If you think that the CET figure for this month is rather disappointing from a "winter" perspective, it is even worse here in Scotland which reflects the fact that high pressure centred to our south has all too often, resulted in us experiencing more mild nights and fewer frosts during this month than in the CET region.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, the mean minimum temperature for this month as at 10am this morning was 3.2°C with an anomaly of +2.1°C.

The mean maximum temperature for this month at that station as at 10am this morning was 8.5°C with an anomaly of +1.9°C whereas the overall average temperature at that station during this month was 6.0°C with an anomaly of 2.1°C.

This means that our average temperature here in Edinburgh during this month is actually the same as the latest provisional CET itself as of yesterday and since this is for a station here in Scotland, the temperature anomaly for this station is even higher than what it is for the provisional CET itself.

Furthermore, there is no downwards correction for the above data for Edinburgh Gogarbank as there will be for the final CET value which makes our situation even worse.

 

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Looking like the final figure will be around 5.8c that would make it 1.1c colder than December 2018

Met Office Hadley         6.0c.        Anomaly       1.3c Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                      5.74c       Anomaly       0.74c. Updated  Every 30 mims.

Netweather                   6.37c       Anomaly       1.28c. Updated  Every 60 mins.

Peasedown St John       6.9c.       Anomaly     0.93c.      

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Happy New Year to you all

My final CET estimate for December is 5.73C.

Although we had high upper air temperatures in the past few days this did not translate to the double digit temperatures that were expected on the ground, at least not in the CET area. Of course it was very warm in parts of Scotland due to the Foehn effect. 

So Gusty will not only win the annual CET competition but may also win the December competition.

Happy New Year!  Thanks GW, for all the time and effort you put into this competition, which is enjoyed by so many of us!   

Well done Gusty!   

Commiserations to those who very nearly did it and thank you for the entertainment!  2019 has been a great competition with some excellent predictions, giving the best of you a run for your money!  I’m no competition but I get great enjoyment from spectating!  
Keep it up guys!      

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Happy New Year!  Thanks GW, for all the time and effort you put into this competition, which is enjoyed by so many of us!   

Well done Gusty!   

Commiserations to those who very nearly did it and thank you for the entertainment!  2019 has been a great competition with some excellent predictions, giving the best of you a run for your money!  I’m no competition but I get great enjoyment from spectating!  
Keep it up guys!      

Ditto that! 

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Happy New Year to you all

My final CET estimate for December is 5.73C.

Although we had high upper air temperatures in the past few days this did not translate to the double digit temperatures that were expected on the ground, at least not in the CET area. Of course it was very warm in parts of Scotland due to the Foehn effect. 

So Gusty will not only win the annual CET competition but may also win the December competition.

Final December CET has come in at 5.80C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

Congratulations to Hungry Tiger who predicted the exact figure.

Annual CET competition - December update

As expected Gusty takes the crown this year reaching the top of the table for the first time in 2019. He also takes the title of having the lowest cumulative prediction error over a calendar year beating the previous best figure of 5.99C set by Whether Idle.

marting comes in second nearly 0.8C behind our winner. GezM is a non mover in third. Our leader since July, Col, drops down to fourth. I manage to scrape into the top 5. A perennial top performer in this competition, Darren S, climbs into the top 10 for the first time this year.

After gambling in December, Ally Pally Snowman comfortably takes this year's wooden spoon.

Thanks to everyone for taking part. We now look forward to a new competition for 2020. Entries for January close at 23:59 tonight.

Direct link to full sized chart

Monthly prediction errors Jan - Dec

Cells in yellow show errors less than 0.5C. Those in orange are missed predictions.

Direct link to full sized table

Monthly positions in the table Dec - Jan

Direct link to full sized table

Well done to Steve.  No mean feat.   Commiserations to Col and thanks to Global Warming!

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Here are the charts for December

CHART1

CHART2

CHART3

4th?? After all that down to 4th!
But well done Gusty, it's a marathon not a sprint after all, unfortunately I fell at the last hurdle.

And apparently I've won the annual competition!
But it does rather feel like winning the Carabao Cup when you just missed out on the Champions League....

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Well done Steve. After many good years that is well deserved. I feel for Col who was in the lead for so long. Also congratulations to Martin for grabbing 2nd place. December turned out much milder than I expected.
Finally, a thanks to Global for keeping this great competition going. 👍😊😃

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Thanks all. I've finally won it after a couple of near misses in recent years !

It is a marathon, that's for sure. Col had a fantastic year setting a good pace, finishing out of the medals after a very strong 10 months feels a little harsh but that's the competition.

I was tempted in late October to gamble my November prediction in an attempt to close a gap that at that stage looked difficult to close. I'm glad I stuck to my original game plan of focusing on my own game and ignoring the scores around me.

I'm delighted to also have also taken the minimum error title of 5.88. Until recently I had always doubted Whether Idles 5.99 could be bettered.

I'll let you into a secret. I was really struggling to decide what to predict in December. There was a colder vibe going on after a few cool weeks. I had narrowed my mental prediction to somewhere between 4.4 and 4.8. In the shower on the deadline day a big bold 5.7 appeared in my head. It was so vivid and clear I put my faith in it and went with it. 

Its a great competition. A healthy blend of skill, experience, luck, dedication and (maybe) some divine intervention are all needed.

Happy New Year everyone.

Here's to another great competition in 2020. 

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Well done Gusty, an excellent performance 👍😀 Close but no cigar. 
Thanks again to GW for all the hard work and monthly data to guide us along the way
Martin

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 Nice winner’s speech there Steve!  That’s what I love the most about this competition, it’s so friendly and respectful!  

Note to Col - choose your predictions in the shower!  

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Well done Steve and Global for last years comp 🙂

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Well done Gusty! 

Just a query to GW, you say that the orange cells in your 1st table are missed predictions & on the table it indicates that i missed February, I've just read through my sent items & I definitely submitted my prediction to you of 4.73, unless of course you mean something else entirely? Not that it makes any difference to any outcomes, just wondering why it shows that my prediction for that month is lost/missing. 

Also big thanks again!

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Well done Steve, and thanks Simon!

Are you able to provide a table which shows the finishing positions of people over the last X years? I think I won it in 2018 and Steve came 2nd, or was that 2017?

I was glad to climb into the Top 10 at last, and surprised I did given December was my second biggest error of the year. I obviously didn't take a shower at the right time as Steve was originally thinking what I was. Those months which start off one way and then swing widely in the other direction, like December, are tricky to predict.

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Congrats to all who fared well this month and in 2019 overall.

I must admit, Gusty's report of the very accurate figure beaming into his mind out of nowhere is a bit unsettling to this hardcore scientist .

For me, 2019 became all about recovering from a terrible first half. I'm relieved to have made it into the top 15 having been over twice as far down back then. 

It's all relative .

 

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Well done Gusty and the other podium placers - and special mention to Col, who made a bold gambit for December that didn't come off.

 

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