up to you. 

A couple of disturbances with 70-90% prospects currently in mid to W part of Atlantic - late for this sort of development.

Detailed analysis here https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/11/flooding-heavy-rains-to-sock-the-bahamas-and-florida-this-week/ 

A couple of disturbances with 70-90% prospects currently in mid to W part of Atlantic - late for this sort of development

Yes, it’s quite late in the season now, but as you know, the official season runs through to November 30.

One of those two is predicted to head NE and will be picked up by the prevailing west-east flow. The more southerly one is forecast to head in a broadly westerly direction, keeping it over warmer water. I think that’s the one to keep an eye on.

The more SW-ly of the two disturbances is now TS Nicole heading for the Bahamas, and may briefly become a hurricane before reverting to TS and roughing up Florida and Georgia.

The other appears to be dying in mid-Atlantic.

The more SW-ly of the two disturbances is now TS Nicole heading for the Bahamas, and may briefly become a hurricane before reverting to TS and roughing up Florida and Georgia.

The other appears to be dying in mid-Atlantic.

Reposting here....

Update:Hurricane Nicole:
"Nicole has already lashed the Bahamas as a huge category one hurricane, and caused widespread flooding. Storms of this size so late in the year are extremely rare."

Power outages as rare November storm hits Florida
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63499056

Roger