Thanks K lol  

I am hoping for a belter this time around - nothing scientific , we are due a cracker 

Global warming is moving the goalposts though. I fear the best we can hope for, down here anyway, is transient cold spells which  deliver about as much punch as a teetotallers party.

Global warming is moving the goalposts though. I fear the best we can hope for, down here anyway, is transient cold spells which  deliver about as much punch as a teetotallers party.

How did the south do in winter 2009/10 and December 2010, just out of interest?

 

How did the south do in winter 2009/10 and December 2010, just out of interest?

And 2013 and 2018 both extending into March 

 

And 2013 and 2018 both extending into March 

And even just last January was cold with several snowfalls here, but people expect the Winter of 62-63 every year.

 

How did the south do in winter 2009/10 and December 2010, just out of interest?

2009/10 brought several periods of snow to southern England, although when I looked through the records last week I was surprised by how much milder the D/J/F CET was compared to 1978/79. Dec 2010 is well documented as being very (anomalously) cold, but in terms of snow it wasn't really notable here. We had one fall which was comparable to the December 2017 one. 

New Gfs trending to a very flat zonal pattern so far...hope this isn't going to be the theme....huge flat highs that are very hard to budge.......

 

How did the south do in winter 2009/10 and December 2010, just out of interest?

Snow on the Downs Dec 09 but not on the coast; about 2 or 3 inches in Jan 10 at low level; Dec 2010 about 5 inches which lasted all of 4 days before thawing and then no more that winter

Same latitude as Chichester, but further west, five miles south of Taunton. January 2010:

Can't complain about that. Nor about Christmas Eve 2010:

But this is what I'm interested in right now - November 2005. Because 2005 has been miles clear in the analogue index for three days in a row now. And November 2005 was one of the great disruptive snow events in Somerset, and even more so in Devon and Cornwall. But completely overlooked both at the time and subsequently:

It always annoys me when people suggest that real snow is now impossible in November in southern England. Just tell that to the hundreds of motorists stranded overnight outside Exeter, and the Cornwall residents relying on airlifts that month.

Summary chart - still mild across Europe week 1 then seasonal cooling week 2 with some seriously cold air in the far NE beginning to show. Rain for western coasts i week 1 spreading irregularly into Europe week 2

Jet - continues to be active around the UK in various configurations for the next two weeks. Maybe easing up at the end

GFS - current Atlantic LP bringing mild SW-ly moves E next weekend trailing a trough across Uk which deepens Mon 1st 970mb N Sea hanging around for a couple of days before zonal flow sets in. Then Mon 8th Lp develops near Iceland and moves SE to S Norway bringing NW-lies.

GEFS - Mild/v mild spell Thu/FRi 28/29th, then a few days of quite heavy rain followed by a prolonged cool/cold spell (esp Thu 4th, 6C below norm) and still quite damp

ECM (mostly 12z  as available at 0700) like GFS but more of a trough than an LP centre in N Sea Mon 1st EDIT 0z now (0815) online; ECM falls in behind GFS and shows LP centred N Sea 980mb Mon 1st, but moving E quite quickly

I expect the CPF to be publicly available very soon.

New Gfs trending to a very flat zonal pattern so far...hope this isn't going to be the theme....huge flat highs that are very hard to budge.......

The Euroslug is hard to shift. Pattern looks locked in for a while, save on heating I suppose

 

The Euroslug is hard to shift. Pattern looks locked in for a while, save on heating I suppose

 

 

The Euroslug is hard to shift. Pattern looks locked in for a while, save on heating I suppose

 

I think it was Paul Bartlett who suggested the Euroslug had become more of a feature of the UK's weather during recent decades. Anecdotally that would certainly appear to be the case. 

Mild mid week then a decline to cooler more seasonal conditions as we enter November 

 

I think it was Paul Bartlett who suggested the Euroslug had become more of a feature of the UK's weather during recent decades. Anecdotally that would certainly appear to be the case. 

I seem to recall discussion in the past about whether this is linked to the climate change induced poleward shift of the high pressure belt?

CPF is now publicly available:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1secure.pdf

CPF is now publicly available:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1secure.pdf

 

Regardless of whether they get it right or not that makes for a very interesting read. Lots of lovely statistics - I particularly like the 5 year map series.