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Offline Gavin P  
#461 Posted : 22 May 2020 10:16:52(UTC)
Gavin P

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Accuweather's summer forecast is out

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2020-europe-summer-forecast/740540

Quite an odd headline for the UK and Ireland "Stormy Periods" - sounds more like an Autumn/Winter forecast lol!

Anyway the upshot is they don't think we're going to have as hot as summer as we've had for the past couple of years with much more in the way of Atlantic-driven weather.

Edited by user 22 May 2020 10:37:26(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Online Gavin D  
#462 Posted : 22 May 2020 14:57:33(UTC)
Gavin D

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Wednesday 27 May - Friday 5 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Saturday 6 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Online moomin75  
#463 Posted : 22 May 2020 15:35:44(UTC)
moomin75

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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Wednesday 27 May - Friday 5 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Saturday 6 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

If GFS verifies, this will quickly be dropped for more unsettled outlook.

Witney, Oxfordshire

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Offline SJV  
#464 Posted : 22 May 2020 15:46:44(UTC)
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Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

If GFS verifies, this will quickly be dropped for more unsettled outlook.

A big if as I'm sure you know  The Met Office aren't quite that reactionary, and all the better for it. The 06z was an outlier in its latter stages with the mean looking OK.

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Online Gavin D  
#465 Posted : 23 May 2020 14:56:23(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,249
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Thursday 28 May - Saturday 6 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Sunday 7 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Brian Gaze  
#466 Posted : 23 May 2020 15:28:07(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Posts: 49,562

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Thursday 28 May - Saturday 6 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Sunday 7 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

At the present time they may as well template these and put "Temperatures....above average".

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Gavin D  
#467 Posted : 24 May 2020 10:49:46(UTC)
Gavin D

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Western Australia prepares for 'once-in-a-decade' storm

 

Quote

Australia's western coast is being battered by a huge storm, which is heading for the main city of Perth. Torrential rains, strong winds and waves of up to eight metres (26ft) are forecast in some areas. The severe weather is the result of the remnants of tropical cyclone Mangga interacting with a cold front, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. A senior official in Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) said it would be a "once-in-a-decade" storm. "Normally our storms come from the south west and this will come from the north west," DFES acting assistant commissioner Jon Broomhall told journalists.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52787152

Online Gavin D  
#468 Posted : 24 May 2020 10:50:47(UTC)
Gavin D

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often warm and dry but turning more showery later

_________________________________

Saturday 23 May – Sunday 31 May

Windy and wet in the north, then drier and warmer

This weekend begins on an unseasonably wet and windy note in the north - the result of a deep area of low pressure tracking just to the north of Scotland. With trees in full-leaf, strong winds across northwest Scotland on Saturday presents a risk of disruption to travel and services. Northwest Scotland will also see very high rainfall totals this weekend, with showers and longer spells of heavy rain throughout Saturday and into Sunday.

Meanwhile, further south, Sunday will turn increasingly fine, with winds easing and some sunshine later in the day. This heralds the quick return of high pressure from the southwest, and high pressure will largely be in charge for much of this week. England and Wales can expect some dry and sunny days, and temperatures will climb into the mid-20s Celsius once more. Whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland will also see some dry and warm days this week, areas of cloud and rain look set to move in from the west at times.

There is a chance that rain could also reach further south and east later this week, but it seems more likely that high pressure will block any spells of wet weather reaching into England and Wales. With much of the southeast of England recording little to no rainfall so far this spring, the lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Monday 1 June – Sunday 7 June

Chance of rain in the north, otherwise dry

The start of June marks the beginning of the meteorological summer, and the strength of the sun will continue to build ahead of the longest day of the year later in the month.

High pressure is expected to build across the North Atlantic Ocean and extend eastwards into the British Isles for much of this week, bringing plenty of dry and fine weather. However, low pressure still expected to the north of the UK, across Iceland and Scandinavia, and will may threaten the north of the UK with rain and breezier conditions at times. That said, any rain is unlikely to be very prolonged or widespread, and rain may stay entirely confined to more northern parts of the UK.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the temperatures for the week. A northwesterly flow may be in place earlier in the week, which would allow cooler air mass to feed in, bringing a few days of temperatures below the seasonal average. This is unlikely to be anything unbenign though, and it will likely trend warmer later in the week, as high pressure continues to build overhead. There is even a chance later in the week that a more southerly flow will develop over the British Isles, and give some very warm days.

Monday 8 June – Sunday 21 June

Warm but turning more showery at times

Heading into mid-June, it still looks as though high pressure will often be near to the UK. As a result, we can expect strong and warm sunshine at times. With warmth spreading in from the near-continent at times, some very warm days seem likely. However, it looks as though high pressure areas will gradually move a little further north and east. Over England and Wales, this should occasionally allow showery weather to spread in from the south. In any warmer and humid weather, we could even see some thunderstorms. Further north, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there is a greater likelihood of drier than average conditions persisting.

The main uncertainty regarding this period is exactly where the high pressure will become centred. There are chances that the high stays directly over the UK and this would lead to a continuation of the unusually dry and settled weather we have been experiencing throughout spring. After such a dry few months, this scenario would lead to extremely dry soils and pastures across the country.

Further ahead

We will have a closer look at the potentially very warm conditions possible in mid-June, and discuss whether we can expect any meaningful rainfall throughout the next month. Could we be looking at the start of a drought for some?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Online Gavin D  
#469 Posted : 24 May 2020 15:48:56(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,249
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Friday 29 May - Sunday 7 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Monday 8 Jun - Monday 22 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Online Gavin D  
#470 Posted : 25 May 2020 15:04:07(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,249
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Saturday 30 May - Monday 8 Jun

Much of central and southeast England should see a good deal of dry and settled weather next weekend with plenty of sunshine, though a little breezy. Temperatures will generally be very warm, but there is the risk of some thunderstorms breaking out at times. Cloud and outbreaks of rain seem most likely for Scotland and some other northern and western areas, where it will probably feel cooler. Looking ahead, there appears to be a shift to a more unsettled regime at first. Cloud and spells of rain may spread to most parts of the UK, but will predominately remain in the northwest. Temperatures should return to around average and may go slightly below in places.

Tuesday 9 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Online Gavin D  
#471 Posted : 26 May 2020 15:01:59(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,249
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Sunday 31 May - Tuesday 9 Jun

A fine and sunny day for many on Sunday but the chance of seeing a few heavy showers in the north. Heading into June it looks likely that there will be a continuation of settled weather at first with most areas staying dry although the chance of seeing some rain or showers increases, especially in the north and west. Very warm initially but temperatures probably trending back closer to average. Confidence lowers during early June but signals show a shift to more changeable weather with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. Despite the spells of wetter weather there will be some drier and brighter interludes for most. Temperatures likely closer to around average for many but perhaps staying warmer for some across the south.

Wednesday 10 Jun - Wednesday 24 Jun

The start of this period will see a continuation of more changeable conditions with spells of dry and sunny weather interspersed with showers or some longer spells of rain. Showers or rain are most likely to be seen in the northwest of the UK and they may be accompanied by strong winds at times also. Through mid to late June overall drier and warmer than average weather looks to be more favourable in the south than wetter and cooler conditions. Northern parts however will likely see temperatures sticking around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Online moomin75  
#472 Posted : 26 May 2020 19:17:01(UTC)
moomin75

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Ridiculous flip flopping from a redundant Met Office. Honestly, what is the point of these MRFs. They change pretty much on a daily basis. They flip and flop as wildly as the models. The constant changes means in theory they can't be wrong, because one way or another they cover all bases.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Online Gavin D  
#473 Posted : 27 May 2020 14:52:52(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 11,249
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Monday 1 Jun - Wednesday 10 Jun

The start of June will see a continuation of the current settled weather with most places staying dry and sunny. However, there is an increasing chance of seeing some rain or showers at times, especially across northern and western parts. It will be very warm initially but temperatures are likely to begin to return to normal towards the middle of the period. Towards the end of the period there may be a shift to more changeable conditions, with an increased chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. The showers or spells of rain are likley to be most frequent across the northwest and possibly accompanied by strong winds.. Any wetter periods are likely to be interspersed with some drier and brighter weather.

Thursday 11 Jun - Thursday 25 Jun

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of more changeable conditions with spells of dry and sunny weather interspersed with showers or some longer spells of rain. Showers or rain are most likely to be seen in the northwest of the UK and they may be accompanied by strong winds at times too. Through mid to late June, overall drier and warmer than average weather looks to be more favourable in the south than wetter and cooler conditions. Northern parts however will likely see temperatures sticking around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline mulattokid  
#474 Posted : 27 May 2020 16:34:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Ridiculous flip flopping from a redundant Met Office. Honestly, what is the point of these MRFs. They change pretty much on a daily basis. They flip and flop as wildly as the models. The constant changes means in theory they can't be wrong, because one way or another they cover all bases.

 

Which is why it is pointless to make definitive, provocative even, black & white statements about the weather in 10 days time or more.  

My heart drops when I see northerlies predicted in summer, but they are often overplayed and even redirected by the time that period arrives.

Edited by user 27 May 2020 16:37:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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