Met Office 7 minutes of forecast of how it is getting lot colder from weekend

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1377325477338222593?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Those 7 minute forecasts are so much better with room to breath and mention things that no TV forecast would ever. Reminds me of the US weather where it can run for several minutes

I think he  has underestimated shower chances inland. Its not a mid January northerly, at this time of the year I would have convection inland would kick off. Seen that was previous April northerly flows. 

I think he  has underestimated shower chances inland. Its not a mid January northerly, at this time of the year I would have convection inland would kick off. Seen that was previous April northerly flows. 

That's what I would have thought as well and as I'm in a nit-picking mode, the pic of the primulas which are hardy was not perhaps the best choice for a tender plant. But then who would have planted out tender bedding plants at this stage anyway? I guess there's a few as when I was in the trade,  garden centres loved it when people had to return to replace stuff that had been frosted. "Ne'er cast a clout till May is out" is as good today as ever to remember.

Tuesday 6 Apr - Thursday 15 Apr

Cold and unsettled to start this period, particularly at first, when snow and hail showers are likely just about anywhere. The north, west and eastern coastal areas seeing the most frequent and heavy showers on Tuesday. Some strong winds also developing for a time accentuating the cold feel. This general picture continues into much of April, with showers most frequent around the north and east. Any snow will most likely be restricted to higher ground of the north later. Towards the end of this period, however, mixed weather patterns begin to evolve meaning that although showers and longer spells of rain are still probable, some drier interludes are also likely. Temperatures are also likely to return to around average.

Thursday 15 Apr - Thursday 29 Apr

During the latter part of April, temperatures likely recovering back to around average. Towards the end of the month there are signs that high pressure will become less dominant again with the potential for more unsettled and changeable conditions to develop, especially across northwestern areas. Further southeast, drier and more settled conditions look likely to continue dominating.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

There is now a weather warning out for snow from Sunday evening until the end of Monday for parts of Scotland:

“ A very cold northerly airflow will become established across the UK through Sunday night and Monday morning. Very strong north to northwest winds will spread hail and snow showers inland across many areas, but the most frequent showers will affect northern Scotland. Here, 2-5cm may accumulate at low levels away from north-facing coasts, with 5-10cm above 150m, and 15cm possible on highest ground above 300m. The strong winds will cause drifting of lying snow, and blizzard conditions at times on higher ground.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-04-04&id=4c428617-42ab-47db-884d-79c13ae2f311&details 

Wednesday 7 Apr - Friday 16 Apr

Towards the start of this period we will see a shift from the recent warm and settled weather, with conditions turning wintry and colder for all. A mixture of sunny spells and showers remains likely at first, though cold conditions mean that some of these outbreaks will have some wintriness to them, especially in the north. Furthermore, strong winds are expected for some areas at first, particularly towards northern regions, though easing later. After this, conditions are likely to turn drier, starting in the west. Temperatures look to be largely below average for this time of year, with notable overnight frosts developing throughout. There is a possibility that temperatures will lift nearer to average later.

Friday 16 Apr - Friday 30 Apr

There is low confidence for this period, with current indications of a mixed, slowly evolving change in weather likely through the middle of the month. There is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall at this time. Showers or more persistent spells of rain remain likely throughout, but some drier interludes remain possible. Temperatures may vary around average for this time of year. Towards the end of April, and into early May, confidence is very low, with no strong indication as to any particular weather type. The typical scenario for this period is for the most unsettled weather to affect the northwest of the UK, with the southeast seeing the driest conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 9 Apr - Sunday 18 Apr

A period of less cold and more settled conditions will once again give way to another very cold and wintry picture, especially for northern areas. Uncertainty remains in how far south this very cold air will extended. Within this a mixture of sunny spells and showers remains likely. Some of these outbreaks may be wintry, especially in the north. Furthermore, strong winds are expected for norther parts at first, though easing later. After this, conditions are likely to turn drier and more settled for most, with greatest likelihood of unsettled spells in the NW. Temperatures look to be largely below average for this time of year, with notable overnight frosts developing throughout. There is a possibility that temperatures will lift nearer to or slightly above average later in the period.

Sunday 18 Apr - Sunday 2 May

There is low confidence for this period, with current indications of a mixed, slowly evolving change in weather likely through the middle of the month. There is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall at this time. Showers or more persistent spells of rain remain likely throughout, but some drier interludes remain possible. Temperatures may vary around average for this time of year. Towards the end of April, and into early May, confidence is very low, with no strong indication as to any particular weather type. The typical scenario for this period is for the most unsettled weather to affect the northwest of the UK, with the southeast seeing the driest conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 9 Apr - Sunday 18 Apr

A period of less cold and more settled conditions will once again give way to another very cold and wintry picture, especially for northern areas. Uncertainty remains in how far south this very cold air will extended. Within this a mixture of sunny spells and showers remains likely. Some of these outbreaks may be wintry, especially in the north. Furthermore, strong winds are expected for norther parts at first, though easing later. After this, conditions are likely to turn drier and more settled for most, with greatest likelihood of unsettled spells in the NW. Temperatures look to be largely below average for this time of year, with notable overnight frosts developing throughout. There is a possibility that temperatures will lift nearer to or slightly above average later in the period.

Sunday 18 Apr - Sunday 2 May

There is low confidence for this period, with current indications of a mixed, slowly evolving change in weather likely through the middle of the month. There is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall at this time. Showers or more persistent spells of rain remain likely throughout, but some drier interludes remain possible. Temperatures may vary around average for this time of year. Towards the end of April, and into early May, confidence is very low, with no strong indication as to any particular weather type. The typical scenario for this period is for the most unsettled weather to affect the northwest of the UK, with the southeast seeing the driest conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

An absolutely pointless effort from UKMO. Seriously, why bother? Just say "we haven't a clue" and be done with it. That last paragraph is laughable, just telling us what the typical weather for the time of year is. Complete waste of 2 minutes of my life reading that rubbish.

Yes indeed. Towards the end of the monthly forecast it always seems rather vague and tending toward climatic norms by the very nature of what they are dealing with but that one does seem worse than normal. They have pretty much said that we will have some weather in late April/early May but I'm not sure they are 100% convinced of even that....

Saturday 10 Apr - Monday 19 Apr

The start of the period is looking very cold and wintry, especially for northern areas. Uncertainty remains in how far south this very cold air will extended. Within this a mixture of sunny spells and showers remains likely. Some of these outbreaks may be wintry, especially in the north. Furthermore, strong winds are expected for northern parts at first, though easing later. After this, conditions are likely to turn drier and more settled for most, with the greatest likelihood of unsettled spells in the northwest. Temperatures look to be largely below average for this time of year, with notable overnight frosts developing throughout. There is a possibility that temperatures will lift nearer to or slightly above average later in the period.

Monday 19 Apr - Monday 3 May

There is low confidence for this period, with current indications of a mixed, slowly evolving change in weather likely through the middle of the month. There is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall at this time. Showers or more persistent spells of rain remain likely throughout, but some drier interludes remain possible. Temperatures may vary around average for this time of year. Towards the end of April, and into early May, confidence is very low, with no strong indication as to any particular weather type. The typical scenario for this period is for the most unsettled weather to affect the northwest of the UK, with the southeast seeing the driest conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 12 Apr - Wednesday 21 Apr

Changeable conditions are expected for most areas early in this period. A mixture of sunny spells and showers for most parts of the country. The west and northwest have the greatest chance of seeing any spells of more prolonged rain and stronger winds. Temperatures likely still below average at first, slowly recovering back to closer to average. Confidence becomes low in the prevailing weather patterns during mid-April. There are most likely to be further spells of unsettled weather with some showers or longer spells of rain crossing all parts of the UK. This will be interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below average for this time of year by the end of the period.

Wednesday 21 Apr - Wednesday 5 May

Confidence remains low by during the latter part of April and into early May. Most unsettled conditions are likely to affect the northern and the western parts of the UK with drier weather and more settled conditions expected for the south and east. Temperatures probably remaining around average during the end of April but with an increased chance of some warmer spells into early May.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold outlook with changeable weather.

_________________________________

Wednesday 7 April – Sunday 11 April

Cold returning by the end of the week.

Nobody really needs reminding that the Easter period saw a big change in the weather. Cold north-westerly winds brought snow showers, with temperatures dropping well below normal everywhere. A weak and transient ridge of high pressure will bring drier conditions for a while on Wednesday. Winds will back more westerly, so it will become less cold for Thursday, although not warm by any means.

Bands of rain will slowly move across the UK from the northwest as a low pressure system passes just north of Scotland. There will be stronger winds for a while, especially across Scotland and Northern Ireland. The front will weaken as it moves farther southeast, and the south of the country could stay dry and fair for longer. But there will be some rain on Friday. Behind this front there will be colder air returning, and that will cause snow showers to come back to northern Scotland and Northern Ireland during Friday and Saturday.

Some of the snow will drift southwards into southern Scotland and northern parts of England and Wales, although these should be few and far between. However, the cold air might not get all the way south, and southern England should be less cold with a little rain possible at times. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week with north to north-easterly winds. There will be showers scattered around, mostly rain across South Wales and central and southern England. There will also be sleet and snow for North Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Southeast England could see some more persistent rain lingering, thanks to the proximity of a low pressure system sliding from northern France through the Low Countries to northern Germany.

Monday 12 April – Sunday 18 April

Becoming less cold but still unsettled.

Unusually cold air will linger into start of next week, with low pressure to the north and northeast bringing in Arctic air. Southern areas will be less cold with respect to average than the north. It will remain unsettled, with scattered showers of sleet and snow, most of them in northern and eastern regions. Isolated flurries will be possible almost anywhere. Some showers will mix with rain, though, especially in the east and south.

The brisk and cold winds will ease, as we head into the second half of next week. Temperatures will be nothing to write home about, though, staying just below average, or near normal at best. Low pressure will move farther way to the northeast and a high pressure ridge looks like it could develop, extending northwards from France. This should bring some drier conditions for a while, with chances that it will grow into a somewhat stronger area of high pressure over the UK by the end of the week. This would steer low pressure systems away, bringing calmer and drier conditions by the end of next week.

It would stay a bit chilly, though. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on this and the model guidance is split with a large divergence. Some ensemble forecasts support this scenario while others paint a very different picture, showing a developing low pressure system moving in from the southwest. That would bring rain right across the country with stronger winds but also milder air, and this has about a 35% chance of being realised.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 2 May

Settled for a while then changeable later.

The latter part of April most likely starts with high pressure lingering and producing a rather quiet spell of weather. It should be cool for the time of year, or even chilly, but not close to being as cold as the first half of April. It will also be dry for much of the time with relatively light winds in most areas and some sunshine, although overnight fog will be a risk. This high pressure should block the path of any low pressure systems and tend to steer them more towards the Arctic, although trailing fronts might just bring some rain to Scotland at times.

Meanwhile, low pressure could also develop towards Spain and the western Mediterranean, and perhaps nudge northwards across France. This might cause some rain to move towards southern parts of the UK now and then. Later in April, however, it looks like the high will be on the move, most likely drifting westwards into the Atlantic. This will also bring the return of low pressure systems and more unsettled weather by the end of April and into early May. There should be some warmer periods, but most likely only lasting two or three days, with very variable temperatures, and cooler-than-normal conditions otherwise. Confidence is low, though, with continuing disagreement between models and with statistical forecasts.

An alternate scenario would be for high pressure to shift eastwards into mainland Europe rather than westwards, opening the door to Atlantic low pressure systems. These would bring much wetter and windier weather. There will also be milder conditions with winds more likely to come from the south and southwest. This has about a 30% chance of developing.

Further ahead

There should be a little more clarity on next week's developments - high pressure developing as expected, or will it be wiped out but a developing Atlantic low? And what about the later month? Which way will the expected high pressure shift?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 13 Apr - Thursday 22 Apr

Changeable conditions are expected for most areas early in this period with a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most parts of the country. The west and northwest have the greatest chance of seeing any spells of more prolonged rain and stronger winds. Temperatures likely still below average at first, slowly recovering back to closer to average. Confidence then becomes low in the prevailing weather patterns during mid-April. There are most likely to be further spells of unsettled weather with some showers or longer spells of rain crossing all parts of the UK. This will be interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below average for this time of year by the end of the period.

Thursday 22 Apr - Thursday 6 May

Confidence remains low by the latter part of April and into early May. Most unsettled conditions are likely to affect northern and western parts of the UK with drier weather and more settled conditions expected for the south and east. Temperatures will probably remain around average during the end of April but with an increased chance of some warmer spells into early May.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 14 Apr - Friday 23 Apr

The most likely scenario for the start of this period is for mainly settled conditions to be in place across the country. Unsettled conditions with rain showers may spread erratically from the west through the weekend. The heaviest and most prolonged rain as well as the strongest winds, are most likely for western and north-western areas, with eastern areas likely remaining drier and brighter. Temperatures will likely remain at or slightly below average at first, before recovering to potentially slightly above average for a time over the weekend. Confidence decreases after this, however towards the end of this period it will likely be turning less unsettled with more dry and bright interludes. Generally, it is expected to feel rather warm, although temperatures could be supressed in wetter areas.

Friday 23 Apr - Friday 7 May

Confidence remains low for this period, however, mixed and slowly evolving weather patterns, typical of spring, are most likely through the late-April into May. Fine and dry weather is likely to be more prevalent overall, especially during late-April, with this signal waning during May, although all areas are likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures probably close to average with some warmer spells are possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cold easing with a changeable pattern expected.

_________________________________

Saturday 10 April – Sunday 18 April

Unsettled but turning less cold than recent days.

This weekend and the following week will see some changeable weather conditions across the UK as high and low pressure systems jostle for control over northern Europe. This weekend, a weak low will track across northern France and into Germany, bringing some cloudy and wet weather to the south-east on Saturday.
The rest of the country will still be under the influence of some Arctic air coming in from the north. It will be mostly sunny skies, but feel cold with scattered afternoon wintry showers. Sunday the colder air will spread into the southeast with some heavy afternoon wintry showers likely for England.

High pressure will then move across the country for the start of next week. This will keep things cold for a few days, but also bringing dry weather for the many. Scotland and Northern Ireland are the main exception here with some patchy rain and hill snow for western areas. A few showers are possible in western England and perhaps North Wales too. By Thursday high pressure will begin to shift into Scandinavia, causing our winds to shift to more southerly by Friday. This will moderate things from our cold start to April, finally bringing the temperatures back to near normal.

However, as the high moves away it will allow low pressure systems to return from the west. These will bring bands of rain and generally unsettled weather to most of the country along with some cooler air from the Atlantic. The good news is that although this air is colder than normal it does not originate on the Arctic ice sheet, so it won't feel quite as cold as it did for the start of April.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 25 April

Drier for some with changeable temperatures.

Unfortunately, as we head into late April the forecast gets a little trickier. The computer models have been particularly poor at pinning down high pressure in early April, and they are continuing this trend later in the month. This is largely due to the models struggling to resolve high pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic and bringing colder air. The good news is that we also use statistical forecasts based on historical weather patterns to help us produce the forecasts.

These are where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we have now to see what happens across Europe. For late-April, many of these forecasts are pointing in a similar direction, with good signals for high pressure to remain nearby or to the north. Following along from high pressure shifting northeast next week, we expect that in late April this high in Scandinavia will linger and begin to build north of Europe slowly. Meanwhile, the storm track will be in the North Atlantic and occasionally reach western and northern areas with weak weather fronts. The temperature and precipitation forecasts are tricky in this pattern and very sensitive to the high pressure.

But generally we expect a changeable week with the wettest weather in the northern half of the country and some dry, mild spells for southern areas. This isn't exactly a surprising forecast given that we are in the middle of spring. Confidence is low in the forecast and the details are likely to shift around a bit in future updates. But we have some encouraging signals for what to expect from the large-scale weather pattern at least.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 9 May

Slowly turning more settled and warmer.

The tail end of April and first part of May will be at the mercy of high pressure that should often find itself to the north or west, and low pressure to the south near Spain. The UK will be caught between these two large-scale pressure systems, so we will likely continue to see changeable weather. Again, we see some very poor performance from the computer models, so we are leaning a bit more than usual on our statistical guidance today. As we head into May we expect the weather to become increasingly more settled, dry, and warm.

One reason for the consistency in the statistical models comes from the strong signals from both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and how that relates to the weather pattern across the entire northern hemisphere. Some very warm sea surface temperatures near Japan have helped build a large, strong area of high pressure. Despite this high being on the other side of the planet, it is helping to create a wavy pattern in the storm track that extends across North American and the Atlantic Ocean.

This pattern will promote high pressure in the Atlantic to the west of Europe, where we have our own unusually warm waters around the Azores. So even though we have very low confidence for early May, there are some good signals that high pressure will continue to be a big player in the weather pattern. There is a risk (with a roughly 30% likelihood) that the high builds more into the western Atlantic closer to North America, which would tend to keep things unsettled for us throughout May.

Further ahead

Hopefully we will get some better performance from the computer models and increase our confidence a bit for the late April and early May outlook.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 15 Apr - Saturday 24 Apr

The most likely scenario for the start of this period is for mainly settled conditions to be in place across the country. Unsettled conditions with rain showers may spread erratically from the west at times. The heaviest and most prolonged rain as well as the strongest winds, are most likely for western and north-western areas, with eastern areas likely remaining drier and brighter. Temperatures will likely remain at or slightly below average at first, before recovering to potentially slightly above average for a time over the weekend. Confidence decreases after this, however towards the end of this period it will likely be turning less unsettled with more dry and bright interludes. Generally, it is expected to feel rather warm, although temperatures could be supressed in wetter areas.

Saturday 24 Apr - Saturday 8 May

Confidence remains low for this period, however, mixed and slowly evolving weather patterns, typical of spring, are most likely through the late-April into May. Fine and dry weather is likely to be more prevalent overall, especially during late-April, with this signal waning during May, although all areas are likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures probably close to average with some warmer spells are possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 16 Apr - Sunday 25 Apr

The most likely scenario for the start of this period is for mainly settled conditions to be in place across the country with high pressure dominating. Unsettled conditions with rain showers may affect the northwest during the weekend and at times through the rest of this period, with southeastern areas likely remaining drier and brighter. Temperatures will likely remain at or slightly below average at first, before recovering to potentially slightly above average at times. Confidence decreases after this, however towards the end of this period it will likely be turning less unsettled with more dry and bright interludes. Generally, it is expected to feel rather warm, although temperatures could be supressed in wetter areas.

Sunday 25 Apr - Sunday 9 May

Confidence remains low for this period, however, mixed and slowly evolving weather patterns, typical of spring, are most likely through the late-April into May. Fine and dry weather is likely to be more prevalent overall, especially during late-April, with this signal waning during May, although all areas are likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures probably close to average with some warmer spells are possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning gradually more settled and warmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 14 April – Sunday 18 April

Mostly dry and cold, but milder this weekend.

In a change from the previous forecast, the colder air that has been with us for most of March and April isn't quite finished yet and is likely to remain for the rest of this week. This is coming with high pressure though, so while it is colder than normal for mid-April, it's also mostly dry and settled too. Afternoons will see clouds develop for many with a slight chance of showers in a few spots, but most of the country will stay dry. Weak fronts nearby will keep Northern Ireland and western and northern Scotland mostly cloudy through Friday.

This weekend, high pressure overhead will begin to shift away into Scandinavia and decline. This will allow the weakened weather fronts from the Atlantic to slowly move into western parts of the UK, bringing cloudier skies, patchy rain, and also moderate the temperatures a little. We still expect temperatures to be below average this week, but it will be only slightly cooler than normal rather than several degrees below normal.

The big question is whether the patchy rain will spread much into England and Wales later in the weekend. A weak ridge of high pressure will extend into Southeast England from the North Sea, and this may be strong enough to keep the rain off to the west and north. Even if the weakened weather front pushes further east, any rain will be very light and patchy, leaving most places dry.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 25 April

Drier and settled with fresh Atlantic air

The computer models have become better aligned for late-April. They are also in agreement with our historical analogues (where we examine previous years since 1950 with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing now) so confidence has increased. High pressure is still expected to be in charge across northern Europe at the end of April and this will keep things dry, settled, and not nearly as cold as of late for the UK.

The temperature forecasts are tricky in this pattern and very sensitive to the area of high pressure, but generally we expect temperatures to be close to average for the time of year or perhaps a touch below and more settled weather. Weak weather fronts from the Atlantic may be able to clip northern or western areas at times, so it may not be completely dry and settled everywhere. Eastern and southern areas may not see much in the way of rain apart from the occasional light shower during the afternoons.

Confidence has improved to medium for the forecast with the strongest signals for high pressure to be the dominant weather feature. Confidence is a bit lower with regard to temperatures and there is roughly a 25% chance that it ends up cold again. If high pressure is too far northwest and closer to Iceland, northerly winds will transport Arctic air into the UK for the third time this spring. There is less support for this in the latest computer models, but we still need to keep an eye on it as the cold has been rather tenacious this year.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Slowly turning more settled and warmer

The tail end of April and first part of May will be at the mercy of high pressure that should often be to the north of Europe while low pressure lingers to the south near Spain. The UK will be caught between these two large-scale pressure systems so we are likely to continue to see changeable weather as the weather systems jostle for control.

Again, we see some very poor performance from the computer models, so we are leaning a bit more than usual on our historical guidance. There are some strong signals for high pressure to stick around nearby or overhead, so as we head into May we expect the weather to become increasingly settled, dry, and warm. The low near Spain will tend to send North African and Mediterranean air into France, and this is likely to reach southern areas of the UK too.

One reason for consistency in the statistical models comes from the strong signals in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and how that relates to the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere. Some very warm sea-surface temperatures near Japan have helped build a large, strong area of high pressure. Despite this area of high pressure being on the other side of the world, it is helping to create a wavy pattern in the storm track that extends across North America and the Atlantic Ocean. This pattern will promote high pressure in the Atlantic where we have unusually warm waters around the Azores.

So even though there is still low confidence for early May, there are some good signals that high pressure will continue to be a big player in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

Can we expect warmer and settled late-spring weather to develop through May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook