Wrt the Met Office see the Tweets below.

Potential impacts of the developing #LaNina and an E #QBO on our #weather in the months ahead...https://t.co/99PPgVexG5

— Marco Petagna (@Petagna) October 21, 2021

So that is typical Met Office and two mins of my life gone. Covers all bases. Early colder, later milder. But also colder later 

Wx summary like yesterday  temps across most of Europe i.e. mild Atlantic and slightly above seasonal average  but cooler to N/NE , seriously colder weather is moving from Scandi to far NE Europe in week 2 less extensive than previously shown. Rain for W UK and Baltic week 1 moving to mist of UK and France and on to N Germany week 2

jat more co-ordinated than yesterday; altough not doing much at first, arises strongly near N Scotland Wed 27th, moving S-wards to S England by Sun 31st and N France Sat 6th

GFS - LP mid-Atlantic and HP over France maintaining SW=ly flow to Sun 31st (LP close to NW Scotland at times) then LP traverses Scotland to N Sea 965mb leaving a sequence of troughs and shallow LPs behind it e.g. Thu 4th 985mb Holland finally clearing up Sun 7th (but another LP waiting on Atlantic)

GEFS - becoming mild with the SW-lies around Fri 29th then lots of scatter but mostly near norm. A little damp to 29th then increasing amounts of rain without breaks particularly heavy in the S

ECM - similar to GFS to Sun 31st though the LP noted then is slower to approach and not as deep (985mb Hebrides Mon 1st rather than N Sea a day earlier)

 

So that is typical Met Office and two mins of my life gone. Covers all bases. Early colder, later milder. But also colder later 

It might be worth checking out the stats sometime, but I think that article wildly overstates the influence of 'La Nina' on weather patterns in greater NE Atlantic region. 

Posts re Arctic sea ice moved to existing dedicated thread

WX summary temps close to and indeed mostly a little above seasonal norm for Europe but of course that implies a general cooling down, beginning to be noticeable on Atlantic fringes. The area beyond the Urals though cold is still well above norm. Rain for western edge of Europe weeks 1 & 2 (includes UK) and in week 2 spreading down through France to Alps. Less wet in Baltic than previously.

Jet - the jet forecast varies from day to day. It's similar to yesterday with the jet  affecting N Britain from Tue 26th moving to S Britain Sun 30th and mostly staying there, but with much more meandering than yesterday's indication of a straight flow.

GFS op - Atlantic LP dominating this week with W/SW flow across Uk (HP over France less prominent than yesterday) but moves across Scotland suddenly deepening to be 950mb Shetland Sun 31st. A follow-on but shallower trough persists in the N Sea to Thu 4th, after which a rather ill-defined zonal pattern

GEFS - mostly dry to Fri 29th (a day or two earlier in Scotland) and indeed warm later on in that period, then rain setting in without much if any breaks ( drier but not completely soat end of run in Scotlland), and looking cool from Thu 4th.

ECM - like GFS but that deep depression is much much shallower - 985 mb Mon 1st off S Norway

Could be a record breaking warm start to November if this came off @ +222: - Look at those uppers.

Atlantic looking increasingly blocked by a potential mid Atlantic high early November. Whether this high becomes the SW High spoiler for the UK while Scandinavia goes into the freezer remains to be seen....

Atlantic looking increasingly blocked by a potential mid Atlantic high early November. Whether this high becomes the SW High spoiler for the UK while Scandinavia goes into the freezer remains to be seen....

Certainly a cooler looking start to November in the charts ATM - last few months have been alternating cooler/milder so wouldn't break the pattern if November was on the cool side. 

Be interesting to see how wet it turns out too - locally October has been pretty damp, albeit rain days haven't been that noticeable it's just been the intensity of the rain when it has fallen.

As yesterday WX summary temps close to and indeed mostly a little above seasonal norm for Europe but of course that implies a general cooling down, beginning to be noticeable on Atlantic fringes. However N/NE Europe gets a little milder in week 2. Rain for western edge of Europe weeks 1 & 2 (includes UK) and in week 2 spreading down through France to Alps. Less wet than previously and looking patchy.

Jet much as yesterday, affecting first N Britain and moving S, more inclined to form loops perhaps; decline in activity around Sun 7th

GFS for the coming week a SW flow dictated by Lp on Atlantic which moves across UK Sun 31st (less dramatically than yesterday) to be 975 mb Orkney. New LP 975mb Iceland Thu 4th producing NW-lies as it moves to Sweden by Sat 6th and then NE-lies as HP develops Faeroes Tue 9th

GEFS mostly dry and mild to Fri 29th then a week with quite a lot of rain esp in S decreasing later, and temps steadily declining to 2 or 3 C below seasonal norm through to Tue 9th

ECM similar to GFS though LP on Sun 31st more flabby and further N (as ECM showed yesterday) It still brings in NW-lies , enhanced by local extra depression E Anglia 990 mb Wed 3rd

The cold regime late in 1st week of November is well supported, still this morning.

Winds from a north easterly quarter possible. 

Take note everyone - it will be -26c on 23rd November in the Netherlands:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=8&summary=y

As has been mentioned , signs of something chillier en route 

As has been mentioned , signs of something chillier en route