Yes that’s plausible and the way I’m thinking.  So the logical approach is not only to take great caution with vulnerable groups but to be mindful that it’s still the invisible enemy!  

Agree, Caz. I am still of the mind that regrettably we missed a vital trick with care homes. Here we have a known sample made up of our most vulnerable citizens - vulnerable for a variety of reasons: age, infirmity, disability etc. They are spread across the country; large, small and variously managed. They would have made an ideal first step for launching surveillance through testing and tracking of staff and inmates. This would have made a great project for our Public Health teams - a perfect model for informing our policies, and leading seamlessly into a mature national program of data collection. I don't like double guessing the experts, but IMO this is a shameful oversight that might well have avoided thousands of avoidable deaths and brought forward our countermeasures by weeks if not months. Best of all - we would have been putting the people in most immediate danger, including carers, to the front of the queue, highlighting their difficulties!

R.

AstraZeneca could begin supply of potential COVID-19 vaccine in September

AstraZeneca has said it has the capacity to manufacture one billion doses of the University of Oxford's potential COVID-19 vaccine and plans to begin supplying it in September. The drugs giant also said it has already taken orders for at least 400 million doses of the coronavirus jab it is developing with the university. It intends to negotiate further deals on capacity to "ensure the delivery of a globally accessible vaccine".

Results from an early stage clinical trial in southern England are expected shortly, it said. If those are successful, other trials will follow in a number of countries.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-astrazeneca-could-begin-supply-of-potential-covid-19-vaccine-in-september-11991968

On the 18th May Phil G said:-

"Let's cut to the chase here, there must be stats on white english dying from this. I was travelling along a packed Southend sea front yesterday where SD had gone out the window and I can tell you most people there weren't white english."

Video of said day:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD9jnsUjaOk

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

On the 18th May Phil G said:-

"Let's cut to the chase here, there must be stats on white english dying from this. I was travelling along a packed Southend sea front yesterday where SD had gone out the window and I can tell you most people there weren't white english."

Video of said day:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD9jnsUjaOk

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

Haha. Cherry picking! Okay, I was driving keeping my eyes on the road and just about every damn f that was crossing the road nearly getting run over to get to the beach wasn't white English I can assure you. I take it back part of the way, but those pictures themselves didn't tell the whole story either, as usual.

On the 18th May Phil G said:-

"Let's cut to the chase here, there must be stats on white english dying from this. I was travelling along a packed Southend sea front yesterday where SD had gone out the window and I can tell you most people there weren't white english."

Video of said day:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD9jnsUjaOk

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

 

You don't think he was temporarily blinded by a personal agenda, do you?

 

Agree, Caz. I am still of the mind that regrettably we missed a vital trick with care homes. Here we have a known sample made up of our most vulnerable citizens - vulnerable for a variety of reasons: age, infirmity, disability etc. They are spread across the country; large, small and variously managed. They would have made an ideal first step for launching surveillance through testing and tracking of staff and inmates. This would have made a great project for our Public Health teams - a perfect model for informing our policies, and leading seamlessly into a mature national program of data collection. I don't like double guessing the experts, but IMO this is a shameful oversight that might well have avoided thousands of avoidable deaths and brought forward our countermeasures by weeks if not months. Best of all - we would have been putting the people in most immediate danger, including carers, to the front of the queue, highlighting their difficulties!

R.

When you heard stories coming out of France or somewhere abroad before it really hit here on care homes you were thinking this is a bomb waiting to go off.

I can't see how a 2nd peak isn't "nailed on"  to be honest.

The  downward curve of  new cases in the latter stages  of the graphs is very gradual - which infers an R0 extremely  close to 1.  

Surely the relaxation of Social Distancing we have seen in the last period is enough to materially raise RO ?

Throughout April I was saying that reliable antigen mass testing studies (Austria, Iceland, Germany etc.) were showing tiny percentages of their populations to be infected. There were at the time some early antibody testing studies which were showing much larger percentages, but those were unreliable tests with low specificity  (too many false positives).

It was dismaying to hear at the time pundits and even some scientists speculating about 20% or even 30% etc. Once again this shows that any notion of herd immunity without a vaccination was a catastrophic misjudgment and the correct approach all along was early and aggressive intervention in order to contain the epidemic and buy time until the possible vaccination.

 

 

Bad news all round as wouldn’t this also suggest the case fatality rate is high?

Nicola Sturgeon confirms 105 new cases and 37 new deaths 

51 people in ICU with confirmed or suspected Covid-19

Nicola Sturgeon confirms 105 new cases and 37 new deaths 

51 people in ICU with confirmed or suspected Covid-19

Did she give a breakdown of how many died in hospital or care homes? People who go into ICU don't all die and some are there for many days, if not weeks. That would suggest to me that the number of deaths in care homes (or personal homes) is higher than the number of deaths in hospital?

 

Haha. Cherry picking! Okay, I was driving keeping my eyes on the road and just about every damn f that was crossing the road nearly getting run over to get to the beach wasn't white English I can assure you. I take it back part of the way, but those pictures themselves didn't tell the whole story either, as usual.

Just saying. I am a stickler for fact checking. 

Nicola Sturgeon confirms Scotland will move from lockdown to phase one from May 28th if they don't see any unexpected rises 

• More outdoor activity permitted


• Sunbathing permitted


• You can meet 1 person from another household staying 6-ft apart


• Golf, tennis and bowls are able to resume


• Waste and recycling to resume


• Garden centres able to reopen though cafés etc must stay closed


• NHS services will slowly resume

I can't see how a 2nd peak isn't "nailed on"  to be honest.

The  downward curve of  new cases in the latter stages  of the graphs is very gradual - which infers an R0 extremely  close to 1.  

Surely the relaxation of Social Distancing we have seen in the last period is enough to materially raise RO ?

Agree with this completely. However, I'm beginning to wonder whether I'm missing something because there doesn't seem any great concern about a second wave at the moment.

Just had an em from the guy who owns and manages the gym where I am a member. He expects to reopen in early July. 

Nicola Sturgeon confirms Scotland will move from lockdown to phase one from May 28th if they don't see any unexpected rises 

• More outdoor activity permitted


• Sunbathing permitted


• You can meet 1 person from another household staying 6-ft apart


• Golf, tennis and bowls are able to resume


• Waste and recycling to resume


• Garden centres able to reopen though cafés etc must stay closed


• NHS services will slowly resume

Do people sunbathe in Scotland?

 

Do people sunbathe in Scotland?

Of course they do, that's an outrageous question. Okay, they call it sitting in the rain with a coat on, but it's essentially the same thing

Nicola Sturgeon confirms Scotland will move from lockdown to phase one from May 28th if they don't see any unexpected rises 

• More outdoor activity permitted


• Sunbathing permitted


• You can meet 1 person from another household staying 6-ft apart


• Golf, tennis and bowls are able to resume


• Waste and recycling to resume


• Garden centres able to reopen though cafés etc must stay closed


• NHS services will slowly resume

You can actually meet one other household not just one person

 

Agree with this completely. However, I'm beginning to wonder whether I'm missing something because there doesn't seem any great concern about a second wave at the moment.

Probably because the 'R' number talked about on here, and by media expert's is based on the increase number of registered cases that have come about due to the increased testing. I suspect the government and their experts would have already factored in this  probability before making the decisions to lift restrictions. 

They will be monitoring what is happening in hospitals because they don't want the NHS to be overwhelmed - which didn't even happen with first wave.