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Offline Bertwhistle  
#161 Posted : 22 July 2019 17:51:24(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,150
Location: Central Southern England

Model output (old): how o Earth did Southampton get 3 x 35°C days out of this? (especially before the big surface warm up).

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1976&maand=06&dag=28

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline SJV  
#162 Posted : 22 July 2019 17:56:03(UTC)
SJV

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Posts: 18,689
Man
Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

GFS 12z mean has 27-30C widely across England on Friday now. The mean! Lots of members now extending the heat into the weekend 🙂

Are we on the cusp of prolonged heat?

Model output summaries without the agenda.
Offline Arcus  
#163 Posted : 22 July 2019 18:09:20(UTC)
Arcus

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Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,819
Man
United Kingdom
Location: North Yorkshire

ECM back into minor trough disruption mode on the 12z. Spicy.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline Col  
#164 Posted : 22 July 2019 18:16:03(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,139
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 Go to Quoted Post

 

I remember 1 July 2015 being quite cloudy - indeed we even had some very large raindrops in the afternoon and the temperature fell no lower than 28C. Very strange experience.

June 29th this year was the same, I suspect the two setups were very similar, both essentially one-day wonders. I mentioned this in the daily notes I take. They say -Some sun in the morning until mid afternoon, then mainly cloudy with some brightness at times – splashy raindrops at 28.6C!

I was sitting outside and I remember the drops evaporated very quickly after hitting the gound. If you weren't outside at the time, you'd probably never have realised it was happening. I wonder what the highest temperature in the UK is that rain has been observed, probably no higher than the low 30s I would imagine. But that is obviously a discussion for another thread.....

Edited by user 22 July 2019 18:19:21(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#165 Posted : 22 July 2019 18:52:47(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Posts: 3,212
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Apparently the ECM has followed ICON and gone with 34C on Thursday
Mark

Beckton, SE London

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#166 Posted : 22 July 2019 18:54:10(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
Apparently the ECM has followed ICON and gone with 34C on Thursday

 

It's got 36c quite widely  Essex and Kent. 

 

Offline Quantum  
#167 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:01:02(UTC)
Quantum

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Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 18,285

ECM maxing out at 36C, 1C cooler than before.

 

Tactical voting information during the general election campaign for Leave voters

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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#168 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:02:56(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

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Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

 

 

It's got 36c quite widely  Essex and Kent. 

 

Oh that’s good news. It wasn’t a HD view so couldn’t make it out properly

Mark

Beckton, SE London

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#169 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:10:19(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Man
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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Oh that’s good news. It wasn’t a HD view so couldn’t make it out properly

 

ECM was 2c below the UK max today so 38c remains a real prospect for Thursday.  The heat looks a bit more west as well so maybe Heathrow and northolt the stations to watch. 

 

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#170 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:14:06(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 6,201
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

ECM also has another mini plume next week high 20s in the SE Monday to Wednesday. 

Offline Polar Low  
#171 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:21:18(UTC)
Polar Low

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Location: Chelmsford Essex

To be honest it’s a fab summer run with the scadi high winning out.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

ECM also has another mini plume next week high 20s in the SE Monday to Wednesday. 

[/quote

Offline Arcus  
#172 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:31:49(UTC)
Arcus

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Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,819
Man
United Kingdom
Location: North Yorkshire

It's interesting that the ECM gives the block more cujones... it's typical of the way it handles winter blocking in the same area, and more readily diverts the energy from the Atlantic under the block. There may be an emerging trend here toward blocking pushing back post t+144. Fascinating times... meanwhile lots of heat and storms to come.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline Polar Low  
#173 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:35:48(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 3,779
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Yep, you have to say also Ben that’s a fab gfs set for London always on the warm/ v warm side.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post
It's interesting that the ECM gives the block more cujones... it's typical of the way it handles winter blocking in the same area, and more readily diverts the energy from the Atlantic under the block. There may be an emerging trend here toward blocking pushing back post t+144. Fascinating times... meanwhile lots of heat and storms to come.

Edited by user 22 July 2019 19:37:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Downpour  
#174 Posted : 22 July 2019 19:50:04(UTC)
Downpour

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 413
Location: London E4

Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Yep, you have to say also Ben that’s a fab gfs set for London always on the warm/ v warm side.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

 

 

that’s a remarkable suite. Crikey. Warm, hot even, in the SE this weekend?

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Offline RobN  
#175 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:00:46(UTC)
RobN

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,094
United Kingdom
Location: South Cambridgeshire

A further notable softening of the cool down on the 12z GEFS - a process which started with the 0Z.

In fact on some members there is barely a cool down at all.

Interesting times...

 

Rob

Sometimes a few miles north of Cambridge on a hill in the flatlands of East Anglia 15m ASL

Other times in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL.

Offline White Meadows  
#176 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:13:20(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,094
Location: West Sussex

UKM extended going for continued HP influence for the south east:

https://amz.nwstatic.co....592fa08bd069154848d5.png

Where’s Ian today? He’s been awfully quiet the past 48 hours.

Offline Polar Low  
#177 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:16:45(UTC)
Polar Low

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Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

A fab ecm mean with High pressure winning  out as we head into August 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

 

Offline Arcus  
#178 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:18:51(UTC)
Arcus

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,819
Man
United Kingdom
Location: North Yorkshire

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post
UKM extended going for continued HP influence for the south east:
https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/ukm2.2019020500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.3f8c82dac593592fa08bd069154848d5.png

Where’s Ian today? He’s been awfully quiet the past 48 hours.

That chart is not the extended chart from the UMKO run that we normally see. There's no such thing as a T+168 chart on the deterministic run, just yet ()

That chart is an ensemble run from the UKMO Unified Model MOGREPS-M ensemble suite - the Control Run most likely. 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Offline Polar Low  
#179 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:20:14(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,779
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Indeed D P also very dry for S/E

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour Go to Quoted Post

 

 

that’s a remarkable suite. Crikey. Warm, hot even, in the SE this weekend?

Offline Brian Gaze  
#180 Posted : 22 July 2019 20:29:23(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 50,122

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post

That chart is an ensemble run from the UKMO Unified Model MOGREPS-M ensemble suite - the Control Run most likely. 

 This is one of those questions that gets raised every few months. Next up must be the turn of the "the UM 144 is widely considered a joke in the business". 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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